By Elizabeth Shackelford
Argentina has been pummeled by one economic crisis after another for a generation. It has the third-highest inflation rate in the world and a bad habit of defaulting on debt, and 40% of its population is living in poverty.
The country's political class has failed to find a way out, and its people are angry. It's no wonder that a radical outsider pulled more votes than any other candidate in the recent presidential primary.
Javier Milei, an anti-establishment libertarian economist and former TV commentator, shocked the nation by securing 30% of the vote. In the October election, he will face the two other candidates who secured enough votes to qualify, and a likely runoff thereafter will determine the president.
Milei is a capitalist extremist who wants the government totally out of the economy. He wants to adopt the dollar as Argentina's legal tender, close the central bank, and privatize public education and health care. He's even argued for legalizing the sale of human organs and, unsurprisingly, claims climate change is a lie.
His pitch to privatize might make sense since so many of Argentina's financial problems lie in unaffordable government services. The country has heavy subsidies on health care, energy, universities and public transportation. A global economic slowdown and the COVID-19 crisis only magnified existing economic troubles. Slashing public benefits isn't so popular, though, when poverty is high and people are struggling to make ends meet. Simply reining in spending wouldn't have secured this enthusiasm.
Milei's appeal is more a vote against the establishment than a vote for anything in particular. And it draws attention to an acute problem facing democracies around the world: Good governance and good politics don't always align. It's hard to make the case for hard, long-term solutions in a sound bite. Compromise and checks and balances throw breaks on rash, emotional decisions, but that slows everything down. Sometimes, voters are sympathetic to a slow pace. When they're angry, they aren't.
Milei is just the latest populist to ride this wave of anger. It's what drove Donald Trump to the White House in 2016 and is the source of his enduring appeal to part of the U.S. population today. Recep Tayyip Erdogan rallied that anger to continue his rule despite Turkey's own economic slump. Then-United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson rallied the masses against the constraints of European Union membership without offering anything in return.
These populist leaders all secured support by laying blame rather than offering real solutions. In Argentina, since no one is offering real solutions, Milei is even more appealing in comparison. This is particularly true with the younger population, where he finds much of his support. Youth unemployment is nearing 19%, far higher than that of the rest of the population. The members of this angry constituency have no stake in a system that has been broken their entire lives, so they aren't concerned about the consequences of blowing it up.
The establishment offers two options, neither promising a credible path to a better future. The governing coalition is Peronist, a political movement that also had populist origins and has dominated politics in Argentina for decades. Its candidate, Economy Minister Sergio Massa, would likely continue the modest reforms that have been insufficient to turn the country's fate around. It finished third.
Center-right opposition candidate Patricia Bullrich presents a shift, but her coalition looks quite establishment by comparison to Milei.
Milei's surprise win in the primary will undoubtedly mobilize those who fear his extreme policy proposals. But will it be enough to wake up Argentina's political and governing class?
Unfortunately, the economic woes facing Argentina have no easy fixes. Even the smartest recovery efforts will require sacrifice and years to take root, and democratic politicians are rarely accorded trust and power long enough for that kind of reform. Milei's empty promises will lead only to harder times ahead, should he rise to power. But since populist political leaders tend to weaken checks and balances, and Argentina's aren't strong to begin with, he might be hard to rein in, or vote out, if he does.
Argentina's poor-performing political dynasties are to blame for the popularity of Milei's extreme propositions. Hopefully this acts as a wake-up call, so those who understand how to govern will work harder to do so and to find new answers to win back the trust of the people. But if the alternative is only more of the same, who can blame those who are seduced by Milei's rallying cry?
Elizabeth Shackelford is a senior fellow on U.S. foreign policy with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. She was previously a U.S. diplomat. This article was published in the Chicago Tribune and distributed by Tribune Content Agency.
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