By Kim Sang-woo
The recent successes of the Ukrainian counter-offensive forced Russian troops to retreat from large areas of the northeastern, and southern regions of Ukraine, inflicting humiliating defeats on Russia.
The Kremlin hurried its orchestrated "referendum" in occupied areas and annexed them as Russian territories. Moscow says that it will view a Ukrainian attack on them as an act of aggression and will respond accordingly.
Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the stakes further by mobilizing reservists up to at least 300,000. But the move is proving widely unpopular, with tens of thousands fleeing the country and fueling massive nationwide protests and violence that threatens to destabilize the country.
Quickly running out of options, Putin appears to be increasingly erratic and is tempted to use nuclear weapons to avoid defeat, which could threaten his 22-year rule.
He has repeatedly talked about using nuclear weapons with terrifying ease. He has said Moscow's enemies would die before even having time to repent their sins, and acknowledged that nuclear war would be catastrophic, "but why would we need a world without Russia?"
What is happening in Ukraine is that a nuclear-armed country is carrying out major conventional military actions and expecting its nuclear capability will prevent outside intervention.
This is a serious problem for international security. The world should not allow a nuclear-armed country to conduct conventional wars with impunity, slaughter tens of thousands of people and seize and annex territory, because its nuclear arsenal prevents a strong military response.
Many experts asserted that Russia would not invade Ukraine, yet it did, highlighting the very real risk that Putin could also use nuclear weapons, particularly if Moscow continues to lose the war.
President Joe Biden recently urged Putin not to use nuclear weapons a move that would end the 77 years-long taboo and alter the course of history, with potentially horrific costs.
The idea that nuclear deterrence allows conventional aggression is not how most people think of nuclear deterrence. Most observers see deterrence based on the terrifying threat of nuclear annihilation, the ever-present risk of mutually assured destruction (MAD).
Ukraine changed that. It turns out nuclear weapons don't "keep the peace." On the contrary, they enable conventional conflicts where escalation to the "ultimate weapon" seems a real possibility.
The Ukraine war shows nuclear deterrence does not work as most often imagine, and the world is now a much more dangerous place.
North Korea has strengthened relations with Russia, blaming the U.S. for the crisis and decrying the West's "hegemonic policy" as justifying military action by Russia in Ukraine to protect itself.
North Korea also used the war as an opportunity to accelerate its own weapons development, testing dozens of missiles, including its long-range ballistic missiles since 2017, thus exploiting a divide in the United Nations Security Council, where Russia and China have blocked Washington's attempts to tighten sanctions on Pyongyang.
North Korea has heightened its testing activity with repeated threats of nuclear conflict with Seoul and Washington.
On Sept. 9, North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly passed a law that further enshrined the country's status as a nuclear power and authorized the preemptive use of nuclear weapons over a broad range of scenarios, if its leadership were to be threatened.
Sung Kim, the Biden administration's special representative for North Korea, met with his South Korean counterpart Kim Gunn in Seoul on Sept. 22, where they expressed, "serious concern" over the North's escalating nuclear doctrine spelled out in the new law, South Korea's foreign ministry said.
The diplomats reaffirmed Washington's commitment to defend South Korea in the event of a nuclear war with the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear.
They also reiterated their assessment that North Korea is gearing up to conduct its 7th nuclear test and discussed "stern" countermeasures to such an action, the ministry added.
South Korea has its own preemptive option with its "Kill Chain" system, which uses precise conventional weapons such as cruise and ballistic missiles to rapidly target North Korea's leadership before it can give a launch order to nuclear forces. Kill Chain has been in development for years, but the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has been particularly vocal about the system in recent months.
Taken together, North Korea's nuclear policy law and South Korea's Kill Chain system paint a worrying picture for nuclear stability on the Korean peninsula. In a crisis or conflict, both sides would be tempted to escalate quickly and decisively to preempt the other's preemption strategy.
South Korea has been a willing partner in the U.S.-led coalition to condemn and sanction Russia for its illegal invasion of Ukraine and the war crimes it has committed since the beginning of the war.
Moreover, South Korea is paying close attention to how the United States and others respond to the invasion of a non-nuclear country by a nuclear-armed neighbor as well as how Russia employs nuclear posturing to threaten against intervention by third parties.
The Russian submarine carrying the Poseidon nuclear bomb known as the 'apocalypse weapon' is reported to be heading out to the North Sea for testing. The train attached to the Russian Defense Ministry's department responsible for nuclear material was sighted moving to the frontlines in Ukraine.
If Putin actually carries out his threat to use nuclear weapons, and successfully achieves his intended goal of turning the course of the war, it will have serious repercussions that will also affect both the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait.
I wonder if the politicians in South Korea, bickering about mediocre issues, as if they were matters of life and death, understand the seriousness of the situation we are facing ?? what it means to our national security, and the economy. For all our sake, I sincerely hope so.
Kim Sang-woo (swkim54@hotmail.com), former lawmaker, is currently chairman of the East Asia Cultural Project. He is also a member of the board of directors at the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.
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The Kremlin hurried its orchestrated "referendum" in occupied areas and annexed them as Russian territories. Moscow says that it will view a Ukrainian attack on them as an act of aggression and will respond accordingly.
Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the stakes further by mobilizing reservists up to at least 300,000. But the move is proving widely unpopular, with tens of thousands fleeing the country and fueling massive nationwide protests and violence that threatens to destabilize the country.
Quickly running out of options, Putin appears to be increasingly erratic and is tempted to use nuclear weapons to avoid defeat, which could threaten his 22-year rule.
He has repeatedly talked about using nuclear weapons with terrifying ease. He has said Moscow's enemies would die before even having time to repent their sins, and acknowledged that nuclear war would be catastrophic, "but why would we need a world without Russia?"
What is happening in Ukraine is that a nuclear-armed country is carrying out major conventional military actions and expecting its nuclear capability will prevent outside intervention.
This is a serious problem for international security. The world should not allow a nuclear-armed country to conduct conventional wars with impunity, slaughter tens of thousands of people and seize and annex territory, because its nuclear arsenal prevents a strong military response.
Many experts asserted that Russia would not invade Ukraine, yet it did, highlighting the very real risk that Putin could also use nuclear weapons, particularly if Moscow continues to lose the war.
President Joe Biden recently urged Putin not to use nuclear weapons a move that would end the 77 years-long taboo and alter the course of history, with potentially horrific costs.
The idea that nuclear deterrence allows conventional aggression is not how most people think of nuclear deterrence. Most observers see deterrence based on the terrifying threat of nuclear annihilation, the ever-present risk of mutually assured destruction (MAD).
Ukraine changed that. It turns out nuclear weapons don't "keep the peace." On the contrary, they enable conventional conflicts where escalation to the "ultimate weapon" seems a real possibility.
The Ukraine war shows nuclear deterrence does not work as most often imagine, and the world is now a much more dangerous place.
North Korea has strengthened relations with Russia, blaming the U.S. for the crisis and decrying the West's "hegemonic policy" as justifying military action by Russia in Ukraine to protect itself.
North Korea also used the war as an opportunity to accelerate its own weapons development, testing dozens of missiles, including its long-range ballistic missiles since 2017, thus exploiting a divide in the United Nations Security Council, where Russia and China have blocked Washington's attempts to tighten sanctions on Pyongyang.
North Korea has heightened its testing activity with repeated threats of nuclear conflict with Seoul and Washington.
On Sept. 9, North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly passed a law that further enshrined the country's status as a nuclear power and authorized the preemptive use of nuclear weapons over a broad range of scenarios, if its leadership were to be threatened.
Sung Kim, the Biden administration's special representative for North Korea, met with his South Korean counterpart Kim Gunn in Seoul on Sept. 22, where they expressed, "serious concern" over the North's escalating nuclear doctrine spelled out in the new law, South Korea's foreign ministry said.
The diplomats reaffirmed Washington's commitment to defend South Korea in the event of a nuclear war with the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear.
They also reiterated their assessment that North Korea is gearing up to conduct its 7th nuclear test and discussed "stern" countermeasures to such an action, the ministry added.
South Korea has its own preemptive option with its "Kill Chain" system, which uses precise conventional weapons such as cruise and ballistic missiles to rapidly target North Korea's leadership before it can give a launch order to nuclear forces. Kill Chain has been in development for years, but the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has been particularly vocal about the system in recent months.
Taken together, North Korea's nuclear policy law and South Korea's Kill Chain system paint a worrying picture for nuclear stability on the Korean peninsula. In a crisis or conflict, both sides would be tempted to escalate quickly and decisively to preempt the other's preemption strategy.
South Korea has been a willing partner in the U.S.-led coalition to condemn and sanction Russia for its illegal invasion of Ukraine and the war crimes it has committed since the beginning of the war.
Moreover, South Korea is paying close attention to how the United States and others respond to the invasion of a non-nuclear country by a nuclear-armed neighbor as well as how Russia employs nuclear posturing to threaten against intervention by third parties.
The Russian submarine carrying the Poseidon nuclear bomb known as the 'apocalypse weapon' is reported to be heading out to the North Sea for testing. The train attached to the Russian Defense Ministry's department responsible for nuclear material was sighted moving to the frontlines in Ukraine.
If Putin actually carries out his threat to use nuclear weapons, and successfully achieves his intended goal of turning the course of the war, it will have serious repercussions that will also affect both the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait.
I wonder if the politicians in South Korea, bickering about mediocre issues, as if they were matters of life and death, understand the seriousness of the situation we are facing ?? what it means to our national security, and the economy. For all our sake, I sincerely hope so.
Kim Sang-woo (swkim54@hotmail.com), former lawmaker, is currently chairman of the East Asia Cultural Project. He is also a member of the board of directors at the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.
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