By Kim Won-soo
Afghanistan fell again into the hands of the Taliban, "the day after" the withdrawal of the United States troops began in a manner so abrupt and fast. The speed of the government collapse and ensuing shocks betrayed not only popular expectations of the outside world but also the analysis by the U.S. intelligence community. But from a longer perspective, it does not look like anything new to Afghanistan. It comes as a double deja vu.
The modern history of Afghanistan repeats itself as a graveyard of empires. It started from the United Kingdom during the imperial era to be followed by the former Soviet Union during the Cold War and the U.S. over the last two decades.
Afghanistan is also back to square one before former U.S. President Bush launched the war against terror following 9/11 in 2001.
But this double deja vu does not mean any certainty for the future of Afghanistan. This time it is highly likely to get more volatile than before. "The day after" is still unfolding with great confusion on the grounds including the Kabul airport and huge anxiety of the Afghan people on the future course of the second Taliban rule.
There exist many unknowns for the long-term future of Afghanistan. The first and foremost unknown is how the new governance under the Taliban will turn out. The Taliban comes back stronger and emboldened by defeating the government backed by the most powerful state and its allies.
But its future is not guaranteed to be smooth, but stymied by the seeds of division and conflict deeply sown and sprouted. The Taliban's future relationship with other extreme Islamic groups such as al-Qaida and ISIS will be watched intensely by its neighbors and the Western powers alike. It also remains to be seen if and how the traditional divide with the northern Afghan tribes will be played out probably involving the violence.
The people of Afghanistan and the world are anxiously waiting to see if and how the verbal guarantees of the Taliban to respect women's rights will be translated into real action. The verdict on the Taliban governance model will take time to come out. Overall I am afraid the new Taliban rule may thrust Afghanistan into a greater chaos and violence.
The decision of the Biden administration to withdraw from Afghanistan is now under heavy scrutiny, both domestic and international. This decision was rare in view of the "ABT" (anything but Trump) tendency of the Biden team. Therefore we need to assume the U.S. withdrawal reflects President Biden's personal conviction and so it is a done deal with no possibility of going back.
Now, I believe, is the time for us to reckon carefully what are salient geopolitical implications and prepare for them.
Firstly, Afghanistan will likely emerge as a source of regional instability. It will threaten to turn the region into a new arc of instability with immediate spillover to the Sunni Pakistan through the existing Pakistani Taliban network and to the Shiite Iran as well as the Central Asian countries which share borders and tribal links with northern Afghanistan. China will be also closely watching if and how the Taliban and affiliated groups may try to inject energy to the separatist Islamic movement in Xinjiang.
A power vacuum and safe haven for terrorist groups may be created if and when the internal conflict rages again in Afghanistan. Opium trade to neighbors and beyond may spike under the protection of various rogue elements and the loose government control.
Secondly, the new instability in Afghanistan will surely create another humanitarian emergency by a massive outflow of refugees into the neighborhood as well as a steep rise in internal displacement. In this respect, the decision by the U.N. Security Council to extend the U.N. mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) is well warranted.
Tough days are ahead of China. China's position vis-a-vis the Taliban is bound to be quite delicate given the geographical proximity and the potential spillover to China's internal stability. Managing the new challenges arising from the Taliban-run Afghanistan can be an interesting example which may show the U.S.-China interests are not necessarily zero-sum on some regional issues.
Last but not the least, we need to examine the implications for us on the Korean Peninsula. In a number of fundamental geopolitical contexts, Afghanistan is not comparable at all to our case. Still, however, "the day after" of Afghanistan provides us with some valuable lessons.
Firstly, we need to remind ourselves of the simple fact that our allies and friends will be much more selective in deciding whether to provide military and other assistance in case future conflicts arise around the world. They will not help those who are perceived as not helping themselves.
Secondly, mustering and maintaining our internal unity matters most. We need to show to ourselves and others that we are willing and ready to sacrifice ourselves for defending our vital interests. For that, we must ensure robust domestic consensus on security and foreign policies aimed at deterring threats and defending against attacks in case deterrence fails. Security and foreign policies on vital interests need to be backed by bipartisan support.
Finally, we must step up efforts to enhance the management of the alliance relationship and to better prepare ourselves for the worst-case scenario.
Kim Won-soo (wsk4321@gmail.com) is the former under-secretary-general of the United Nations and the high representative for disarmament. As a Korean diplomat, he served as foreign affairs secretary to the Korean President. He is now the chair of the international advisory board of the Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae) and a member of the Group of Eminent Persons for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBTO).
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The modern history of Afghanistan repeats itself as a graveyard of empires. It started from the United Kingdom during the imperial era to be followed by the former Soviet Union during the Cold War and the U.S. over the last two decades.
Afghanistan is also back to square one before former U.S. President Bush launched the war against terror following 9/11 in 2001.
But this double deja vu does not mean any certainty for the future of Afghanistan. This time it is highly likely to get more volatile than before. "The day after" is still unfolding with great confusion on the grounds including the Kabul airport and huge anxiety of the Afghan people on the future course of the second Taliban rule.
There exist many unknowns for the long-term future of Afghanistan. The first and foremost unknown is how the new governance under the Taliban will turn out. The Taliban comes back stronger and emboldened by defeating the government backed by the most powerful state and its allies.
But its future is not guaranteed to be smooth, but stymied by the seeds of division and conflict deeply sown and sprouted. The Taliban's future relationship with other extreme Islamic groups such as al-Qaida and ISIS will be watched intensely by its neighbors and the Western powers alike. It also remains to be seen if and how the traditional divide with the northern Afghan tribes will be played out probably involving the violence.
The people of Afghanistan and the world are anxiously waiting to see if and how the verbal guarantees of the Taliban to respect women's rights will be translated into real action. The verdict on the Taliban governance model will take time to come out. Overall I am afraid the new Taliban rule may thrust Afghanistan into a greater chaos and violence.
The decision of the Biden administration to withdraw from Afghanistan is now under heavy scrutiny, both domestic and international. This decision was rare in view of the "ABT" (anything but Trump) tendency of the Biden team. Therefore we need to assume the U.S. withdrawal reflects President Biden's personal conviction and so it is a done deal with no possibility of going back.
Now, I believe, is the time for us to reckon carefully what are salient geopolitical implications and prepare for them.
Firstly, Afghanistan will likely emerge as a source of regional instability. It will threaten to turn the region into a new arc of instability with immediate spillover to the Sunni Pakistan through the existing Pakistani Taliban network and to the Shiite Iran as well as the Central Asian countries which share borders and tribal links with northern Afghanistan. China will be also closely watching if and how the Taliban and affiliated groups may try to inject energy to the separatist Islamic movement in Xinjiang.
A power vacuum and safe haven for terrorist groups may be created if and when the internal conflict rages again in Afghanistan. Opium trade to neighbors and beyond may spike under the protection of various rogue elements and the loose government control.
Secondly, the new instability in Afghanistan will surely create another humanitarian emergency by a massive outflow of refugees into the neighborhood as well as a steep rise in internal displacement. In this respect, the decision by the U.N. Security Council to extend the U.N. mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) is well warranted.
Tough days are ahead of China. China's position vis-a-vis the Taliban is bound to be quite delicate given the geographical proximity and the potential spillover to China's internal stability. Managing the new challenges arising from the Taliban-run Afghanistan can be an interesting example which may show the U.S.-China interests are not necessarily zero-sum on some regional issues.
Last but not the least, we need to examine the implications for us on the Korean Peninsula. In a number of fundamental geopolitical contexts, Afghanistan is not comparable at all to our case. Still, however, "the day after" of Afghanistan provides us with some valuable lessons.
Firstly, we need to remind ourselves of the simple fact that our allies and friends will be much more selective in deciding whether to provide military and other assistance in case future conflicts arise around the world. They will not help those who are perceived as not helping themselves.
Secondly, mustering and maintaining our internal unity matters most. We need to show to ourselves and others that we are willing and ready to sacrifice ourselves for defending our vital interests. For that, we must ensure robust domestic consensus on security and foreign policies aimed at deterring threats and defending against attacks in case deterrence fails. Security and foreign policies on vital interests need to be backed by bipartisan support.
Finally, we must step up efforts to enhance the management of the alliance relationship and to better prepare ourselves for the worst-case scenario.
Kim Won-soo (wsk4321@gmail.com) is the former under-secretary-general of the United Nations and the high representative for disarmament. As a Korean diplomat, he served as foreign affairs secretary to the Korean President. He is now the chair of the international advisory board of the Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae) and a member of the Group of Eminent Persons for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBTO).
