By Kim Won-soo
The Korean Peninsula faces the perfect storm of uncertainty. At the highest, the U.S.-China relations turn tense as China has caught up very close with the United States in aggregate national power. The U.S. hedging against the rise of China seems inevitable even under the incoming Biden administration.
In the middle, tides of nationalism are going up in all countries in Northeast Asia, hindering bilateral relations between neighbors from moving toward the future away from the lingering ghosts of the past. Closest to the Korean Peninsula, clouds of uncertainty are looming larger. Both the U.S.-North Korea denuclearization negotiation and inter-Korean relations remain stuck in a dark tunnel without a prospective light ahead.
In coping with this perfect storm of uncertainty, the COVID-19 pandemic is bad news, as it made the response harder. On the other hand, the win of President-elect Joe Biden is good news, as it reduced the twin risks of isolationism and unpredictability of the Trump era.
Under Biden, U.S. foreign policy will be fundamentally reset along "anything but Trump (ABT)." This is a natural reaction to Trump's "anything but Obama (ABO)." Biden will start his presidency by reversing Trump's earlier withdrawals from the Paris climate change agreement and the World Health Organization.
He is also expected to renew traditional commitments to the liberal international order buttressed by multilateralism over the last seven decades since the end of World War II. But this is easier said than actually done. The Biden presidency will confront a world much different from 2017 when he left the government. It is good to have America back at the table.
The world is facing so many global challenges whose solutions require global leadership. But skepticism is mounting on whether the U.S. can afford to provide the resources necessary to sustain dwindling global public good, from peace and security to climate change. It would be challenging for the Biden team to figure out how America can be back at the "head" of the table, as they aspire to, on what issues.
Given the overstretched and protracted involvements in the forever wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, rebalancing the overseas posture of the U.S. with an earlier proclaimed pivot to Asia is overdue. But in reality, it is tough to realize.
The policy review for that is likely to take time in view of the complexity of the issues involved and the urgent need to tackle domestic challenges first. The Biden administration will be preoccupied with responding to and recovering from the pandemic, healing racial divisions and putting a low carbon economy into practice.
In the meantime, risk mitigation is urgently needed. The biggest risk in the near term will be North Korea. Negotiated settlement of nuclear issues still remains the best possible course despite the fatigue and frustration over negotiation. Therefore South Korea will try its best to work with the new U.S. administration to revive engagement with North Korea.
But if the recent past is our guide, North Korea will not miss the opportunity to spoil the whole thing by taking provocative steps like a nuclear test or missile launch. The longer the U.S. policy review takes, the greater becomes the possibility of North Korea's provocative behavior.
Mitigating this North Korea risk requires two-pronged engagement both with Washington and Pyongyang so that both sides refrain from sending the wrong signals to the other by words or deeds. The early appointment of a senior representative of the U.S. on Korean Peninsula issues would be a positive step. Crisis management channels also need to be established among the five parties, South Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia, which used to participate in the Six-Party Talks.
Common ground needs to be explored to bridge the gap in jumpstarting the stalled negotiation. The resumed path to negotiation is likely to be a hybrid of bottom-up complementing top-down processes, both bilateral and multilateral, backed by both sticks and carrots.
All of these require working closely with China and Japan. China's relations with North Korea are close but complicated. China's influence over North Korea may be more than China publicly admits, but less than others popularly assume. Japan's leverage on North Korea is limited but sufficient to spoil or delay a deal politically.
Conversely, if Japan is brought on board, it can contribute to enabling a deal financially. Convening the Trilateral Summit of South Korea, China and Japan will be a right step forward. The shared agenda can be not only North Korea but also the pandemic response and preparations for the next two Olympics in Tokyo and Beijing.
The U.S. and China hold the ultimate key. How the two biggest powers manage their relations will affect the future stability of Northeast Asia and beyond. Their bilateral relations need to be reset urgently as soon as Biden takes office. Both are advised to focus and build on the global agenda such as climate change and global trade in which both sides share vital interests.
Creative thinking is also required to bridge the gap in competing visions such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Indo-Pacific strategy. Failure to do so will create a dangerous leadership vacuum only to be exploited by the spoilers and toiled by many others in confronting an uncomfortable choice between the U.S. and China.
These are tough issues for South Korea, most of which are beyond its control. But South Korea cannot sit idle as it is the party directly related to the Korean Peninsula issues and it will be affected first and foremost by any negative spillovers. South Korea needs to think hard in advance of all contingencies and get prepared.
Enhanced preparedness will enable South Korea to help itself and others prevent worst-case scenarios from happening and respond effectively in case prevention fails. All contingency options may be hard. Even if the best possible option is the least hard, South Korea, as the owner of the issues, cannot cease to search for the way forward. With patience and persistence, South Korea may turn challenges eventually into blessings in disguise.
Kim Won-soo is the former under secretary-general of the United Nations and the high representative for disarmament. As a Korean diplomat, he served as secretary to the ROK president for foreign affairs. He is now the chair of the international advisory board of the Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae) and a member of the Group of Eminent Persons for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBTO).
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In the middle, tides of nationalism are going up in all countries in Northeast Asia, hindering bilateral relations between neighbors from moving toward the future away from the lingering ghosts of the past. Closest to the Korean Peninsula, clouds of uncertainty are looming larger. Both the U.S.-North Korea denuclearization negotiation and inter-Korean relations remain stuck in a dark tunnel without a prospective light ahead.
In coping with this perfect storm of uncertainty, the COVID-19 pandemic is bad news, as it made the response harder. On the other hand, the win of President-elect Joe Biden is good news, as it reduced the twin risks of isolationism and unpredictability of the Trump era.
Under Biden, U.S. foreign policy will be fundamentally reset along "anything but Trump (ABT)." This is a natural reaction to Trump's "anything but Obama (ABO)." Biden will start his presidency by reversing Trump's earlier withdrawals from the Paris climate change agreement and the World Health Organization.
He is also expected to renew traditional commitments to the liberal international order buttressed by multilateralism over the last seven decades since the end of World War II. But this is easier said than actually done. The Biden presidency will confront a world much different from 2017 when he left the government. It is good to have America back at the table.
The world is facing so many global challenges whose solutions require global leadership. But skepticism is mounting on whether the U.S. can afford to provide the resources necessary to sustain dwindling global public good, from peace and security to climate change. It would be challenging for the Biden team to figure out how America can be back at the "head" of the table, as they aspire to, on what issues.
Given the overstretched and protracted involvements in the forever wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, rebalancing the overseas posture of the U.S. with an earlier proclaimed pivot to Asia is overdue. But in reality, it is tough to realize.
The policy review for that is likely to take time in view of the complexity of the issues involved and the urgent need to tackle domestic challenges first. The Biden administration will be preoccupied with responding to and recovering from the pandemic, healing racial divisions and putting a low carbon economy into practice.
In the meantime, risk mitigation is urgently needed. The biggest risk in the near term will be North Korea. Negotiated settlement of nuclear issues still remains the best possible course despite the fatigue and frustration over negotiation. Therefore South Korea will try its best to work with the new U.S. administration to revive engagement with North Korea.
But if the recent past is our guide, North Korea will not miss the opportunity to spoil the whole thing by taking provocative steps like a nuclear test or missile launch. The longer the U.S. policy review takes, the greater becomes the possibility of North Korea's provocative behavior.
Mitigating this North Korea risk requires two-pronged engagement both with Washington and Pyongyang so that both sides refrain from sending the wrong signals to the other by words or deeds. The early appointment of a senior representative of the U.S. on Korean Peninsula issues would be a positive step. Crisis management channels also need to be established among the five parties, South Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia, which used to participate in the Six-Party Talks.
Common ground needs to be explored to bridge the gap in jumpstarting the stalled negotiation. The resumed path to negotiation is likely to be a hybrid of bottom-up complementing top-down processes, both bilateral and multilateral, backed by both sticks and carrots.
All of these require working closely with China and Japan. China's relations with North Korea are close but complicated. China's influence over North Korea may be more than China publicly admits, but less than others popularly assume. Japan's leverage on North Korea is limited but sufficient to spoil or delay a deal politically.
Conversely, if Japan is brought on board, it can contribute to enabling a deal financially. Convening the Trilateral Summit of South Korea, China and Japan will be a right step forward. The shared agenda can be not only North Korea but also the pandemic response and preparations for the next two Olympics in Tokyo and Beijing.
The U.S. and China hold the ultimate key. How the two biggest powers manage their relations will affect the future stability of Northeast Asia and beyond. Their bilateral relations need to be reset urgently as soon as Biden takes office. Both are advised to focus and build on the global agenda such as climate change and global trade in which both sides share vital interests.
Creative thinking is also required to bridge the gap in competing visions such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Indo-Pacific strategy. Failure to do so will create a dangerous leadership vacuum only to be exploited by the spoilers and toiled by many others in confronting an uncomfortable choice between the U.S. and China.
These are tough issues for South Korea, most of which are beyond its control. But South Korea cannot sit idle as it is the party directly related to the Korean Peninsula issues and it will be affected first and foremost by any negative spillovers. South Korea needs to think hard in advance of all contingencies and get prepared.
Enhanced preparedness will enable South Korea to help itself and others prevent worst-case scenarios from happening and respond effectively in case prevention fails. All contingency options may be hard. Even if the best possible option is the least hard, South Korea, as the owner of the issues, cannot cease to search for the way forward. With patience and persistence, South Korea may turn challenges eventually into blessings in disguise.
Kim Won-soo is the former under secretary-general of the United Nations and the high representative for disarmament. As a Korean diplomat, he served as secretary to the ROK president for foreign affairs. He is now the chair of the international advisory board of the Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae) and a member of the Group of Eminent Persons for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBTO).
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