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By Jang Daul
In a republic like South Korea, the public has the right to know what the government is doing on its behalf. In other words, the administration is obliged to explain its plans and policies and answer questions from the public and civil society.
March 25 is the deadline for the Korean government to establish the first National Carbon Neutrality Master Plan under the Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality. However, while there is only a month left, the draft of such an extensive plan has not been disclosed or publicly consulted at all. It seems it is being established through closed-door discussions.
This is wrong and undemocratic. The plan is extremely critical to determine how Korea, one of the major carbon emitters, will achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 in all sectors to tackle the unprecedented global climate crisis. Considering the scope and timespan, the draft should have been disclosed already and the government should have listened to the opinions of the public, civil society and major stakeholders.
According to the Presidential Commission on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth (CNC), the commission held a meeting recently with only major industrial organizations. For the Yoon administration, public opinion seems to mean only the opinions of the industry.
There are many things that the government must answer and explain in the first master plan, but I would like to emphasize two things here.
Firstly, there should be an answer in the plan as to whether Korea will take its part in achieving the global 1.5-degree Celsius climate target in proportion to its roles and responsibilities to "prevent the serious impact of the climate crisis" as required by the Framework Act.
To prevent a climate disaster, the world needs to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. A 2-degree increase will be too dangerous. It will cause the marine ecosystem to collapse, with 99 percent of the world's coral reefs extinct.
In addition, cumulative emissions targets by 2030 and 2050 together with a plan to manage them should be included in the plan. It is not annual but cumulative emissions that eventually decide how much temperatures will rise. The Framework Act also requires "sector-specific and annual measures to achieve mid- to long-term reduction goals" to be included in the master plan.
Secondly, the 2050 electricity mix should be presented in the plan. The government recently announced a plan for the 2030 and 2036 electricity mix. It aims to increase the share of nuclear power and lower the renewable target. So, the share of fossil fuels in 2030 will be 43 percent, similar to the plan of the previous administration.
Fossil fuel power generation needs to be phased out before 2050. Nuclear power will not be the main source of electricity. It would be hardly possible for nuclear power to keep even the 2036 share, 35 percent, at the time of 2050.
Assuming that, the total electricity demand in 2050 will be 1,258 terawatt-hours (TWh) ― more than double compared to now ― as per the CNC's 2050 carbon neutrality scenario. To keep the 35 percent share of nuclear in the 2050 mix, even if the lifetime of the 25 existing reactors is extended up to 20 more years as well as building two new reactors (Shin Haunl 3 and 4), still, 24 larger (APR1500) reactors, or more than 300 small and medium-sized reactors (SMART, 110 MW) need to be additionally constructed.
Consequently, even if the above unrealistic scenario is realized in a country already having the most reactors per its territory, it has to be renewable energy that eventually supplies most of the remaining 65 percent of electricity in 2050.
However, it seems that the Yoon administration does not trust that renewables could take such an important role in the 2050 electricity mix. Then, it needs to propose an alternative mix from the previous administration.
Greenpeace asked about Yoon's 2050 electricity mix during last year's election campaign, presidential transition committee and even after the government was inaugurated. Yet, we got no answers. It is possible for the public and civil society to discuss the effectiveness, economics, and feasibility of a public policy only if it is shared with clear explanations.
The most popular search keyword on Google among Koreans in 2022 was "climate change." It shows how much the public is concerned about the climate crisis. The public has a right to know in what direction ― and at what speed ― the government, which is leading during the critical time to respond to the climate crisis, will sail. I look forward to seeing the Yoon administration meet its duty and explain soon, in this democratic country with a vibrant civil society, what its plan is.
Jang Daul (daul.jang@greenpeace.org) is a government relations and advocacy specialist at Greenpeace East Asia Seoul Office.
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