Living with hotter and more frequent heat waves

By Jang Daul

Heat waves and forest fires are devastating Europe right now. Starting from the middle of June, many Europeans have been suffering from extreme heat waves. A "red," extreme heat warning was issued for the first time in the United Kingdom. In Portugal and Spain, temperatures rose up to around 46 degrees Celsius. There have been more than 3,600 deaths reported in Europe as of Tuesday.

It is not only Europe that is suffering from heat waves. Around 15,600 people were transported to hospitals by ambulance all over Japan in June due to heat stroke. In China, the average temperature in June was 21.3 degrees Celsius, which was the highest since 1961. The temperature on June 23 rose up to 32 degrees Celsius in Norilsk, a city in Russia where the average highest temperature in June is usually around 10 degrees.

In South Korea we are also not free from the risk of increasing heat waves. Six out of the top 10 hottest years in history have happened in the last seven years except for 2017.

Heat waves cause various socioeconomic consequences in our society. As is well-known, the 2018 heatwave was the worst one. In 2018, the highest temperature rose close to 40 degrees Celsius in Seoul.

The number of patients with heat-related illnesses in 2018 was reported at around 44,000. The 2018 heat wave also caused the deaths of more than 6 million farm animals, as well as damages to 3,000 hectares of farmland.

As a chain effect, damage to agriculture, livestock, aquaculture, ecosystems and industrial infrastructure could cause food crises, GDP losses and business interruptions, which could eventually result in migration, government failures, populism, armed conflicts and global market destabilization.

Though not as serious as in Europe, we are experiencing hotter weather this year too. The average temperature in June 2022 was 22.4 degrees Celsius, which was recorded as the third-hottest average temperature of the month of June since 1973. The first heat wave warning of 2022 was issued on July 3 while that of 2021 came on July 19. The first day of the year that the daily high temperature reached over 30 degrees Celsius was May 23. It is no wonder that the length of summer in Korea has increased by 20 more days over the last century.

Due to global heating, the temperatures formerly considered as "extreme" are now becoming simply "unusual." And by extension, temperatures previously considered "impossible" have become the new "extreme." The 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report made clear that average and extreme heat are increasing on every continent and that the main cause is human-caused climate change.

The report also predicted that a heatwave that would have occurred once in 10 years in the latter half of the 19th century will now occur 2.8 times over ten years and be 1.2 degrees Celsius hotter. Furthermore, if the earth's temperature rises two degrees Celsius, a heatwave that would have occurred only once in 10 years in the latter half of the 19th century will instead occur 5.6 times and be 2.6 degrees Celsius hotter.

However, the above analyses are averaged numbers for moderate heatwaves. Climate scientists warn that changes in their likelihood happen fastest for the most extreme temperatures. This fact means that extreme heat waves in specific locations could be much more severe. The record-smashing heat wave of 2021 in Western Canada and the U.S., as well as the Siberian heat wave of 2020 are such examples.

Now, unfortunately we are still on the path to raising the temperature of the planet by 2.7 degrees Celsius. In other words, even in the best scenario of climate action ― the scenario in which the temperature rises only 1.5 degrees ― we will be forced to learn how to survive during more frequent and more severe heatwaves for the rest of our lives. In the current and worst scenarios, we will face "collective suicide" due to the climate crisis, as the U.N. chief recently warned once again.

It is frustrating that even though we clearly witness increases in both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events all over the planet, the governments of the world's countries still do not establish and implement carbon mitigation measures effective enough to meet the goal of 1.5 degrees. And South Korea is one of the planet's major climate villains.

According to the analysis of Climate Action Tracker, the overall rating of South Korea's climate targets and action plans is "highly insufficient." Also, South Korea was one of the worst performers together with Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan by the 2022 Climate Change Performance Index by Germanwatch.

The presidential office, the ministries, and the National Assembly need to take the overseas evaluations very seriously and develop Korea's first Carbon Neutrality Basic Plan as soon as possible as required by the recently enacted Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth.

The key to carbon neutrality is energy transition, since 87 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions in South Korea come from energy uses. Shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy in the power sector is the first step. However, the new administration has not revealed its plans for how to decrease fossil fuels and increase renewables yet.

President Yoon Suk-yeol and key policymakers in the government should learn important lessons from the ongoing European heatwave crisis.

Jang Daul (daul.jang@greenpeace.org) is a government relations and advocacy specialist at Greenpeace East Asia Seoul Office.