President-elect Yoon: Climate leader or Korean Trump?

By Jang Daul

The 20th presidential election of the Republic of Korea is over. Yoon Suk-yeol from the conservative People Power Party will lead one of the most vibrant democracies as well as the 10th-largest economy for the next five years.

President Moon Jae-in's approval rating is still over 40 percent, higher than previous Korean presidents at this point in their terms. How Moon will be remembered depends on what one values most.

As a climate expert and activist, I will remember Moon's leadership in environmental protection and energy policies, although his administration should have done more as we live in a climate emergency. It is fair enough to recognize his initiative of the transition from a fossil-fuel to carbon-neutral economy.

The latest key findings of the United Nations' climate science reports are nothing but code red for humanity. Scientists stress that we can still avoid a climate catastrophe only if we reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fast enough in this decade.

Korea is the world's ninth-largest carbon emitter. Therefore, Yoon's term, from May 2022 till 2027, is a critical time to decide whether Korea will pull its weight to prevent irreversible climate change in time.

At this point it is difficult to predict whether Yoon will show climate leadership or if he will confirm his critics' claim that he is a Korean Trump.

In his earlier election campaign, he proposed lowering the updated 2030 national climate target by the Korean government even if the goal was globally evaluated as insufficient. However, Yoon later pledged to keep the 2030 target but change how it will be achieved.

As it is well known already, Yoon will scrap Moon's nuclear phase-out policy. But at the same time, he will lower the current government's ambition of renewable energy expansion. As a result, the projected share of fossil fuel power generation will remain more or less the same.

The share of nuclear energy in the total primary energy supply in Korea in 2020 was about 12 percent. Therefore, Yoon's pledge to keep the current nuclear share is a very partial solution to the climate emergency. The key is how to reduce the 81 percent share of fossil fuels ― coal, oil, and natural gas ― in the total energy supply. Yoon has not provided his answer for this key problem during his campaign.

The first moment for Korean people and the world to judge whether Yoon will effectively address the climate emergency is when his transition committee announces a new national vision together with policy goals, strategies, and tasks.

The second moment will be when the Yoon administration adjusts the Phase Three Allocation Plan for 2021-2025 under the Korean Emission Trading Scheme in order to achieve the updated national GHG emission reduction target submitted to the U.N. in December 2021. Without such adjustments, Yoon's election pledge to keep the updated 2030 climate target is nothing but an empty promise.

Thirdly, under the newly legislated Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality in 2021, the Yoon administration is obligated to establish the first Basic Plan for Carbon Neutrality by March 2023. The plan needs to include sectoral and yearly action plans to meet the national 2030 GHG emission reduction target as well as the 2050 carbon neutrality goal. Thus, the Basic plan will provide a blueprint of Yoon's climate leadership.

Another chance for Korean and global citizens to know whether Yoon will keep his election pledges concerning the climate is to check his transport policy in the announcement by the transition committee in early May.

In order to address the climate and environmental crisis, Yoon promised to ban new registrations of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles from 2035. It might be the only pledge made by Yoon which is more ambitious than the current government's plans as well as those of his major opponent in the presidential election.

In March 2022, Cambridge Econometrics, an independent economic consultancy in the UK, published a new analysis report on the macroeconomic impact of decarbonizing Korea's passenger car fleet. It shows that "accelerated deployment of electric vehicles consistent with a phase-out of the sale of new ICEs by 2030 would lead to a substantial reduction in emissions, while creating jobs and long-term economic growth".

An ICE sales ban by 2030 is more ideal, but Yoon's 2035 ICE ban policy still meets the minimum requirement for achieving net zero emission by 2050. It is also well aligned with the trend in major economies. Starting from 2025 in Norway, 2030 in the U.K., and 2035 in Canada, the European Union will ban ICE vehicles from 2035.

The Hyundai Motor Group ranked 3rd in global car sales in 2021. Without a successful, timely and just transition from ICEs to EVs, the competitiveness of Hyundai and Kia will be seriously affected which is a major problem for the Korean economy and society.

Yoon's climate leadership is critical not only for 52 million Koreans, but also for the 7.9 billion people around the world. As Biden emphasized cooperation for addressing the global climate crisis in his first call with the President-elect, I sincerely hope our next President will be a climate leader.

Jang Daul (daul.jang@greenpeace.org) is a government relations and advocacy specialist at Greenpeace East Asia Seoul Office.