Turbulent rivalry shifts in East Asia and Korea

By Kim Sang-woo

The end of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in late October signifies the launch of Xi Jinping's third term as leader. Xi stated in his work report that "the wheels of history are rolling on toward China's reunification and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."

Xi appears to believe the United States is determined to suppress China's rightful ascent as a global power. The Chinese political and academic elite seem convinced that the U.S. is in decline and that Washington is trying to "keep China down" in order to cling to its declining hegemony.

Xi's partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin is designed to decrease his economic reliance on the West and to undermine the U.S.-led world order. As well as to replace the norms and rules of the current liberal order with a system more favorable to autocratic regimes and the expansion of Chinese power.

Nevertheless, the decline in Chinese economic growth is not good for the world economy, which is teetering on the brink of recession. If China continues to stumble, many economies will suffer.

In any case, the U.S. is urging its allies to take its side in its efforts to find alternative supply chains, through regional groupings. As well as urging allies to unite over values, such as safeguarding human rights and promoting democracy.

President Yoon Suk-yeol told President Joe Biden at the beginning of their first bilateral summit, on May 21, "Today we're living in an era of economic security, where the economy is security and security is the economy."

In early October, the Biden administration enacted wide-sweeping export curbs aimed at cutting off key software, chips, and machinery that help China develop semiconductors, artificial intelligence and supercomputers. Washington argues that such advanced semiconductors can be used by Beijing to advance its military capabilities.

In May, South Korea joined 13 other countries in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which aims to set the rules for economics and trade in the region, and to help members decouple from the Chinese market by finding alternative supply chains, offsetting Beijing's influence.

Seoul has pushed to mend relations with Tokyo, frayed by historical issues, as Washington pushes to strengthen trilateral security cooperation with its East Asian allies.

However, the results of Seoul's efforts to strengthen the alliance with Washington are not always appreciated as might be expected, as seen with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has currently put South Korean electric vehicle makers at a disadvantage.

Amid a public outcry, Korea's IRA concerns were only properly raised during Yoon's talks with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Seoul on Sept. 29, and recognized in a subsequent letter by Biden to Yoon.

Most U.S. foreign policy seems to be stemming from domestic politics. It seems quite likely that similar bills such as the IRA will continue to be passed, which can be detrimental to South Korean interests.

However, on Nov. 13, at the South Korea-U.S. summit held on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penn, Cambodia, Biden told Yoon that he recognizes the "enormous contribution South Korean companies make to the American economy," and that it will be "taken into consideration in implementing the IRA."

Some analysts point out that Seoul needs to be prepared to make sacrifices in the process of aligning with the U.S. on key issues.

"At the end of the day, the reality is that relying on the U.S. for security and China for the economy has been a very comfortable stance for South Korea to take up," said Cha Du-hyeon, a principal fellow at the Seoul-based think tank Asan Institute for Policy Studies. "Now we have to be prepared to make sacrifices for taking similar stances with the U.S.," Cha said.

"There must be a role that South Korea can play so that the strategic competition between the U.S. and China does not intensify further and become too extreme," he added.

In a similar vein, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Xi on Nov. 4. The visit was widely criticized.

Nevertheless, some of the reasons why the visit was criticized are exactly what made the trip necessary. The visit comes as the world is "in times of change and turmoil" as Xi told Scholz.

Greater diplomatic efforts are needed to keep Xi's window to the world open and to understand how Xi perceives the world and China's role within it.

At a meeting with Scholz, Xi made his strongest criticism so far of Putin's war and said that China joins the international community in "opposing the use of, or threats to use nuclear weapons." Political observers of Scholz's visit, said these comments on nuclear weapons alone made the trip worth it.

The trilateral alliance between South Korea, the United States and Japan is stronger than ever, as evidenced by the comprehensive joint statement adopted on Nov. 13, which condemned "North Korea's continuous nuclear and missile provocations," and reaffirmed that the trilateral partnership will "pursue mutual prosperity and security with innovation as its engine."

On Nov. 14, in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, the leaders of the U.S. and China met. The summit lasted more than three hours and was the first time Biden and Xi met in person since 2017.

Biden elated by the success of the midterm election results, and the "iron-clad" trilateral alliance, met Xi who emerged from the 20th Party Congress as the absolute leader of the People's Republic of China to better understand each other's core interests and red lines, which must not be crossed.

"Perhaps the outcome of the meeting was the best that could be expected," said Michael Schuman, a nonresident senior fellow at Global China Hub, adding that "dialogue, and the prospect of more of it, holds out hope that competition will not boil over into conflict."

Kim Sang-woo (swkim54@hotmail.com), former lawmaker, is chairman of the East Asia Cultural Project. He is also a member of the board of directors at the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.