By Yun Byung-se
"Kites rise highest against the wind, not with it," said Winston Churchill, former British Prime Minister and a foremost role model for the Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol. Among the many good lessons from Churchill, this maxim seems to be a quite fitting reminder and advice for the new Korean leader at this juncture.
The President-elect is now set to steer the Korean nation through the turbulent waters for the next five years. Turbulent not only in the Korean waters, but also in the Indo-Pacific and global waters. Nowhere are the waters calm. Underneath, tectonic changes are taking place. The geopolitical weather forecast does not show when normalcy will be restored. But it is certain that frequent storms, heavy rains and high winds will await him as he tries to sail safely.
The two months from now until inauguration on May 10 will be a critical time for the transition team to lay the groundwork for the incoming government. Since the devil is in the details, they will have to refine their broadly framed presidential campaign pledges into actionable policies with adjustments as necessary. It will be far from a leisurely rehearsal. It is rather like waiting in full gear in crisis mode. His team cannot afford the luxury of a prolonged familiarization process.
As he nominates his forthcoming cabinet members later, one cannot overemphasize the importance of proven capabilities of individuals and seamless teamwork in the foreign and national security team to tackle multiple daunting challenges and crises of unprecedented magnitude and complexity. The transition committee's groundwork and composition of the new cabinet will be a litmus test that will determine the success or failure of the new administration.
His first challenge as the president is most likely to come from North Korea. He has no time to lose in preventive diplomacy and crisis management to address the direct and imminent threat from Pyongyang's formidable nuclear arsenal and missile capability of all sorts as well as publicized intention to actually use them.
Over the last 30 years, North Korea has shown a clear pattern of testing the will of new administrations in either South Korea or the United States during their transition. Even the progressive Moon Jae-in administration had to swallow four rounds of North Korean missile tests, including an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), in his first month of presidency to be followed by a nuclear test some months later.
Ten rounds of missile tests since January this year, including an IRBM and a hypersonic gliding vehicle (HGV), is a historic record. Last Friday, South Korea and the U.S. jointly concluded that North Korea's two recent launches, disguised as space launches, were partial tests of a new monster inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) dubbed Hwasong-17, prior to conducting a full launch in the near future. Kim Jong-un's recent instructions and visit to the ICBM site substantiates this analysis.
When the ICBM launch becomes a reality, it will be a breach of the moratorium that Kim has self-imposed for the last four years, dealing a final blow to Moon's engagement policy. It will certainly raise the crisis level to a new height and complicate the North Korean nuclear and missile conundrum, inviting much tougher responses from the new Korean leadership in coordination with the Biden administration.
For South Korea, new game-changers such as Iskander missiles, tactical nukes, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and HGVs pose an ever-greater existential threat. By the end of Yoon's term, North Korea is estimated to possess between 150 and 240 nuclear weapons. The gravity of the challenge surpasses that of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.
This is one key reason why the new president should coordinate with the U.S. on a new concerted North Korea strategy as soon as possible. His forthcoming meeting with President Biden in the near future will serve as a critical momentum to restore the faded trust between the two allies.
His second challenge will be to reset or reorient key foreign and security policies as were promised throughout the campaign. More changes, rather than continuity, are expected. In his first press conference as the president-elect last week, he set the right tone and direction on North Korea, defense posture, ROK-U.S. alliance, Japan and China policies, Korea's regional and global roles, economic security as well as human rights and democracy. It will be a return to normalcy like putting back the horse before the cart once again.
Nevertheless, policy shifts will not come without ramifications. For example, crises and tensions could arise in such issues as U.S. nuclear posture and diplomacy vis-a-vis Pyongyang, additional THAAD deployment, recurring history disputes with Japan, Quad participation and U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral cooperation, Russia sanctions, and ROK-U.S. military exercises, just to name a few. How to defuse and manage possible adverse reactions from diverse stakeholders demands sophisticated strategy and diplomacy from the outset. At the core of all these efforts should be the iron-clad ROK-U.S. comprehensive alliance.
His third challenge is to position South Korea wisely and firmly in ever-deepening fragmentation of regional and global order as were manifested by U.S.-China strategic competition and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The new Korean administration should make its commitment to peace, democracy and universal values clear and play responsible roles commensurate with its weight and status in the ongoing geopolitical and geo-economic transformation.
As economic security is becoming integral to national security, it needs to tackle and stay ahead of the global supply chain and technology disruption emanating from diverse factors. Active expansion of its regional and global network is a sine qua non for navigating through the fierce competition.
Despite best efforts, the new leadership will inevitably face many critical moments where no end is in sight and risk of any options are too high. He may have to compromise for a second best or less worst option. He could learn from some of his predecessors and foreign leaders, who as Churchill admonished, "rose to the occasion" for their national interests and noble causes with unfaltering resolve.
President John F. Kennedy, who sagaciously overcame the 13 day hair-trigger Cuban missile crisis, recalled his final yet lonely decision: "the essence of ultimate decision remains impenetrable to the observer, often, indeed decider himself."
The ultimate decisions of the next leadership will shape the destiny of South Korea not just for the next five years, but for many years to come.
Yun Byung-se is former foreign minister of South Korea. He is now a board member of Korea Peace Foundation and is a member of several ex-global leaders' forums and task forces, including the Astana Forum and its Consultative Council as well as the Task Force on U.S. Allies and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation sponsored by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
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The President-elect is now set to steer the Korean nation through the turbulent waters for the next five years. Turbulent not only in the Korean waters, but also in the Indo-Pacific and global waters. Nowhere are the waters calm. Underneath, tectonic changes are taking place. The geopolitical weather forecast does not show when normalcy will be restored. But it is certain that frequent storms, heavy rains and high winds will await him as he tries to sail safely.
The two months from now until inauguration on May 10 will be a critical time for the transition team to lay the groundwork for the incoming government. Since the devil is in the details, they will have to refine their broadly framed presidential campaign pledges into actionable policies with adjustments as necessary. It will be far from a leisurely rehearsal. It is rather like waiting in full gear in crisis mode. His team cannot afford the luxury of a prolonged familiarization process.
As he nominates his forthcoming cabinet members later, one cannot overemphasize the importance of proven capabilities of individuals and seamless teamwork in the foreign and national security team to tackle multiple daunting challenges and crises of unprecedented magnitude and complexity. The transition committee's groundwork and composition of the new cabinet will be a litmus test that will determine the success or failure of the new administration.
His first challenge as the president is most likely to come from North Korea. He has no time to lose in preventive diplomacy and crisis management to address the direct and imminent threat from Pyongyang's formidable nuclear arsenal and missile capability of all sorts as well as publicized intention to actually use them.
Over the last 30 years, North Korea has shown a clear pattern of testing the will of new administrations in either South Korea or the United States during their transition. Even the progressive Moon Jae-in administration had to swallow four rounds of North Korean missile tests, including an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), in his first month of presidency to be followed by a nuclear test some months later.
Ten rounds of missile tests since January this year, including an IRBM and a hypersonic gliding vehicle (HGV), is a historic record. Last Friday, South Korea and the U.S. jointly concluded that North Korea's two recent launches, disguised as space launches, were partial tests of a new monster inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) dubbed Hwasong-17, prior to conducting a full launch in the near future. Kim Jong-un's recent instructions and visit to the ICBM site substantiates this analysis.
When the ICBM launch becomes a reality, it will be a breach of the moratorium that Kim has self-imposed for the last four years, dealing a final blow to Moon's engagement policy. It will certainly raise the crisis level to a new height and complicate the North Korean nuclear and missile conundrum, inviting much tougher responses from the new Korean leadership in coordination with the Biden administration.
For South Korea, new game-changers such as Iskander missiles, tactical nukes, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and HGVs pose an ever-greater existential threat. By the end of Yoon's term, North Korea is estimated to possess between 150 and 240 nuclear weapons. The gravity of the challenge surpasses that of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.
This is one key reason why the new president should coordinate with the U.S. on a new concerted North Korea strategy as soon as possible. His forthcoming meeting with President Biden in the near future will serve as a critical momentum to restore the faded trust between the two allies.
His second challenge will be to reset or reorient key foreign and security policies as were promised throughout the campaign. More changes, rather than continuity, are expected. In his first press conference as the president-elect last week, he set the right tone and direction on North Korea, defense posture, ROK-U.S. alliance, Japan and China policies, Korea's regional and global roles, economic security as well as human rights and democracy. It will be a return to normalcy like putting back the horse before the cart once again.
Nevertheless, policy shifts will not come without ramifications. For example, crises and tensions could arise in such issues as U.S. nuclear posture and diplomacy vis-a-vis Pyongyang, additional THAAD deployment, recurring history disputes with Japan, Quad participation and U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral cooperation, Russia sanctions, and ROK-U.S. military exercises, just to name a few. How to defuse and manage possible adverse reactions from diverse stakeholders demands sophisticated strategy and diplomacy from the outset. At the core of all these efforts should be the iron-clad ROK-U.S. comprehensive alliance.
His third challenge is to position South Korea wisely and firmly in ever-deepening fragmentation of regional and global order as were manifested by U.S.-China strategic competition and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The new Korean administration should make its commitment to peace, democracy and universal values clear and play responsible roles commensurate with its weight and status in the ongoing geopolitical and geo-economic transformation.
As economic security is becoming integral to national security, it needs to tackle and stay ahead of the global supply chain and technology disruption emanating from diverse factors. Active expansion of its regional and global network is a sine qua non for navigating through the fierce competition.
Despite best efforts, the new leadership will inevitably face many critical moments where no end is in sight and risk of any options are too high. He may have to compromise for a second best or less worst option. He could learn from some of his predecessors and foreign leaders, who as Churchill admonished, "rose to the occasion" for their national interests and noble causes with unfaltering resolve.
President John F. Kennedy, who sagaciously overcame the 13 day hair-trigger Cuban missile crisis, recalled his final yet lonely decision: "the essence of ultimate decision remains impenetrable to the observer, often, indeed decider himself."
The ultimate decisions of the next leadership will shape the destiny of South Korea not just for the next five years, but for many years to come.
Yun Byung-se is former foreign minister of South Korea. He is now a board member of Korea Peace Foundation and is a member of several ex-global leaders' forums and task forces, including the Astana Forum and its Consultative Council as well as the Task Force on U.S. Allies and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation sponsored by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
