The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to President
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
  • World Expo 2030
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to President
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
  • Login
  • Register
  • Login
  • Register
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
  • 1

    SHINee celebrates 15th anniversary of debut: 'It feels surreal'

  • 3

    ENHYPEN reaches new career high with latest album 'Dark Blood'

  • 5

    Memorial Day 2023

  • 7

    Korea eyes launch of 4th Nuri space rocket in 2025

  • 9

    Vietnam emerges as major market for Korean chipmakers

  • 11

    ANALYSISChina's ban on Micron tests Washington-Seoul alliance

  • 13

    Korea's diplomacy put to test amid signs of thaw in US-China relations

  • 15

    Local governments appeal to young generations through YouTube

  • 17

    'Transformers: Rise of the Beasts' raises bar with epic battle scenes

  • 19

    Police brace for massive union protest

  • 2

    Seoul on alert over Pyongyang's imminent spy satellite launch

  • 4

    Hybe's new boy group Boynextdoor aims to be 'one and only' presence in K-pop

  • 6

    Korea's household debt-to-GDP ratio highest among 34 major economies

  • 8

    Brave Girls to restart activities under new name

  • 10

    Japanese destroyer flies controversial flag as it arrives in Korea for joint drill

  • 12

    Seoul city erroneously sends emergency alert after NK launch

  • 14

    Top 20% of income earners fuel increase in Q1 consumption as pandemic ends

  • 16

    Rapper Mino attends sister's wedding in U.S. amid military service

  • 18

    Korea to ease immigration rules to attract more medical tourists

  • 20

    POSCO International enters battery materials business

Close scrollclosebutton

Close for 24 hours

Open
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
Opinion
  • Yun Byung-se
  • Kim Won-soo
  • Ahn Ho-young
  • Kim Sang-woo
  • Lee Kyung-hwa
  • Mitch Shin
  • Peter S. Kim
  • Daniel Shin
  • Jeon Su-mi
  • Jang Daul
  • Song Kyung-jin
  • Park Jung-won
  • Cho Hee-kyoung
  • Park Chong-hoon
  • Kim Sung-woo
  • Donald Kirk
  • John Burton
  • Robert D. Atkinson
  • Mark Peterson
  • Eugene Lee
  • Rushan Ziatdinov
  • Lee Jong-eun
  • Chyung Eun-ju and Joel Cho
  • Bernhard J. Seliger
  • Imran Khalid
  • Troy Stangarone
  • Jason Lim
  • Casey Lartigue, Jr.
  • Bernard Rowan
  • Steven L. Shields
  • Deauwand Myers
  • John J. Metzler
  • Andrew Hammond
  • Sandip Kumar Mishra
Wed, May 31, 2023 | 09:33
Andrew Hammond
Big blow for Macron who misses out on majority
Posted : 2022-06-23 16:24
Updated : 2022-06-23 16:24
Print PreviewPrint Preview
Font Size UpFont Size Up
Font Size DownFont Size Down
  • facebook
  • twitter
  • kakaolink
  • whatsapp
  • reddit
  • mailto
  • link
By Andrew Hammond

Emmanuel Macron's presidential re-election "honeymoon" was shattered on Sunday when he became the first French president in around a quarter of a century not to win a parliamentary majority.

This failure of Macron's Ensemble (Together) coalition to win a majority may also prove to be significant for Europe, at large, and not just France. If Macron now needs to spend a greater than expected part of his second term focusing on his domestic agenda rather than foreign policy, his ability to play the pro-EU "continental statesman" role he enjoys, including recently with Russia over Ukraine, will be limited.

His economic reform agenda will now be more challenging to push through. This is a blow not just to the president, but also the French economy, and could undermine wider investor confidence in France.

The election result is a significant change from 2017 when the president's bloc won around 350 of 577 seats. Perhaps the big surprise of the night was the relative success of far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen. This group made unexpectedly large gains, and is projected to win around 10 times the small number of seats than in 2017.

Macron's coalition will now need to either govern as a minority administration, or form informal or formal alliances with other parties. The most likely group here is probably the right-of-center Republicans.

Sunday's results show how simplistic the conventional wisdom is that French legislative elections are designed, almost by default, to hand the president a workable majority. Yet, while the incumbent has for much of the Fifth Republic enjoyed the support of a relatively secure legislative majority from his own party, this is never certain.

This is particularly true in Macron's case as, a half decade into his presidency, it is sometimes forgotten that France remains in largely uncharted political territory being governed by an alliance that was only founded by the young president only in 2016. The last two presidential elections have been the only ones in the country's modern history that neither of the parties of mainstream center-right Republicans, or center-left Socialists, managed to qualify, and it remains unclear whether one or both of these parties will stage a comeback, or whether the French political system is now realigned forever.

Even before Sunday's first round ballot, the warning signs were there for Macron. One poll released at the start of the month by the Ifop group suggested that his Ensemble centrist coalition would probably be the largest single party, but likely below the 289 needed for an absolute majority.

Going into Sunday's second round, momentum had been with the far-left coalition led by hard-left veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon, and the bloc won the second largest number of seats. Melenchon and his team engineered what many had seen as a near impossible feat: developing a broad alliance of France's deeply fractured left ― the Socialist Party, Greens and Communists ― in an unexpected show of unity. The coalition is united around a common policy platform including restoring a wealth tax scrapped by Macron, lowering the retirement age to 60, and hiking the minimum wage by 15%.

In the view of Olivier Veran, the French minister for parliamentary affairs, the failure to give Macron a majority represents a "major destabilization of politics in our country for years to come." While this language may be exaggerated, politics will become tougher for the president. A minority cabinet or coalition government is an unusual scenario for modern-day France, and the Fifth Republic was designed to avoid such unwieldy coalitions.

However, one consolation for Macron is that an even worse case scenario for him did not occur. That is, if the leftist alliance had surprised the pollsters, and won a majority. Macron would then have had to name a prime minister from the winning camp, ushering in a period of so-called cohabitation.

There is a precedent for this in the Fifth Republic from 1986-1988, 1993-1995 and 1997-2002 under the presidencies of Socialist Francois Mitterrand and Republicans Jacques Chirac respectively. In these periods, the center of gravity of domestic policy moves into the hands of the prime minister and the majority party in the legislature, with the president retaining the lead on foreign policy.

Sunday's result matters not only for the next few years in France, but could also shape the next decade too. As the low turnout shows, there remains widespread anti-establishment anger and, unless Macron is seen to succeed with his reforms, the beneficiaries in the future could be the far right Le Pen and/or far left Melenchon.

So it is not just the success of Macron's remaining presidency that will now rest significantly on Sunday's final round elections. The results will also shape the context for the next presidential ballot in 2027 when a victory by the far right or far left cannot be ruled out.


Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics


 
wooribank
Top 10 Stories
1Korea to ease immigration rules to attract more medical tourists Korea to ease immigration rules to attract more medical tourists
2Big businesses face growing union pressure to extend retirement age Big businesses face growing union pressure to extend retirement age
3Running convenience stores becomes popular among people in 20s, 30s Running convenience stores becomes popular among people in 20s, 30s
4Anti-corruption watchdog set to investigate crypto assets of lawmakersAnti-corruption watchdog set to investigate crypto assets of lawmakers
5Naver suffers shrinking online search market share Naver suffers shrinking online search market share
6Sluggish exports behind weak Korean won Sluggish exports behind weak Korean won
7Seoul resident clashes with authorities for raising dogs to nab 'North Korean spies'Seoul resident clashes with authorities for raising dogs to nab 'North Korean spies'
8Pyongyang may have delayed spy satellite launch due to technical issues Pyongyang may have delayed spy satellite launch due to technical issues
9Doctors, pharmacists to receive 30% bonus for offering telemedicine service Doctors, pharmacists to receive 30% bonus for offering telemedicine service
10HanmiGlobal to monitor building of 80,000 houses for Neom construction workers HanmiGlobal to monitor building of 80,000 houses for Neom construction workers
Top 5 Entertainment News
1'Elemental' director on bringing his personal story of immigration to cinema 'Elemental' director on bringing his personal story of immigration to cinema
2SHINee celebrates 15th anniversary of debut: 'It feels surreal' SHINee celebrates 15th anniversary of debut: 'It feels surreal'
3ENHYPEN reaches new career high with latest album 'Dark Blood' ENHYPEN reaches new career high with latest album 'Dark Blood'
4'Transformers: Rise of the Beasts' raises bar with epic battle scenes 'Transformers: Rise of the Beasts' raises bar with epic battle scenes
5[INTERVIEW] Long-awaited extension of Korean Pavilion at Venice Biennale to be pushed forward INTERVIEWLong-awaited extension of Korean Pavilion at Venice Biennale to be pushed forward
DARKROOM
  • Turkey-Syria earthquake

    Turkey-Syria earthquake

  • Nepal plane crash

    Nepal plane crash

  • Brazil capital uprising

    Brazil capital uprising

  • Happy New Year 2023

    Happy New Year 2023

  • World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

    World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

CEO & Publisher : Oh Young-jin
Digital News Email : webmaster@koreatimes.co.kr
Tel : 02-724-2114
Online newspaper registration No : 서울,아52844
Date of registration : 2020.02.05
Masthead : The Korea Times
Copyright © koreatimes.co.kr. All rights reserved.
  • About Us
  • Introduction
  • History
  • Contact Us
  • Products & Services
  • Subscribe
  • E-paper
  • RSS Service
  • Content Sales
  • Site Map
  • Policy
  • Code of Ethics
  • Ombudsman
  • Privacy Statement
  • Terms of Service
  • Copyright Policy
  • Family Site
  • Hankook Ilbo
  • Dongwha Group