By Andrew Hammond
December has seen Russian President Vladimir Putin isolated on Ukraine in a series of big summits, but that changed significantly Wednesday when his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping gave his strong support, entrenching an emerging Moscow-Beijing axis.
The Chinese president's alliance with Putin has been one of the key factors emboldening Russian foreign policy in recent years, which has significant implications not just for geopolitics but also the global economy. With both men potentially in power until well into the 2030s, they may well be seen by future historians as the two dominant figures in international relations in the first three to four decades of the 21st century.
The warmth of bilateral ties is very much driven by the apparent personal camaraderie between the two men, with Putin, who refused to travel to the G20 or COP26 in recent weeks, highlighting his delight at attending the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics when much of the West is holding a diplomatic boycott to protest China's human rights record.
Xi clearly welcomes Putin's support saying that "both sides should strengthen coordination and cooperation on international affairs to make louder voices on global governance."
On Ukraine, Xi left no doubt where he stands when he asserted that he "understands Russia's concerns to work out security guarantees" given NATO's perceived encroachment.
He added, "Both China and Russia need to carry out more joint actions to more effectively safeguard our security and interests" against the Western powers, and expressed his appreciation that Putin "strongly supported Beijing's efforts to protect key national interests and firmly opposed attempts to drive a wedge between our countries."
While the standoff on the Ukraine border may potentially die down again in 2022, as happened in spring when Russian troops last mobilized there in their tens of thousands, that is by no means guaranteed. For Putin's mission since assuming power almost a quarter of a century ago has been trying to restore Russia's geopolitical prominence through international gambits like the annexation of Crimea and his intervention in Syria.
Yet another continent Putin is targeting is Africa, seeking to restore Moscow's influence in the region that faded after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin is keen to entrench Russia's economic and political foothold in the continent with bilateral trade, with Africa having risen significantly in the last decade.
While Putin's foreign policy escapades have ― so far at least ― generally played well domestically, it has resulted in much frostier relations with the West. And a key question in coming years is how the relationship, specifically with the United States, will fare under Biden who will remain in office till at least early 2025 but may not choose to seek re-election when he will be in his 80s.
As the Biden-Putin summit highlighted, the most likely outcome is continuing frosty ties, and Putin at 69 may already be thinking ahead to the next U.S. president hoping for another maverick U.S. figure more congenial to his interests, potentially even Donald Trump again. The Russian leader knows that he could yet see out several more U.S. presidents if he wins two more terms of office, by which time he would surpass even Joseph Stalin's tenure in office.
Yet, while Putin appears to be firmly entrenched, if not impregnable right now, numerous challenges persist. The pandemic, for one, has posed a major challenge, including after the massive autumn wave of infections in recent weeks.
This underlines that he is far from certain to serve till 2036, especially if his political luck finally goes south, fueled by potential foreign policy misadventure or domestic economic travails. To keep his hold on power, it seems very likely that Putin will continue to rely on the playbook that has served him well so far: namely, forging a sense of post-Cold War patriotism of which the current build-up near Ukraine may be only the latest example.
This could have profound implications, especially given his growing closeness to Xi who is another potential "president for life." The closeness of their relationship is one key reason why the frost appears unlikely to thaw in Russia's relations with the West.
And in this context, Putin is increasingly asserting Russian power in other areas of the globe from the Asia-Pacific to Africa and the Americas, doubling down support for longstanding allies who are Western foes, including Venezuela, Syria, North Korea and Iran.
The implications of Putin's long period in office therefore go well beyond the Russian domestic political landscape and the near abroad of Ukraine. The key foreign legacy of his presidency is likely to be the significantly closer relationship with Beijing which poses a much broader, potentially defining challenge for the West in the 2020s and 2030s.
Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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The Chinese president's alliance with Putin has been one of the key factors emboldening Russian foreign policy in recent years, which has significant implications not just for geopolitics but also the global economy. With both men potentially in power until well into the 2030s, they may well be seen by future historians as the two dominant figures in international relations in the first three to four decades of the 21st century.
The warmth of bilateral ties is very much driven by the apparent personal camaraderie between the two men, with Putin, who refused to travel to the G20 or COP26 in recent weeks, highlighting his delight at attending the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics when much of the West is holding a diplomatic boycott to protest China's human rights record.
Xi clearly welcomes Putin's support saying that "both sides should strengthen coordination and cooperation on international affairs to make louder voices on global governance."
On Ukraine, Xi left no doubt where he stands when he asserted that he "understands Russia's concerns to work out security guarantees" given NATO's perceived encroachment.
He added, "Both China and Russia need to carry out more joint actions to more effectively safeguard our security and interests" against the Western powers, and expressed his appreciation that Putin "strongly supported Beijing's efforts to protect key national interests and firmly opposed attempts to drive a wedge between our countries."
While the standoff on the Ukraine border may potentially die down again in 2022, as happened in spring when Russian troops last mobilized there in their tens of thousands, that is by no means guaranteed. For Putin's mission since assuming power almost a quarter of a century ago has been trying to restore Russia's geopolitical prominence through international gambits like the annexation of Crimea and his intervention in Syria.
Yet another continent Putin is targeting is Africa, seeking to restore Moscow's influence in the region that faded after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin is keen to entrench Russia's economic and political foothold in the continent with bilateral trade, with Africa having risen significantly in the last decade.
While Putin's foreign policy escapades have ― so far at least ― generally played well domestically, it has resulted in much frostier relations with the West. And a key question in coming years is how the relationship, specifically with the United States, will fare under Biden who will remain in office till at least early 2025 but may not choose to seek re-election when he will be in his 80s.
As the Biden-Putin summit highlighted, the most likely outcome is continuing frosty ties, and Putin at 69 may already be thinking ahead to the next U.S. president hoping for another maverick U.S. figure more congenial to his interests, potentially even Donald Trump again. The Russian leader knows that he could yet see out several more U.S. presidents if he wins two more terms of office, by which time he would surpass even Joseph Stalin's tenure in office.
Yet, while Putin appears to be firmly entrenched, if not impregnable right now, numerous challenges persist. The pandemic, for one, has posed a major challenge, including after the massive autumn wave of infections in recent weeks.
This underlines that he is far from certain to serve till 2036, especially if his political luck finally goes south, fueled by potential foreign policy misadventure or domestic economic travails. To keep his hold on power, it seems very likely that Putin will continue to rely on the playbook that has served him well so far: namely, forging a sense of post-Cold War patriotism of which the current build-up near Ukraine may be only the latest example.
This could have profound implications, especially given his growing closeness to Xi who is another potential "president for life." The closeness of their relationship is one key reason why the frost appears unlikely to thaw in Russia's relations with the West.
And in this context, Putin is increasingly asserting Russian power in other areas of the globe from the Asia-Pacific to Africa and the Americas, doubling down support for longstanding allies who are Western foes, including Venezuela, Syria, North Korea and Iran.
The implications of Putin's long period in office therefore go well beyond the Russian domestic political landscape and the near abroad of Ukraine. The key foreign legacy of his presidency is likely to be the significantly closer relationship with Beijing which poses a much broader, potentially defining challenge for the West in the 2020s and 2030s.
Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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