By Oh Young-jin
As expected, South Korea and the United States have decided to suspend their war games for this year as demanded by North Korea.
It's an inevitable choice for the allies to ensure peace during the Feb. 8-25 PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games.
So the parties involved got what they wanted but which gets the best deal from it?
North Korea (and China)
Pyongyang has long demanded Seoul and Washington stop joint military exercises, calling them preparations for war. In the past, the ROK-U.S. Team Spirit exercises were delayed or skipped before being abolished. The exercises in question are the annual Foal Eagle involving 200,000 ROK and 30,000 U.S. soldiers throughout March and Key Resolve simulated drills also in March.
These exercises are important in maintaining the interoperability of the two countries' forces. The two militaries are under the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC), led by an American General, now Gen. Vincent Brooks. In case of North Korean invasion, the CFC would hold the northern troops at bay and serve as vehicle for reinforcements from the U.S. to beat them back and destroy them.
Once skipped, it would be hard to reschedule the exercises within the same year, thereby depriving the allies of a precious chance for the two militaries to get coordinated.
In its confrontation with the U.S. over its missile and nuclear development, the suspension means Pyongyang scored. The two adversaries have long fought for a better position in their pre-dialogue stage. The U.S. has sought for any meaningful concession by the North _ a freeze on the development programs and test moratorium, while ruling out the possibility of the drill suspension. But in the end, Washington blinked. Trump vainly tried through his tweet to take the credit for Olympic detente but few were buying it.
Then, China also had one up on the U.S. Beijing has called for the U.S.-North Korea dialogue in a formula that included the ROK-U.S. war games. It remains to be seen how Beijing will use its new prestige in its own game of hegemony with the U.S.
Moon Jae-in
President Moon Jae-in is a happy camper, showing his detractors he is indeed in the driver's seat in determining the direction of inter-Korean relationship.
Immediately, he set aside worries about the "bloody" Olympics that would be held under the constant threat of the North's provocations and the concern of potential "no shows" by participating countries.
With the hotline reopened and some rounds of high-level talks likely, Moon would push hard on the restart button for an inter-Korean reconciliation effort, disrupted by the 10-year hiatus by his two conservative presidents.
His conservative opponents are now in disarray, not being able to coalesce with no figure to rally around. With Moon's popularity rating well above a wondrous 70 percent, it looks that he may overcome the doomsayers' predictions for a major setback in this year's local elections and lay the ground for a long-term liberal rule for the next 10 years and beyond. A blow to Moon's political opponents is the "100 percent" blessing Trump surprisingly gave to Moon's peace overture. What got Trump flipping up this time was not clear but most likely there should be more than what meets the eye.
Moon would seek to take advantage of the Olympic thaw to push ahead and put inter-Korean relations on firmer ground. The catch is that Kim Jong-un of the North has a different goal. If the past serves as an indicator, Kim wants to deal directly with the U.S., thereby using the possible inter-Korean dialogue as a means to press for recognition as a nuclear state from the U.S. and lead to its military withdrawal from the South.
So, Moon can say that he is at the wheel but it can mean that he ends up as just the chauffeur following the directions from the boss seated behind him _ the boss either being the North or Trump. But Moon appears confident that the South has won the war with the North, nuclear state or not. This conclusion can make him look more generous in dealing with the North. About the U.S., he may well think that by getting the nation closer to China, he has made the U.S. stop taking Seoul for granted.
US
Trump had no other choice but to follow Moon's lead. He chose his options wisely.
Just imagine that he had resorted to his usual fiery rhetoric and raised the tension.
By agreeing to suspend the war games, however, he is taking the flak from his domestic conservative support base and running the risk of being seen to be weakened.
So it is likely that Trump will pounce upon the first chance to resume his hard line stance on the North after the Olympics. After all, he has very little to show his backers and critics that he has achieved any meaningful goals he set.
The problem is of course the North that would play along with Moon's waltz, helping Moon stand in Trump's way. That would be a major test of the alliance. But as mentioned, the U.S. can't afford to leave Seoul and maintain its regional and global hegemony.
Now, it is different from the cold war era, when the U.S. was pitted mainly against the Soviet Union, the European power. China, its current competitor, is a traditional Asian power. In the U.S.-China power game, Washington would find it more difficult to ditch the South as it did just six months before the 1950-53 Korean War.
By and large, the North appears to have gained the most. But the likelihood is that its victory is over one of many battles, not the war itself.
Oh Young-jin (foolsdie5@ktimes.com, foolsdie@gmail.com) is the digital managing editor of The Korea Times.
As expected, South Korea and the United States have decided to suspend their war games for this year as demanded by North Korea.
It's an inevitable choice for the allies to ensure peace during the Feb. 8-25 PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games.
So the parties involved got what they wanted but which gets the best deal from it?
North Korea (and China)
Pyongyang has long demanded Seoul and Washington stop joint military exercises, calling them preparations for war. In the past, the ROK-U.S. Team Spirit exercises were delayed or skipped before being abolished. The exercises in question are the annual Foal Eagle involving 200,000 ROK and 30,000 U.S. soldiers throughout March and Key Resolve simulated drills also in March.
These exercises are important in maintaining the interoperability of the two countries' forces. The two militaries are under the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC), led by an American General, now Gen. Vincent Brooks. In case of North Korean invasion, the CFC would hold the northern troops at bay and serve as vehicle for reinforcements from the U.S. to beat them back and destroy them.
Once skipped, it would be hard to reschedule the exercises within the same year, thereby depriving the allies of a precious chance for the two militaries to get coordinated.
In its confrontation with the U.S. over its missile and nuclear development, the suspension means Pyongyang scored. The two adversaries have long fought for a better position in their pre-dialogue stage. The U.S. has sought for any meaningful concession by the North _ a freeze on the development programs and test moratorium, while ruling out the possibility of the drill suspension. But in the end, Washington blinked. Trump vainly tried through his tweet to take the credit for Olympic detente but few were buying it.
Then, China also had one up on the U.S. Beijing has called for the U.S.-North Korea dialogue in a formula that included the ROK-U.S. war games. It remains to be seen how Beijing will use its new prestige in its own game of hegemony with the U.S.
Moon Jae-in
President Moon Jae-in is a happy camper, showing his detractors he is indeed in the driver's seat in determining the direction of inter-Korean relationship.
Immediately, he set aside worries about the "bloody" Olympics that would be held under the constant threat of the North's provocations and the concern of potential "no shows" by participating countries.
With the hotline reopened and some rounds of high-level talks likely, Moon would push hard on the restart button for an inter-Korean reconciliation effort, disrupted by the 10-year hiatus by his two conservative presidents.
His conservative opponents are now in disarray, not being able to coalesce with no figure to rally around. With Moon's popularity rating well above a wondrous 70 percent, it looks that he may overcome the doomsayers' predictions for a major setback in this year's local elections and lay the ground for a long-term liberal rule for the next 10 years and beyond. A blow to Moon's political opponents is the "100 percent" blessing Trump surprisingly gave to Moon's peace overture. What got Trump flipping up this time was not clear but most likely there should be more than what meets the eye.
Moon would seek to take advantage of the Olympic thaw to push ahead and put inter-Korean relations on firmer ground. The catch is that Kim Jong-un of the North has a different goal. If the past serves as an indicator, Kim wants to deal directly with the U.S., thereby using the possible inter-Korean dialogue as a means to press for recognition as a nuclear state from the U.S. and lead to its military withdrawal from the South.
So, Moon can say that he is at the wheel but it can mean that he ends up as just the chauffeur following the directions from the boss seated behind him _ the boss either being the North or Trump. But Moon appears confident that the South has won the war with the North, nuclear state or not. This conclusion can make him look more generous in dealing with the North. About the U.S., he may well think that by getting the nation closer to China, he has made the U.S. stop taking Seoul for granted.
US
Trump had no other choice but to follow Moon's lead. He chose his options wisely.
Just imagine that he had resorted to his usual fiery rhetoric and raised the tension.
By agreeing to suspend the war games, however, he is taking the flak from his domestic conservative support base and running the risk of being seen to be weakened.
So it is likely that Trump will pounce upon the first chance to resume his hard line stance on the North after the Olympics. After all, he has very little to show his backers and critics that he has achieved any meaningful goals he set.
The problem is of course the North that would play along with Moon's waltz, helping Moon stand in Trump's way. That would be a major test of the alliance. But as mentioned, the U.S. can't afford to leave Seoul and maintain its regional and global hegemony.
Now, it is different from the cold war era, when the U.S. was pitted mainly against the Soviet Union, the European power. China, its current competitor, is a traditional Asian power. In the U.S.-China power game, Washington would find it more difficult to ditch the South as it did just six months before the 1950-53 Korean War.
By and large, the North appears to have gained the most. But the likelihood is that its victory is over one of many battles, not the war itself.
Oh Young-jin (foolsdie5@ktimes.com, foolsdie@gmail.com) is the digital managing editor of The Korea Times.
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