By Michael Breen
If you put yourself in the shoes of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, and his advisors and consider their options in a changing world, you can see why they would find the most comfort in the status quo.
We may think that North Korea is a poor and backward country shaking its fist at the world. But, for them, that's just fine.
This is an irony because things naturally change and people want those changes to be for the better.
The world, despite crises like the mix-up in the best picture awards at the Oscars, and Brexit and other stuff, is indeed changing for the better. Most countries are growing wealthier and democratizing.
Maintaining things just this way is not a winning election strategy. But, if that's what you're committed to, as the North Koreans are, it calls for hard work and a lot of strategizing.
This may sound cynical, but consider the circumstances from Kim Jong-un's point of view. He is only 33 years old but, instead of moving up in a company, or saving for a new car, he is an absolute leader. He's been one for a few years now, so it may even have gotten boring.
Instead of pursuing youthful ambition, he is probably more consumed by the scary fact that he is looking at another 50 or 60 years at the top during which time someone is bound to try and do to him what he just did to his brother.
As he peers down from the balcony at the fawning masses or across the room at the be-medaled generals, he probably imagines, rightly or wrongly, a vision of his own coffin lurking behind that applause.
The only way to stay safe is to be needed and to be feared. To that end, he has to keep the elite nervous by occasionally flinging a random offender into the gulag for a few years or actually having one executed for some imagined offense.
And he has to keep the people tethered. This he does with a delusion and a lie. The delusion is to convince them they are at war and the lie is that he is the only one with sufficient courage and brilliance to protect them.
In this, he is pursing the path paved by his father and his grandfather before him.
Any wavering on the way would remove the justification for the brutal repression and for his rule.
If you look at it this way, the more the Americans, the Japanese and the South Koreans, and even the Chinese, keep flopping around between wanting to engage him and wanting the bomb him the better. Who cares about these foreigners?
He just has to be careful not to be too provocative. If he went too far and the Americans were to bomb the nuclear facilities or if the South Koreans were to retaliate severely, his military weakness would be exposed.
If this is an accurate assessment of Kim's outlook, you can see that it does allow for the appearance of change. For example, the prevalence of markets around the country excites a lot of foreigners. Let them be excited, he thinks. What's really changed?
Also, let's bring on a Korean War peace treaty and diplomatic relations with the United States. So what? There's been a British Embassy in Pyongyang for several years. I don't hear that has made any difference to anyone.
But think of what he would be scared of besides being attacked militarily.
I can think of two. The first would be to address the delusion that North Koreans are at war. If South Korea were to drop its posture of wanting to reunify with North Korea without waiting for any mutual recognition and if it were to articulate this in a way that convinced the Chinese they need no longer fear the idea of US troops on their border, the delusion might start to wear thin.
The second would be to get people laughing at him ― inside North Korea. That's what the balloons are for and it's why he is so terrified of them. Chances are, though, that the next South Korean government might be persuaded to pressure the activists to stop sending them.
Then, it will be more of the same.
Michael Breen is the CEO of Insight Communications Consultants, a public relations company, and author of "The Koreans" and "Kim Jong-il: North Korea's Dear Leader."
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We may think that North Korea is a poor and backward country shaking its fist at the world. But, for them, that's just fine.
This is an irony because things naturally change and people want those changes to be for the better.
The world, despite crises like the mix-up in the best picture awards at the Oscars, and Brexit and other stuff, is indeed changing for the better. Most countries are growing wealthier and democratizing.
Maintaining things just this way is not a winning election strategy. But, if that's what you're committed to, as the North Koreans are, it calls for hard work and a lot of strategizing.
This may sound cynical, but consider the circumstances from Kim Jong-un's point of view. He is only 33 years old but, instead of moving up in a company, or saving for a new car, he is an absolute leader. He's been one for a few years now, so it may even have gotten boring.
Instead of pursuing youthful ambition, he is probably more consumed by the scary fact that he is looking at another 50 or 60 years at the top during which time someone is bound to try and do to him what he just did to his brother.
As he peers down from the balcony at the fawning masses or across the room at the be-medaled generals, he probably imagines, rightly or wrongly, a vision of his own coffin lurking behind that applause.
The only way to stay safe is to be needed and to be feared. To that end, he has to keep the elite nervous by occasionally flinging a random offender into the gulag for a few years or actually having one executed for some imagined offense.
And he has to keep the people tethered. This he does with a delusion and a lie. The delusion is to convince them they are at war and the lie is that he is the only one with sufficient courage and brilliance to protect them.
In this, he is pursing the path paved by his father and his grandfather before him.
Any wavering on the way would remove the justification for the brutal repression and for his rule.
If you look at it this way, the more the Americans, the Japanese and the South Koreans, and even the Chinese, keep flopping around between wanting to engage him and wanting the bomb him the better. Who cares about these foreigners?
He just has to be careful not to be too provocative. If he went too far and the Americans were to bomb the nuclear facilities or if the South Koreans were to retaliate severely, his military weakness would be exposed.
If this is an accurate assessment of Kim's outlook, you can see that it does allow for the appearance of change. For example, the prevalence of markets around the country excites a lot of foreigners. Let them be excited, he thinks. What's really changed?
Also, let's bring on a Korean War peace treaty and diplomatic relations with the United States. So what? There's been a British Embassy in Pyongyang for several years. I don't hear that has made any difference to anyone.
But think of what he would be scared of besides being attacked militarily.
I can think of two. The first would be to address the delusion that North Koreans are at war. If South Korea were to drop its posture of wanting to reunify with North Korea without waiting for any mutual recognition and if it were to articulate this in a way that convinced the Chinese they need no longer fear the idea of US troops on their border, the delusion might start to wear thin.
The second would be to get people laughing at him ― inside North Korea. That's what the balloons are for and it's why he is so terrified of them. Chances are, though, that the next South Korean government might be persuaded to pressure the activists to stop sending them.
Then, it will be more of the same.
Michael Breen is the CEO of Insight Communications Consultants, a public relations company, and author of "The Koreans" and "Kim Jong-il: North Korea's Dear Leader."
