The concert of Asia

By John Burton

Next year will mark the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of World War I. Historians still argue whether Europe's plunge into war was an accidental outcome or inevitable. But what is indisputable is that the events of August 1914 did mark the sudden collapse of a system that had kept Europe largely peaceful for the previous century.

The stability that prevailed in Europe during the 99 years after the end of Napoleonic wars in 1815 was due to what was known as the Concert of Europe. This system to maintain a balance of power among the major European powers was forged during the Congress of Vienna when the map of Europe was redrawn after the downfall of Napoleon.

The Concert system had no formal institution, but was based on a tacit understanding that it was the common responsibility of the five great European powers ― Great Britain, Austria, Prussia, Russia and France ― to preserve the international order.

This rested on the belief that all the great powers had a right to a voice in solving problems and any member could propose a conference at a time of crisis. Numerous conferences were held as a result during the 19th century and continued right up to 1913, when a conference in London was called to settle the 1912-13 Balkan Wars.

The Concert of Europe is credited with helping maintain order, which promoted Europe's rapid economic growth in the 19th century. The system faced its severest test with the rise of Germany after the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War. This irrevocably altered the balance of power and led to the creation of two opposing coalitions that split Europe, with one supporting Germany and the other opposing it.

But even then the conditions for accommodation continued to exist and there was general acknowledgement that the full unleashing of force to solve disputes was unthinkable since it could lead to the destruction of Europe.

It was the supreme irony that the Concert of Europe that was borne in Vienna was condemned to death in Vienna in 1914 when the capital of the Austro-Hungarian Empire decided to launch a disproportionate response to the assassination of the Austrian archduke in Sarajevo and then rejected Britain's proposal to call a conference to stem the escalating crisis. It was Vienna's miscalculation and its full support from Germany in its decision that triggered the outbreak of World War I.

Many analysts are now drawing parallels between 1914 Europe and current events in East Asia, with an assertive China in the role of Imperial Germany as the rising continental power threatening the established regional powers of the U.S. and Japan. Fears of a looming clash have been set off by China's recent decision to establish an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, challenging Japan's sovereignty over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands that are claimed by both countries.

Will the Senkakus prove to be the trigger to war as Sarajevo was in 1914?

That scenario may seem far-fetched, but so was the idea of a European war in 1914. Sarajevo showed that a headline-grabbing incident in a disputed region, such as was Bosnia between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, could set off a chain reaction of events fueled by nationalist tensions.

What is particularly troubling is there is no mechanism like a "Concert of Asia" to negotiate differences. Peace in the region during the postwar period has largely been maintained through the overwhelming military dominance of the U.S.

The leaders of the other major regional powers, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia, do meet regularly at such forums as ASEAN + 3 and APEC, but only briefly and usually in bilateral formats. The Six-Party Talks involving North Korea have been the only time in recent years that all regional powers would sit down to discuss a single issue.

The establishment of the Chinese ADIZ occurs at a particularly sensitive time when relations between Japan and its erstwhile ally South Korea, as well as China, have rapidly deteriorated due to nationalist point scoring. Another combustible element is the potential instability in North Korea, whose collapse could lead to a clash between China and the U.S. The Koreans have often played the same role in modern Asian history as the Balkans did in the 19th century, being the source of regional conflicts.

Margaret Macmillian, the author of the recent book, "The War That Ended Peace: The Road to 1914," notes: "In the Europe of 1914, the growth of nationalist feeling ― encouraged from above but rising from the grassroots where historians, linguists and folklorists were busy creating stories of ancient and eternal enmities ― did much to cause ill will among nations who might otherwise have been friends. What Freud called the ‘narcissism of small differences' can lead to violence and death."

That sounds similar to the current mood in East Asia and the absence of frequent and constructive dialogue among the regional powers is frightening.

John Burton, a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Seoul-based independent journalist and media consultant. He can be reached at john.burton@insightcomms.com.

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