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As tensions continue on the Korean peninsula, and while there is no prospect of a breakthrough to the worsening confrontation between Seoul and Pyongyang, the whole issue of North Korea ― including its nuclear and missile programs ― is getting out of control for South Korea, becoming an issue of strategic competition between Beijing and Washington.
Seoul has rejected Pyongyang's repeated proposals for holding inter-Korean military talks, which was suggested by Kim Jong-un during the 7th party congress of the Korean Workers Party and was followed up by the ministry of armed forces under the DPRK's national defense commission.
Seoul determined that it was the time to focus on sanctions, not talks, suspecting that the proposal was a scheme to loosen up the unity of the international community regarding the sanctions levied on Pyongyang, and to divide the South Korean public. The South insists inter-Korean talks are meaningless, unless it deals with denuclearization.
In the meantime, the North Korean issue is slipping out of the hands of South Korea. It appears that Seoul is losing the challenge and the opportunity to improve the security environment and to influence changes in the North that it wants to see happen.
More bilateral sanctions followed the toughest ever UN Security Council Resolution 2270 against the DPRK. South Korea, Japan, the EU, and the United States have imposed bilateral sanctions. China says it will fully implement the UN sanctions with the hope that the North return to the negotiation table. Washington is appreciative of Beijing's co-authorship of and its commitment to the UN sanctions.
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel confirmed, at a news conference on a preview of the 8th SED (Strategic and Economic Dialogue) with China for June 5 to 7 in Beijing, that the goal of the 2270 is "not to bring North Korea to its knees but to its senses" and "to look for a North Korean agreement to negotiate the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."
On June 1, the U.S. Treasury Department designated North Korea as a "primary money laundering concern" under the U.S. Patriot Act in an effort to cut off Pyongyang's access to all international financial institutions, which would block North Korea's trade. The Treasury's action was announced amid the alleged reports that Pyongyang absconded with tens of millions of dollars by hacking the central bank of Bangladesh.
The latest U.S. sanction was already mandated by the UN resolution. The difference is that the new U.S. sanction can punish a third country's financial institutions if it is involved in transactions with a North Korean bank or an entity. Most likely targets are Chinese banks doing business with North Korea that may or may not be legitimate under the UN sanctions.
The Wall Street Journal has reported the new Treasury Department sanction raises "direct economic conflict with China." It could be a major contentious issue at the next round of the SED, where isolation of North Korea will be a major topic.
Against the pressure of condemnation and sanctions from the international community, North Korea continues to advance its nuclear and missile technology. Experts believe the North is ready to conduct a fifth nuclear test to demonstrate its perfection of a hydrogen bomb. In January, the North Koreans claimed a successful detonation of a hydrogen bomb, but Western scientists saw it only as "a boosted atomic bomb test".
The North keeps conducting tests of short and intermediate range missiles, including Musudan missiles from mobile launches with a maximum range of 3,000 to 5,000 kilometers. All four tests of the Musudan missile so far this year have failed. However, these failures suggest that they will not give up the effort to improve their nuclear delivery systems.
To complicate the situation, Chinese President Xi Jinping, a few days before the convening of the latest SED, welcomed a high ranking North Korean delegation headed by Ri Su-yong, a vice chairman of the Korean Workers Party, and stressed the importance of traditional friendly cooperation between the two socialist states. Xi also wished for "the DPRK's greater success in endeavors for the economy and standards of living."
In line with Beijing's consistent policy on the Korean peninsula, the Xinhua news agency reported, Xi "called for all relevant sides to stay calm, exercise restraint, and enhance communication and dialogue to safeguard regional peace and stability." This is interpreted as a message for the North to stop further provocations and for the U.S. and the South to slow down joint military drills.
It is of significant nuance that Xi met with Ri's delegation after the latter conveyed a clear message to the chairman of international relations of the Chinese Communist Party that Pyongyang would uphold its renewed policy of parallel development of nuclear weapons and the economy. However, it is unlikely that Kim Jong-un's "personal verbal message" to Xi discussed Pyongyang's parallel direction of nuclear and economic development.
An upside to the situation: Pyongyang keeps saying it would behave as a responsible nuclear weapon's state to contribute to non-proliferation, it would not use nuclear weapons first, and it would safeguard the safety of its nuclear program. It is better to hear them talk about dialogue with the South to avoid an accidental war than hearing their belligerent rhetoric of threats to wage a preemptive nuclear strike against the South and the United States.
Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo are very much on the same page on North Korea, with President Obama stressing at the recent G-7 meeting a stronger allied deterrent against North Korean nuclear threats and the nuclear envoys ― from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea ― calling for more sanctions for Pyongyang's failed missile tests.
The problem is that nobody knows for sure what it would take to resolve the North Korean issue that has gone out of control. A collapse of North Korea is unlikely in the near term; there is no assurance that the North would succumb to the pressure of sanctions; and the U.S. rebalance to Asia tends to drive China towards protecting North Korea rather than punishing it. What's your take?
Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.
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