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On April 13, South Korea will elect 300 representatives to a new National Assembly amid concerns of a worsening relationship with the North and the woes of a stagnant economy. The general election will be carried out in a three-way race between the ruling Saenuri Party, the major opposition Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK) and the newly created Party of the People, a splinter opposition party.
All three parties have disappointed the voters during their respective primaries and nominating processes. They all failed to take any constructive steps towards political reform and productive politics. Instead, they were involved in factional, divisive politics, internal bickering and power struggles. There were few policy debates among candidates, and the voters learned little about what their candidates would do, if they were elected.
The outcome of the general election will likely influence President Park Geun-hye's ability to run the country for the remainder of her term in office until February 2018. If her ruling party loses, she would be able to accomplish little. However, it is expected that the ruling Saenuri Party ― despite bad publicity of internal feuds ― will still win most seats in the next National Assembly.
The ruling party has an advantage of competing with the divided opposition parties. In most races, votes for the opposition will be divided, thus benefiting the candidates of the ruling party. The MPK is expected to win enough seats to claim the status of the first opposition party. The Party of the People is expected to become the second opposition party with the third largest number of seats.
The next National Assembly will not change the practice of Korean politics dominated by presidential power, although it may present a stronger third party, striving for new reformative politics, with many more additional seats. Election outcomes are often determined by ideological, generational and geographical divides.
On the national level, no party is presenting a new policy idea that will stand out as a dominant issue. As in previous elections, the campaigns are again focusing on two basic issues: national security and economic well-being. The people basically expect their representative government to protect their security from external threats and to provide an improved livelihood.
On the local level, candidates hand out campaign pledges for the benefit of their constituents through pork barrel and some local projects. Ideally, national lawmakers, while representing the interest and the views of the electorate districts from which they are elected, should work across the aisle with the priority on what is good for the country.
President Park is considered an "election queen" who pulled off victories for conservative candidates whenever they were in trouble. But, as President, she is barred from campaigning for her party candidates. Yet, her influence had strongly factored in the nomination of candidates for the ruling party.
South Korea has a bad experience in which a threatening North Korea tended to benefit conservative parties and their candidates. In this context, it is not surprising that some progressive circles are questioning whether the Park administration is deliberately taking advantage of a tense security situation.
Such speculation appears groundless. President Park's security advisors may have failed to assist the President to stay on the right track in dealing with the North Koreans. However, none of them seems to have been involved in, or even capable of, developing a political scheme to help the ruling party in the general election.
As the South imposes more pressure on the North by way of sanction and military preparedness, Kim Jung-un keeps demonstrating test launches of new rockets, claiming technological breakthroughs in miniaturizing nuclear devices, missile reentry, sea launched ballistic missiles and solid rocket fuel among others. The defense ministry says the North has been making progress towards these claims. The ministry believes that the North is ready for a fifth nuclear test at any time.
In reaction to the joint U.S.-ROK military drills, Pyongyang's Committee of the Peaceful Unification of Korea on March 23 issued another provocative verbal threat that the North Korean forces would wage a preemptive attack on President Park and "other warmongers" and "from within or near the presidential compound" and to "reduce it to a sea of flames and ashes."
After President Park asked the people to beware of North Korean threats, the presidential national security director and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff conducted special meetings to reconfirm their readiness to retaliate to any physical provocation "so devastatingly that the enemy would painfully regret their provocation."
In the United States, presidential primaries are still underway, and it is yet too early to tell who the final Republican and Democratic nominees will be. Two major issues are the same as for South Korea: security and the economy. Bernie Sander's radial agenda of political revolution to end American plutocracy from Wall Street is highly unlikely to be supported by the American people at this point in history.
If Hilary Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner, is elected in November, there will be no surprise departure from Obama's foreign policy. If Donald Trump beats the former secretary of state, it is not certain how U.S. policy for Korea might change. Judging from his campaign statements or from the unfamiliar names of his foreign policy advisors, South Korea will probably be asked to do more for its own defense.
In the Korean elections, the ROK-U.S. alliance is not an issue, because all the three major parties are well aware that an absolute majority of the Korean people is strongly in support of the alliance. However, the elections provide an opportunity for the candidates to think what they can and should do to contribute to maintaining peace and promoting prosperity for all Koreans. What's your take?
Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.
