By Mahmood Elahi
This refers to "Taiwan's DMZ," by Lee Seong-hyon, published in The Korea Times on Feb. 8.
The writer raises an important analogy between growing economic relations between China and Taiwan and the potential of such relations between North and South Korea when he says: "Another one-hour flight took me back to Taipei. As I was exiting the military base of Songshan airport, I saw a China Air plane parked nearby (Songshan has both a military base and a commercial airport). Even though China and Taiwan's relationship sometimes undergoes tense moments, and even though there is sometimes war rhetoric used, I realized they have come this much closer to each other. The economies, transportation and people of Taiwan and China are significantly integrated in real life. That's something absent in the two Koreas' relationship. That's something Koreans need to emulate."
While visiting China a few years ago, I had an interesting discussion with a fluent English-speaking graduate student at Shanghai University. When I told him that I write for newspapers, he agreed to talk about current affairs provided I don't use his name. We talked about China's meteoric rise as an economic superpower. He told me that China's rise has been peaceful. When I asked him about China's relations with Taiwan, he told me that the economies of China and Taiwan are deeply integrated and it is only a matter of time before Taiwan peacefully joins China while retaining its distinct identity.
He told me that Hong Kong as a Special Administrative Region can serve as a model. Hong Kong has its own currency, legal system and legislative body within China. This can be expanded to suit Taiwan. Taiwan can have its armed forces for its defense. Only it will come to China's assistance if China's security is threatened. Taiwan can have its own representations abroad. Only in such international events such as the Olympics, World Cup and others, China and Taiwan will field joint teams.
He also told me China is by far Taiwan's biggest trading partner and the biggest source of investment for China. If there is peace among them, their economies will become even more deeply integrated and economic forces will propel them towards peaceful unification.
He also told me that China has no interest in using force against Taiwan. Any invasion of Taiwan will be like killing the golden goose. It will only lead to drying up of the investment from Taiwan, causing tremendous damage to China's economy. Taiwan, for its part, cannot afford to alienate China. If it acts unilaterally, all China will have to is to impose a trade embargo, which will be catastrophic for Taiwan.
As for the diplomatic between China and Taiwan, this is basically shadow boxing for public consumption. Both China and Taiwan know that they cannot hurt each other without hurting themselves. So the key is economic cooperation.
And their economies are now integrated without any parallel in the world. Taiwan began investing in China after reform policies were implemented by PRC leader Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s. Despite intermittent friction, the cross-strait economic relationship has blossomed. China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001 and, within a month, Taiwan entered as "Chinese Taipei." The island holds member, observer, or other status in more than forty organizations, such as the Asian Development Bank, APEC, OECD committees and regional fishery organizations. Separately, Beijing said it would welcome Taiwan's membership in the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank "under the appropriate name."
Bilateral trade between China (including the mainland, Hong Kong, and Macao) and Taiwan in 2017 reached $181.76 billion, up from $35 billion in 1999. China is Taiwan's largest trading partner, accounting for more than 30 percent of the island's total trade, according to Taiwan's bureau of foreign trade.
In 2015, the number of direct flights between China and Taiwan hit about 900 per week, up from 270 in 2009. More than 9.4 million people traveled across the strait in 2014, and in September 2015 Taiwan upped its daily quota of mainland visitors from 4,000 to 5,000. Revived tensions in recent years, however, has dampened tourism. Even so, the number of tourists from the mainland still outnumbers tourists from all other countries combined.
Economically, Taiwan has sought to diversify its commercial partnerships to avoid outright dependence on the mainland. In addition to ECFA, Taiwan has signed a handful of other free-trade pacts, including a deal with New Zealand in 2013 ― Taiwan's first with a developed economy. Investments by Taiwanese firms in Southeast Asia's six largest economies doubled between 2011 and 2015, reaching more than $13 billion. However, these are a fraction of Taiwan's trade and investment vis a vis China.
This brings us to the question of whether China-Taiwan can serve as a model for emerging normalization of relations between North and South Korea. For decades, North and South Korea have been involved in a standoff similar to that which existed between China and Taiwan. But both China and Taiwan were quick to accept the opportunity offered by China's openness and modernization program. This has allowed both of them to eschew confrontation in favor of cooperation.
Although both China and Taiwan continued their "shadow boxing," they remain committed to improving bilateral trade and investment relations. North and South Korea can replicate this. In this context, South Korean President Moon Jae-in's dual track diplomacy of improving bilateral relations with North Korea while coordinating with U.S. President Donald Trump to pressure North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to denuclearize may set the stage for peaceful integration and eventual reunification of two Koreas.
Key to this is phased denuclearization of North Korea in exchange for gradual lifting of sanctions. In the coming summit between Trump and Kim, this approach must be emphasized. Kim has already agreed to denuclearize, but he has not taken any step toward that goal. He must now present a clear road map for denuclearization. Only then can sanctions be lifted.
Economic cooperation between China and Taiwan has shown how two countries can move towards integration without compromising their distinctiveness once they stopped to threaten each other. Similarly, North and South Korea can expand their cooperation if they stop threatening each other.
Mahmood Elahi (omega51@sympatico.ca) is a freelance writer in Ottawa.
