By John Burton
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Notably absent from the latest Trump-Kim encounter was John Bolton, the U.S national security adviser, who has consistently pursued a hardline policy on North Korea since his days in the George W. Bush administration. Instead, Trump sent Bolton to Mongolia for a meeting with that country's foreign minister while the U.S. president pursued his personal diplomacy with Kim.
Bolton had been partly blamed for the failure of the Hanoi summit. He urged Trump to pursue a "big deal" with Kim ― demanding that Pyongyang trade away all of its nuclear weapons before sanctions can be lifted ― instead of adopting a more incremental approach. Kim balked at that suggestion.
There is speculation in Washington that Bolton is on the way out. Trump also pointedly ignored Bolton's advice recently to launch a military strike against Iran. While Bolton was once seen as calling the shots on Trump's foreign policy, the U.S. State Department is now asserting more influence.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is also seen as a hawk. But he has also apparently decided that the best strategy for his long-time survival in the administration is to start adapting himself to Trump's isolationist instincts. A successful record at the State Department could bolster Pompeo's ambitions to succeed Trump as a future president.
North Korea represents a case study of Pompeo's evolving position. It was his team that was charged with putting together the last-minute details on the DMZ visit.
Pompeo is also giving Stephen Biegun, the special U.S. envoy to North Korea, a more important role in spearheading a strategy toward Pyongyang. There is speculation that Biegun could replace Bolton as national security adviser if the latter is ousted.
Biegun has signaled in recent months a more flexible attitude on North Korea. He recently told U.S. humanitarian groups that he would try to ease restrictions on aid to North Korea after initially expressing skepticism about such proposals.
Even before the Hanoi summit, Biegun was already talking about "a simultaneous step-by-step process" to deal with North Korea instead of seeking to achieve an "all or nothing" bargain advocated by Bolton.
This is likely to become the new diplomatic approach by the Trump administration toward North Korea as Biegun resumes negotiations with Pyongyang in the coming weeks.
Biegun recently told reporters in an off-the-record briefing, according to the news site Axios, that Washington would accept a "complete freeze" of North Korea's nuclear weapons production in return for concessions such as increased humanitarian aid and improved diplomatic ties, including setting up liaison offices in each other's capitals. This would then lead to further talks on a roadmap for North Korea's complete denuclearization and the lifting of economic sanctions.
Moreover, Biegun has played an important behind-the-scenes role in marshaling support among other regional power to restart the nuclear negotiations. Biegun went to Beijing in March to explore ways that China could play a bigger role in breaking the deadlock with Pyongyang.
That visit appears to have triggered a series of events that led to the DMZ summit. It may have helped persuade Chinese President Xi Jinping to make his first-ever visit to North Korea. Xi's clear intention was to encourage a resumption of talks between Washington and Pyongyang in return for Trump easing his aggressive trade policy on China.
Biegun will be under great pressure to achieve results in the coming months. Trump will want to claim a diplomatic victory ahead of the 2020 presidential election, although he says he is in "no rush" to conclude a deal.
Even if Pyongyang agrees to freeze its nuclear programs in return for U.S. concessions, North Korea would eventually have to provide a list of nuclear facilities to verify this freeze process and begin closing them before the U.S. could agree to start easing sanctions.
In addition, to make any such deal politically acceptable in Washington, North Korea would have to hand over some of fissile nuclear material it has already produced, an idea already raised by Biegun.
China and Russia might play a role in achieving this. Both countries have probably concluded that they need to support Trump's efforts on the North Korea nuclear issue since he is in danger of being placed by a Democratic administration that would adopt a tougher line due to human rights concerns.
In the spirit of great power cooperation, Beijing and Moscow would offer security guarantees to Pyongyang in return for the disposal of fissile material handed over by North Korea.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
