By John Burton
Many things divide North and South Korea. But the two appear to share the same growing fear that a possibly mentally unstable U.S. president could plunge the Korean Peninsula into a horrendous conventional war and even a nuclear one.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un spotted that opportunity to win over South Korea when he proposed in his New Year address holding direct talks with Seoul, which will result in today's scheduled meeting between the two sides in Panmunjeom, their first high-level dialogue in two years.
Kim's clever diplomatic move underscores that this year could determine the future relationship between Washington and Seoul. It will also provide a test of how willing President Moon Jae-in is to stand up to the Trump administration and whether that will force the U.S. to take a less aggressive approach to Pyongyang.
Kim is pushing hard the nationalist button to win support in the South. He referred in his speech to "uriminzokkiri" (among us Koreans only) in creating peace on the Korean Peninsula and he reached out to Koreans overseas as well. It is the type of appeal that won favor among South Korea's leftist students and labor unions in the past.
My money is that today's meeting will result in North Korea participating in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics next month because Kim is betting that South Koreans will be shown on global TV rooting as much for the North Korean athletes (however few there will be) as South Korean ones in a show of ethnic solidarity against outside forces, i.e. the U.S.
Some believe that Kim will try to overplay his hand by staging missile tests in the next few weeks. But I believe that Kim will resist such moves in the near-term since he wants to stage a propaganda coup at the Olympics in front of the world.
Indeed, Kim has already won a victory of sorts since Washington is expected to postpone its annual joint military training exercises with South Korea until after the Olympics are over in mid-March.
North Korea's participation in the Olympics could set the stage for more wide-ranging discussions with Seoul later. With Kim's announcement that his country has completed its nuclear program, he may pivot toward seeking some form of economic cooperation with South Korea that would undermine the "maximum pressure" sanctions being pushed by the U.S. Moon might be tempted to reopen the Gaeseong Industrial Complex given the controversial circumstances of its closure under former President Park Geun-hye.
If he does so, in the belief that it will ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, Moon will face criticism by conservatives at home as well as the U.S., which could potentially weaken relations with Washington. But the U.S. has only itself to blame for a more independent stance by Moon in the face of Trump's deliberately provocative language against Pyongyang.
Whether the momentum toward engagement will last after the Olympics remains to be seen. A lot will depend on the actions of Pyongyang, Washington and Seoul.
On Pyongyang's part, it must refrain from continuing nuclear and missile tests to avoid antagonizing South Korea and the U.S. If it does so, then Washington needs to sit down for talks with North Korea without demanding the precondition of Pyongyang committing itself first to denuclearization, something that it is unlikely to happen. A show of good faith on the U.S. part would be scaling back its joint military exercises with South Korea.
And this is where Moon needs to play a crucial role by persuading the U.S. to agree to take such an action. If Washington refuses to do so, then Moon should remind Trump that the U.S.-South Korean alliance should be a collaborative one.
If Trump refuses to pay any attention and continues to tweet insults aimed at Kim that threaten to disrupt the signs of detente on the peninsula, then perhaps it's time for Moon to stand up to the U.S. president and pursue a policy of engagement on his own.
Moon should argue that dialogue with the North is more urgent than ever since North and South Korea, not the U.S., would bear the brunt of any conflict and the next several months could prove crucial in preventing a war. If Moon is blamed for weakening the sanctions regime against North Korea by reopening Gaeseong, for example, his response should be that the U.S. should be offering a diplomatic exit ramp for Pyongyang to de-escalate its nuclear program.
Moon, of course, would be rightly faulted for making concessions if North Korea continues testing its nuclear arsenal, but if Pyongyang decides on a moratorium, then the South Korean president would be in his rights to pursue detente on his own if necessary.
Kim has been very skillful in trying to drive a wedge between the U.S. and South Korea, but it is really the responsibility of Washington to correct the situation.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un spotted that opportunity to win over South Korea when he proposed in his New Year address holding direct talks with Seoul, which will result in today's scheduled meeting between the two sides in Panmunjeom, their first high-level dialogue in two years.
Kim's clever diplomatic move underscores that this year could determine the future relationship between Washington and Seoul. It will also provide a test of how willing President Moon Jae-in is to stand up to the Trump administration and whether that will force the U.S. to take a less aggressive approach to Pyongyang.
Kim is pushing hard the nationalist button to win support in the South. He referred in his speech to "uriminzokkiri" (among us Koreans only) in creating peace on the Korean Peninsula and he reached out to Koreans overseas as well. It is the type of appeal that won favor among South Korea's leftist students and labor unions in the past.
My money is that today's meeting will result in North Korea participating in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics next month because Kim is betting that South Koreans will be shown on global TV rooting as much for the North Korean athletes (however few there will be) as South Korean ones in a show of ethnic solidarity against outside forces, i.e. the U.S.
Some believe that Kim will try to overplay his hand by staging missile tests in the next few weeks. But I believe that Kim will resist such moves in the near-term since he wants to stage a propaganda coup at the Olympics in front of the world.
Indeed, Kim has already won a victory of sorts since Washington is expected to postpone its annual joint military training exercises with South Korea until after the Olympics are over in mid-March.
North Korea's participation in the Olympics could set the stage for more wide-ranging discussions with Seoul later. With Kim's announcement that his country has completed its nuclear program, he may pivot toward seeking some form of economic cooperation with South Korea that would undermine the "maximum pressure" sanctions being pushed by the U.S. Moon might be tempted to reopen the Gaeseong Industrial Complex given the controversial circumstances of its closure under former President Park Geun-hye.
If he does so, in the belief that it will ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, Moon will face criticism by conservatives at home as well as the U.S., which could potentially weaken relations with Washington. But the U.S. has only itself to blame for a more independent stance by Moon in the face of Trump's deliberately provocative language against Pyongyang.
Whether the momentum toward engagement will last after the Olympics remains to be seen. A lot will depend on the actions of Pyongyang, Washington and Seoul.
On Pyongyang's part, it must refrain from continuing nuclear and missile tests to avoid antagonizing South Korea and the U.S. If it does so, then Washington needs to sit down for talks with North Korea without demanding the precondition of Pyongyang committing itself first to denuclearization, something that it is unlikely to happen. A show of good faith on the U.S. part would be scaling back its joint military exercises with South Korea.
And this is where Moon needs to play a crucial role by persuading the U.S. to agree to take such an action. If Washington refuses to do so, then Moon should remind Trump that the U.S.-South Korean alliance should be a collaborative one.
If Trump refuses to pay any attention and continues to tweet insults aimed at Kim that threaten to disrupt the signs of detente on the peninsula, then perhaps it's time for Moon to stand up to the U.S. president and pursue a policy of engagement on his own.
Moon should argue that dialogue with the North is more urgent than ever since North and South Korea, not the U.S., would bear the brunt of any conflict and the next several months could prove crucial in preventing a war. If Moon is blamed for weakening the sanctions regime against North Korea by reopening Gaeseong, for example, his response should be that the U.S. should be offering a diplomatic exit ramp for Pyongyang to de-escalate its nuclear program.
Moon, of course, would be rightly faulted for making concessions if North Korea continues testing its nuclear arsenal, but if Pyongyang decides on a moratorium, then the South Korean president would be in his rights to pursue detente on his own if necessary.
Kim has been very skillful in trying to drive a wedge between the U.S. and South Korea, but it is really the responsibility of Washington to correct the situation.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
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