By Na Jeong-ju, politics editor
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North Korea is showing signs of preparing to launch another ballistic missile soon ― this time probably using a submarine.
The harsh reality facing South Korea is that it has few options to counter the North's additional provocations. The Kim Jong-un regime has completely ignored President Moon Jae-in's repeated dialogue overtures. It did not even show any interest in Moon's offer to restore an inter-Korean communication hotline and replace the Korean War armistice with a peace treaty.
This is surely embarrassing for Moon, who has repeatedly said he wants to sit in the "driver's seat" to play a leading role in finding solutions to the nuclear crisis.
Moon probably wanted to prove he could change the status quo through inter-Korean dialogue. However, it seems his dialogue proposals were out of touch with reality. Even the United States and Japan showed skepticism about Moon's extensions of the olive branch.
The point is North Korea has not changed at all, and this makes the South Korean leader look naive.
If North Korea does conduct a new missile test, it will be a clear message to Moon it is not willing to stop its provocations _ and does not want to waste time dealing with the South. This is because the regime has a clear goal. It wants to complete development of nuclear-tipped missiles that can attack the U.S. mainland as quickly as possible, and use this as leverage to gain concessions from Washington through bilateral talks.
In other words, Pyongyang will not approach Seoul until it sees a need to do so.
Despite this, Moon's top priority will not change. He will continue to make efforts to find a peaceful solution to the crisis and prevent another conflict on the Korean Peninsula. This is also a task the Korean people gave him in this turbulent era.
Some critics branded Moon as an idealist full of premature ideas about North Korea, referring to his "futile" efforts to bring it back to the negotiations.
But my thinking is he clearly understands what he is doing. He is rather becoming a shrewd strategist through active contacts with the leaders of powerful countries.
In his first meeting with the Cabinet since returning from the G20 gathering in Germany, he revealed his frustrations with Seoul's inability in handling the North Korean nuclear crisis.
Commenting on conflicts of interest among the superpowers involved, he lamented, "We are not strong enough to resolve this problem. We have no power to arrange a settlement (among the concerned countries), either."
Days after the meeting, Moon vowed to build up the country's military strength while announcing his administration's five-year policy roadmap.
"We can maintain peace only when we have dominant military forces over North Korea," he said.
According to his aides at Cheong Wa Dae, Moon deliberately avoided topics related to the U.S. anti-missile Terminal High Altitude Area Defense in South Korea during his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in late June. Instead, he consumed considerable time in seeking Trump's understanding about why South Korea needs a stronger military, and how it is helpful for Washington in containing Pyongyang.
Media reports show, during the summit, Moon raised the issue of revising the Seoul-Washington missile development guidelines so Seoul can double the maximum weight of warheads on its ballistic missiles from the current 500 kilograms. Moon maintained that South Korea should be allowed to have more powerful missiles to destroy underground facilities in the North in the event of a contingency.
Revising the guidelines is expected to be on the agenda during the annual Korea-U.S. Security Consultative Meeting and their Integrated Defense Dialogue this year.
There is also speculation Moon is seeking U.S. consent to develop a nuclear-powered attack submarine to deter threats from the North's submarine-launched ballistic missile.
North Korea is showing signs of preparing to launch another ballistic missile soon ― this time probably using a submarine.The harsh reality facing South Korea is that it has few options to counter the North's additional provocations. The Kim Jong-un regime has completely ignored President Moon Jae-in's repeated dialogue overtures. It did not even show any interest in Moon's offer to restore an inter-Korean communication hotline and replace the Korean War armistice with a peace treaty.
This is surely embarrassing for Moon, who has repeatedly said he wants to sit in the "driver's seat" to play a leading role in finding solutions to the nuclear crisis.
Moon probably wanted to prove he could change the status quo through inter-Korean dialogue. However, it seems his dialogue proposals were out of touch with reality. Even the United States and Japan showed skepticism about Moon's extensions of the olive branch.
The point is North Korea has not changed at all, and this makes the South Korean leader look naive.
If North Korea does conduct a new missile test, it will be a clear message to Moon it is not willing to stop its provocations _ and does not want to waste time dealing with the South. This is because the regime has a clear goal. It wants to complete development of nuclear-tipped missiles that can attack the U.S. mainland as quickly as possible, and use this as leverage to gain concessions from Washington through bilateral talks.
In other words, Pyongyang will not approach Seoul until it sees a need to do so.
Despite this, Moon's top priority will not change. He will continue to make efforts to find a peaceful solution to the crisis and prevent another conflict on the Korean Peninsula. This is also a task the Korean people gave him in this turbulent era.
Some critics branded Moon as an idealist full of premature ideas about North Korea, referring to his "futile" efforts to bring it back to the negotiations.
But my thinking is he clearly understands what he is doing. He is rather becoming a shrewd strategist through active contacts with the leaders of powerful countries.
In his first meeting with the Cabinet since returning from the G20 gathering in Germany, he revealed his frustrations with Seoul's inability in handling the North Korean nuclear crisis.
Commenting on conflicts of interest among the superpowers involved, he lamented, "We are not strong enough to resolve this problem. We have no power to arrange a settlement (among the concerned countries), either."
Days after the meeting, Moon vowed to build up the country's military strength while announcing his administration's five-year policy roadmap.
"We can maintain peace only when we have dominant military forces over North Korea," he said.
According to his aides at Cheong Wa Dae, Moon deliberately avoided topics related to the U.S. anti-missile Terminal High Altitude Area Defense in South Korea during his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in late June. Instead, he consumed considerable time in seeking Trump's understanding about why South Korea needs a stronger military, and how it is helpful for Washington in containing Pyongyang.
Media reports show, during the summit, Moon raised the issue of revising the Seoul-Washington missile development guidelines so Seoul can double the maximum weight of warheads on its ballistic missiles from the current 500 kilograms. Moon maintained that South Korea should be allowed to have more powerful missiles to destroy underground facilities in the North in the event of a contingency.
Revising the guidelines is expected to be on the agenda during the annual Korea-U.S. Security Consultative Meeting and their Integrated Defense Dialogue this year.
There is also speculation Moon is seeking U.S. consent to develop a nuclear-powered attack submarine to deter threats from the North's submarine-launched ballistic missile.
