By Dave Durbach
Korea Times Correspondent
JOHANNESBURG ― The 2010 FIFA World Cup is only three months away. The draw is set, the stadiums are complete. The world counts down with a mixture of excitement and trepidation at the prospect of Africa hosting its first World Cup. Expectations are no less varied in the Rainbow Nation itself.
At the Southgate shopping center in Soweto, a stone's throw from Soccer City ― the 90, 000-seater flagship stadium where South Korea will meet Argentina on June 17 ― Frank, 37, from Pretoria, manages a private security firm that operates at the center. He's looking forward to the event, but doubts business at the center will pick up. "I'm sure it will improve, but not significantly. It was quiet here during the Confederations Cup." Safety-wise, he says there is no reason to worry. "I work in security, so we see everything around here."
Desmond, 37, manages EuroSuit, a suit rental business in the same shopping complex. "Well, for this business, I don't see any opportunities, because we are a hire store for black-tie functions, but in general, I think the World Cup will boost business here, especially the restaurants. Originally I thought crime would be a problem. But the way the new Police Commissioner Bheki Cele, has been dealing with the issue, this has changed. He's a tough guy. All over we see cops. They search at random. It will be a success, this World Cup. The general mood is good."
Vusi, 31, co-owns C'est La Vie hair salon nearby. He is excited about what the World Cup will mean for the country. "All the stars are coming here. We're gonna meet Kaka! It'll be nice to see those people in our country." When it comes to his own business, he's optimistic. "I'm going to have a lot of clients. Business is going to improve. We are so close to the stadium, so it's gonna be easy. They're gonna want to come to these places. For those days, it will pick up. We're gonna have fun. Everyone is waiting for this World Cup. People are so excited about it."
He too is confident that crime will prove to be a non-issue. "I think when it comes to security, our policemen are watching, I think everything is gonna be good. Crime is reducing, bit by bit. People are feeling safer. We don't even have to wait for policemen; we're watching out for each other, because we don't want to embarrass the country."
Vusi's partner, Malapo, 38, agrees that all visitors to SA will be safe. "Most people think that in South Africa there is a lot of crime. But they must just forget about that. People in South Africa are watching each and everyone. Security is fine. Let them come. They must feel free," he said with a smile. "I used to hear them talking about the hooligans that side (in Europe). They can come also. If anyone wants to mess up our World Cup, we will mess them up."
The global recession in 2009 was felt by the people of Soweto, as elsewhere. "This recession, it kills us. Lots of the people here have lost their jobs. It was a hard experience last year," Malapo said. The World Cup holds new opportunities, beginning with an influx in tourists. "It's not far from the stadium here. They are building a lodge here (next to Southgate and the stadium). That's gonna be an advantage to us, for the people to come. They can come and see what Africa looks like, they're gonna feel happy, and help business," he said.
Malapo is quick to acknowledge, however, that while the World Cup may mean a few weeks of improved business, its benefits are unlikely to be felt by those most in need, and will not be a cure for South Africa's rampant inequality. "For those who are rich, they will be rich. Those who are poor, they're still gonna stay poor."
Mike, 26, a Cape Town-based economist working in the development field, elaborates on this point, and relates it to the way FIFA dictates proceedings. "I'm excited for an African country to be hosting such an awesome event, but I'm worried that the political integrity of the country might not hold up to the financial pressure of big multinationals, particularly considering the totalitarian way that FIFA handles all its advertising and marketing. The business model that FIFA uses to monetize the World Cup precludes small South African businesses from being anywhere near the stadiums, so the potential inflow of tourist dollars goes right back to FIFA and not to help grow and develop SA."
For those small businesses already located close to stadiums, such as those in Southgate, their opportunities to cash in on the tournament are limited. Orlando, 43, manages Liquor City, a bottle store at Southgate. "The problem is that FIFA's got the monopoly. FIFA is very stringent about who it gives stuff too. The big guys have got the monopoly on this. But you have to respect it. It doesn't really bother me."
Business is likely to continue as usual. "I'll do OK," he predicts, "because people will drink extra. People will be taking off work. Sporting events for me, I always do OK. Maybe my locals will have parties, some people will get together, stuff like that. The final is over here. People might come here and sit in the carpark and drink a bit before the game. And I'm sure there's a couple of fan-parks around here."
At the end of the day, Orlando realizes the World Cup will be about more than money. "I'm sure the vibe or atmosphere will be better. It will be good for the nation as a whole. It'll be about unity. For me, that's what it's about. I'm not expecting to make money. I don't know if the South African soccer team is gonna do anything. But it's gonna be nice. I just wanna go watch Brazil and Portugal."
Experts, meanwhile, remain skeptical. Professor Stephen Hosking, 54, is head of the economics department at Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University (NMMU) in Port Elizabeth, where Korea will kick off their World Cup campaign against Greece on June 12. He sums up the overall impact of the tournament on South Africa's economy. "We have been enjoying the short run impacts for three years already. Ongoing construction stimulation and optimism about 2010 has mitigated the prevailing recessionary climate. During 2010 we expect sharply increased tourist spending injections." Looking further ahead, Hosking says, the World Cup will help create a more positive image of the country in terms of safety, infrastructure and service levels, which could help attract foreign investment.
He is quick to point out, however, that these benefits will not be felt equally, and that this poses new risks. "There will be a very uneven distribution of the local benefit of hosting the World Cup. One of the risks we face is that the actions of local non-beneficiaries of the World Cup will undo these effects, as they have little incentive to support it. The World Cup is a tailor-made occasion for mounting political pressure against the government." Furthermore, he believes, "a more certain negative impact is increased debt. Much of the infrastructure has been funded through increased government debt. Paying for this and the maintenance will create a post-World Cup hangover for local governments and their funders."
Hosking describes the long-term impacts of the tournament as "trivial," with mining and manufacturing set to remain the main engines of the economy. The World Cup will do little to alleviate the primary constraints on long-term growth, namely road and rail access to markets, and the provision of electricity and water.
Clearly, it remains to be seen how widespread the benefits of the Cup will be for the people of South Africa, particularly outside of host cities and in rural areas. Be that as it may, South Africans are nevertheless looking forward to the event, and to welcoming the world. Says Malapo at C'est La Vie, "We want to welcome them with open hearts. Come and watch the World Cup. See the beauty of Africa!"
durbdev@yahoo.co.in
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