Who Will Lead North Korea After Kim Jong-il?

By Andrei Lankov

Korea Times Columnist

Succession prospects are one of the most frequent questions any North Korean watcher has to deal with. North Korea is a hereditary dictatorship, a de-facto absolute monarchy, and hence it seems logical that sooner or later the aging Kim Jong-il will nominate one of his sons as heir designate ― much like his own father did in the 1970s.

Alas, ``succession talks'' are necessarily speculative. No reliable information on the issue is available. North Koreans know only too well that excessive talkativeness might become deadly when it comes to the personal life of the country's deified first family.

However, it seems strange that the succession has been postponed for so long: Kim should have appointed an heir a decade ago. After all, he had 20 years to prepare for his new role, being appointed as successor to his father in the early 1970s. It is doubtful whether his heir will have that much time at his disposal now. Kim is unlikely to stay alive until 2028.

All this makes me doubt whether the ``Dear General'' really wants to appoint an heir. Therefore, instead of going through another round of speculation about the succession issue, let's have a look at the genealogy of the Kim family that has been ruling North Korea for over 60 years. Whichever way the situation goes, this will be helpful knowledge. Even if no heir is appointed at the time of Kim's death, some of those people will still remain in the spotlight after it ― at least, for a while.

The founding father of the regime, Kim Il-sung, was born in 1912 and joined the anti-Japanese guerrilla resistance in 1932. He had children with two wives. Around 1940 he married a fellow guerilla Kim Jong-suk with whom he had three children. Kim Jong-il, born in Russia in 1942, was their first son. Kim Jong-il's brother died in infancy, but his sister survived and, as we shall see, plays some role in the current "succession calculations".

However, Kim Jong-suk died during childbirth in 1949. Kim Il-sung remarried, and had more children with his second wife, Kim Song-ae. For a brief while, the second consort seemingly nurtured political ambitions, but Kim Il-sung did not want to wreak havoc with the succession. Once in the late 1960s he decided to establish a family rule, he followed the tested practice of ancient dynasties. Unless there were some special reason, the firstborn should become heir. To avoid trouble, Kim Song-ae's children were sent overseas as senior diplomats.

The personal life of Kim Jong-il has been remarkably more turbulent. Young Kim Jong-il loved motorcycles (yes, the ``Dear Leader'' was probably the first North Korean biker), movies and beautiful girls. The junior dictator was widely believed to be a womanizer. These rumors might be exaggerated, but it is clear that he has had children with a number of women. However, we are not writing a TV drama now, even though I am quite sure that the twists and turns of his personal life will eventually inspire a number of drama writers. For our purpose we should concentrate on two women whose children might take part in the succession struggle.

Kim's first marriage (to be more exact, the first stable marriage) took place in the late 1960s. His choice was Song Hye-rim, a movie star and famous beauty who had to divorce her husband in order to move in with the young crown prince. In 1971 she gave birth to Kim Jong-il's first son, Kim Jong-nam. However, this marriage was never approved of by his father who did not like Song Hye-rim's family background.

It is even possible that the marriage was never formally registered, so Song and her children are seen as ``concubine's sons.'' Eventually, the couple broke up, and Song was sent to a comfortable exile in Moscow where she died in 2002.

In the mid-1970s Kim Jong-il fell for a dancer, Ko Yong-hui. However, her origins were also quite problematic. She was born in Japan to a family of ethnic Koreans who later moved to the North. In due time, she gave birth to more children, including two sons. Jong-chol (born in 1979) and Jong-un (1981). They studied in Switzerland, long a favorite playground of the North Korean aristocracy.

Thus, we have two candidates. Jong-nam and Jong-chol (with Kim Jong-un as a distant possibility). However, most experts believe that there is another man who has a strong chance of playing a major role if the system undergoes another dynastic succession. This person is Chang Song-t'aek, the husband of Kim Jong-il's only sister. Born in 1946, he is only a few years younger than Kim Jong-il, but reputedly has better health and greater administrative experience.

At first glance, the choice of Jong-nam as a crown prince seems logical. He is the eldest son, and his age allows him to assume official duties. Indeed, in the 1990s there were numerous stories about his coming promotion. But none took place. One could surmise that this delay might have been caused by Ko Yong-hui who probably waged a campaign to promote her sons instead. Unlike Song Hye-rim who was confined to her Moscow exile, Ko Yong-hui was always next to the ``Dear Leader.''

It is also possible that Jong-nam's chances were influenced by one strange debacle. In May 2001, he was arrested by Japanese immigration authorities while trying to enter Japan on a counterfeit Dominican Republic passport, accompanied by a boy and two women (presumably his girlfriend and their maid). He identified himself, and said he was going to Disneyland Tokyo with his child. Perhaps this was the case. People do not go on secret missions with a toddler in tow. But Kim Jong-il was reportedly annoyed by his eldest son's behavior. Jong-chol seems to be a better candidate, but he is still too young.

In 2002, for a brief while there were some signs that preparations were being launched at last. The North Korean army was issued propaganda material that extolled the great virtues of an unspecified ``female comrade of the Dear Leader.'' She was eulogized in the terms that were once used for Kim Jong-il's mother. It was understood that the ``comrade'' in question was Ko, and this looked like the beginning of promotion of this branch of the royal family. But these plans were interrupted by Ko's sudden death in 2004 (Kim Jong-il soon remarried, of course, with Kim Ok being his new spouse). Since then, the campaign has stopped.

So what will happen next? Opinions are divided ― and one should not forget that most of these opinions are based on hearsay and speculation. It seems that currently most experts believe that some form of collective leadership will emerge, with Jong-ch'ol acting as a figurehead and Chang Song-taek being a mentor and adviser to the younger leader. Some people believe that Km Jong-il's current spouse, Kim Ok, might also play a major role in the future power sharing scheme. Will that be the case? Let's wait and see.