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By Kang Hyun-kyung
Staff Reporter
``There is a major shift in key presidential campaign issues _ the economy is replacing North Korea. And the trend will go on in the coming decades,'' said a political scientist.In an interview with The Korea Times last week, Prof. Hahm Sung-deuk of Korea University questioned if the North Korea card could still be a critical factor that determines the winner of December's presidential election.
According to him, North Korea was one of the major cards that helped presidential aspirants attract the hearts and minds of the voters in previous elections.
But that would not be the case any longer, he asserted.
``After the Asian financial crisis hit the nation in 1997, the effect of the security issue has gradually become less important and the trend will continue in the future as time goes on. Voters are becoming more and more interested in who can help them put more cash into their wallet,'' Hahm said in an article published earlier this year.
He predicted the same rule will be applied to the Dec. 19 election and the economy will become an even more important issue in the future.
His observation seems to go against what is happening in the political arena, particularly in the liberal camp.
Contenders of the liberal camp have raised their voice on North Korea issues and the North Korea card is one of the hottest issues for them to play in the campaign.
Many of them called for holding an inter-Korean summit before the election, and active economic cooperation with the North.
Ageing Voters
The professor of presidential studies said ageing voters and what he calls ``the grand strategy" are two critical factors that will determine the results of the presidential election.
``The two elements of low voter turnout of the young generation in their 20s and 30s and demographic changes created a very different campaign environment from previous presidential elections,'' he said.
Hahm shared the key ideas of his article to be presented to 200 members of the 21st Century Top Management Club Wednesday.
The session will take place on Jeju Island and the audience are decision-makers, high-ranking government officials, economists and business leaders.
According to him, if the same voter turnout of 2002 is applied, the projected ratios of voters in their 20s and 30s and those aged over 50s are almost same this year.
Demographic changes are behind the shift.
In 2002, the number of voters in their 20s and 30s accounted for 49.8 percent of total eligible voters, and the ratio of voters over 50 was 27.3 percent.
The voter turnout of young voters was as low as 60 percent, while that of older voters stood as high as 80 percent.
The fact that the population of young voters was almost 20 percentage points higher than that of the older generation in 2002 had a significant impact on the election results.
The campaign environment of the 2002 presidential election was in favor of the candidate who enjoyed high popularity among young voters.
Hahm said this phenomenon is not likely to be repeated in the 2007 election.
Significant demographic changes have occurred in the past five years.
In 2007, the young voters account for 43.1 percent of the total, which is a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from 2002.
The ratio of voters aged over 50s, however, went up to 34 percent, an increase of 6.7 percentage points from the last presidential election.
All in all, 13.4 percentage points in demographic change have taken place over the past five years.
``Let's suppose that the same voter turnout occurs in the 2007 election. In other words, 60 percent of voter turnout is expected among the young voters and 80 percent of voter turnout will occur among the older voters,'' he said. ``If we do the math based on the projection, we can get the result saying that the ratios of these two groups become almost the same.''
In other words, the distinctive characteristic of this year's presidential election is that voting behavior of older generation is as important as that of young voters.
The double-digit changes _ 13.4 percentage points _ in demographic aspect is expected to have a considerable impact on the overall election results.
One of the possible scenarios is that the effects of the Internet and politicians' fan clubs are less likely to play a critical role in the election. The influence of young Internet users will be relatively reduced, as voters get older.
Given that the young voters are active Internet users, their voting behavior in the 2002 election was significant.
However, the ageing voter factor indicates that young voters' impact of online campaigning activities will be largely reduced in the upcoming election.
``In this context, the impact of candlelight protests and other online-based campaigning activities will not be considered so important as they were in 2002. This is the case of politicians' fan clubs, too,'' Hahm said.
Grand Strategy
His analysis gives crucial tips to the presidential contenders in their mapping out of presidential campaign strategies _ they should woo the young voters but do not need to go too far.
The political scientist gave a piece of wisdom to presidential contenders, advising that who will become the winner of the upcoming presidential election is a matter of grand strategy.
``December's election will be a story of who can effectively characterize the nature of the challenges the country faces in an era of globalization and with what options they can turn them into opportunities,'' Hahm said.
He went on that it was the slogan of democratization that helped two former presidents, Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung, weather a variety of storms in the 1992 and 1997 presidential elections, respectively.
A variety of ill-grounded accusations and fraudulent charges are a rite of passage for the contenders to get through in the campaigning to get the top job.
The two winners were able to survive the tough campaign, largely because they held onto the grand strategy of democratization that he called visions.
According to him, the country has three different versions of the grand strategy so far since 1945.
Between 1945 and 1960s, the overriding slogan was nation-state building. And the strategy in the following decades was industrialization. Democratization was considered an effective vision in the 1990s.
``Unfortunately, I haven't seen any hopefuls who successfully presented a big picture so far. Neither the in-land waterway nor the ferry projects is the vision that I meant with the grand strategy,'' he said.
If they have a clear vision and working grand strategy, it will help them weather any storms in the campaign season and survive the tough qualification screening, he said.
Hahm said the topic of qualification screening of presidential hopefuls will be different depending on who will win the Grand National Party (GNP) primaries.
Political parties and presidential hopefuls have put the career and wealth of presidential hopefuls under the microscope after they declared their bid for the presidency.
To date, the target of the qualification screening is becoming two-fold: Is the politician qualified for the top decision-maker position; and is the person in question trustable and reliable for the public to give mandate of management of the country.
So far the screening is heavily focused on the second part featuring if there were any illicit or dubious activities in the property acquiring process of leading presidential contender Lee Myung-bak of the main opposition GNP.
Hahm said even more intense scrutiny will be made over the property of the leading candidate, if Lee, a former Seoul mayor, becomes the GNP nominee.
The topic of qualification screening will take a different form if his rival Park Geun-hye wins the primaries.
If Park, a former GNP chairwoman, wins, she will have to deal with demanding calls on her late father's negative political legacy. She is the eldest daughter of the late President Park Chung-hee.
Hahm predicted that the presidential campaign would turn into a head-to-head race between the GNP nominee and that of the liberal camp.
hkang@koreatimes.co.kr
