By Oh Young-jin
More often than not, North Korea has proved to be a habitual, pathological liar, so much so that, even in a rare event it doesn't lie, other nations would take it as a lie in a knee-jerk reaction. Remember the boy who cried wolf in an Aesop fable.
During his tour of a site commemorating his "revolutionary" progeny Thursday, the North's young dictator, Kim Jong-un, indicated that his country has developed a hydrogen bomb. Experts immediately called its bluff.
A government official said that Pyongyang doesn't have technologies required to develop such a bomb, also called thermonuclear bomb, which is many times more destructive than atomic bombs, dismissing Kim's remark as nothing more than "figure of speech."
Still, Kim's claim needs looking at with gravity from two aspects: its ongoing attempt to win an internationally recognized status as nuclear weapon state and lack of an effective way to thwart the rogue state's such effort.
The H-bomb news came amid signs the North going all-out in finessing its nuclear arsenal. First, it is openly trying to develop SLBMs or submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Although the success of its tests is strongly disputed, some predict that it may take two or three years to complete them for deployment. Only big powers have succeeded in the SLBM development because it requires complicated technology, for instance, for "cold launch" involving hurtling a missile out of water to get on a trajectory to a designated target.
Second, the North has been for the past four years devoting lots of national resources to the miniaturization of nuclear warheads for rockets that are becoming increasingly powerful and sophisticated. It has conducted three underground nuclear tests with more signs that a fourth is being prepared. The Unha-3 rocket, fired in December 2012, was evaluated to fly a payload of 500 to 600 kg over a distance of over 10,000km, being capable of hitting the U.S. West Coast. Its new KN-08, which was publicly displayed in April and October, is believed to have an extended range of 12,000km or longer.
If these developments are put in a longer timeframe, say 30 to 40 years, one could see a distinct pattern and fathom its intention with a degree of clarity. The North's missile program started humbly as its scientists learned basics by taking Soviet-made Scud missiles part and reassembling them in a primitive reverse engineering method much like the South did with Toshiba transistor radios.
Underlying the North's nuclear and missile programs is the fact that it is a dynasty in which leaders earn their legitimacy by the degree of their adherence to the will of their predecessors. Kim Jong-il, the father of the current leader, dreamt that his bankrupt kingdom would be strong with nuclear weapons and missiles to go head to head with the U.S. Don't forget the Phyongchon Revolutionary Site, where Kim talked about the H-bomb, was the first weapon factory to be set up in 1945. Three years later or two years prior to the start of the 1950-53 Korean War, his grandfather and founder of the country, Kim Il-sung, visited and demonstrated the test-firing of a machine gun manufactured there.
All told, the North wouldn't give up its unconventional weapons because to them, they are the only guarantee to survival, using them as a tool to blackmail its neighbors for handouts as well. By this standard, it would be more believable that the North is intended to do so, if it doesn't have a hydrogen bomb now.
This is why there arises a need to see the North from a more alarmist' point of view as we device plans to unwind the North Korean challenge, its brinkmanship included. We can start by thinking ahead of what to do, if the North pushes ahead for the H-bomb development. Would we continue to take this rogue as a nuisance and ignore it, while bickering over the nonstarter Six-Party talks? Or could we give the gravity to the problem and confront it so as to solve it once and for all? It's time U.S., China and Japan as well as South Korea to act on the North Korean problem. Remember not just the boy but also villagers ended as suckers in the Aesop tale.
More often than not, North Korea has proved to be a habitual, pathological liar, so much so that, even in a rare event it doesn't lie, other nations would take it as a lie in a knee-jerk reaction. Remember the boy who cried wolf in an Aesop fable.
During his tour of a site commemorating his "revolutionary" progeny Thursday, the North's young dictator, Kim Jong-un, indicated that his country has developed a hydrogen bomb. Experts immediately called its bluff.
A government official said that Pyongyang doesn't have technologies required to develop such a bomb, also called thermonuclear bomb, which is many times more destructive than atomic bombs, dismissing Kim's remark as nothing more than "figure of speech."
Still, Kim's claim needs looking at with gravity from two aspects: its ongoing attempt to win an internationally recognized status as nuclear weapon state and lack of an effective way to thwart the rogue state's such effort.
The H-bomb news came amid signs the North going all-out in finessing its nuclear arsenal. First, it is openly trying to develop SLBMs or submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Although the success of its tests is strongly disputed, some predict that it may take two or three years to complete them for deployment. Only big powers have succeeded in the SLBM development because it requires complicated technology, for instance, for "cold launch" involving hurtling a missile out of water to get on a trajectory to a designated target.
Second, the North has been for the past four years devoting lots of national resources to the miniaturization of nuclear warheads for rockets that are becoming increasingly powerful and sophisticated. It has conducted three underground nuclear tests with more signs that a fourth is being prepared. The Unha-3 rocket, fired in December 2012, was evaluated to fly a payload of 500 to 600 kg over a distance of over 10,000km, being capable of hitting the U.S. West Coast. Its new KN-08, which was publicly displayed in April and October, is believed to have an extended range of 12,000km or longer.
If these developments are put in a longer timeframe, say 30 to 40 years, one could see a distinct pattern and fathom its intention with a degree of clarity. The North's missile program started humbly as its scientists learned basics by taking Soviet-made Scud missiles part and reassembling them in a primitive reverse engineering method much like the South did with Toshiba transistor radios.
Underlying the North's nuclear and missile programs is the fact that it is a dynasty in which leaders earn their legitimacy by the degree of their adherence to the will of their predecessors. Kim Jong-il, the father of the current leader, dreamt that his bankrupt kingdom would be strong with nuclear weapons and missiles to go head to head with the U.S. Don't forget the Phyongchon Revolutionary Site, where Kim talked about the H-bomb, was the first weapon factory to be set up in 1945. Three years later or two years prior to the start of the 1950-53 Korean War, his grandfather and founder of the country, Kim Il-sung, visited and demonstrated the test-firing of a machine gun manufactured there.
All told, the North wouldn't give up its unconventional weapons because to them, they are the only guarantee to survival, using them as a tool to blackmail its neighbors for handouts as well. By this standard, it would be more believable that the North is intended to do so, if it doesn't have a hydrogen bomb now.
This is why there arises a need to see the North from a more alarmist' point of view as we device plans to unwind the North Korean challenge, its brinkmanship included. We can start by thinking ahead of what to do, if the North pushes ahead for the H-bomb development. Would we continue to take this rogue as a nuisance and ignore it, while bickering over the nonstarter Six-Party talks? Or could we give the gravity to the problem and confront it so as to solve it once and for all? It's time U.S., China and Japan as well as South Korea to act on the North Korean problem. Remember not just the boy but also villagers ended as suckers in the Aesop tale.
