ed US Secretary of State eases inter-Korean tension

By Lee Chang-sup

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to Korea last week was timely. One day before his visit to Seoul, President Park Geun-hye proposed a dialogue with North Korea, something it initially rejected.

During his four-day visit to East Asia aimed at diffusing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, Kerry proposed multilateral or bilateral negotiations with North Korea, whichever it prefers. His proposal must have been encouraging for North Korea, which has long wanted to negotiate with Washington.

During their meeting in Seoul, President Park and Kerry said their countries could work to develop a more flexible approach to North Korea. President Park emphasized a dialogue or “trustpolitik.” This would be a major turnaround from former President Lee Myung-bak’s hard-line policy.

In China, Kerry also seemed to have gained some valuable insights on ways to ease tension on the Korean Peninsula although he could not get assurance from China that it would press North Korea to behave itself. According to former U.S. Ambassador to Korea Donald Gregg, Kerry believes Washington and China can also work closely in dealing with North Korea.

This is because the U.S. and China share much in common. First, neither wants North Korea to become a full-blown nuclear power, which would stir pro-nuclear individuals and groups in South Korea and Japan. Second, neither wants any sort of military conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Finally, President Barack Obama’s policy for North Korea does not push for a regime change, contrary to what many American neoconservatives lead the public to believe.

In Japan, Kerry reassured nervous leaders that the U.S. would defend its allies, including South Korea and Japan, against potential attack by North Korea. However, he also told Japanese leaders Washington was willing to talk sincerely with Pyongyang.

Japan has always been nervous about anything potentially hostile flying over its territory. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has said his first target in a war would be Japan. This is no surprise because North Korea-Japan tensions run deep, particularly after Pyongyang apologized in 2002 for previous abductions of Japanese citizens, but got nothing out of it. Thus, North Korea is likely to continue being hostile to Japan.

North Korea has enough reasons to trust Kerry. Although he fought in the Vietnam War, he had the courage to speak out against it later. Basically, Kerry is noted for being a dove than a hawk. Pyongyang leaders should realize that Kerry has the credentials to be a truly significant U.S. Secretary of State because of his long experience as a senator and his presidential candidacy.

Further, Kerry’s statements on North Korea have been consistent and accommodating. He appears to know what North Korean leaders want and do not want and tries to understand what provokes the North.

Kerry was flexible enough in setting conditions for resuming talks. He suggested sending an envoy to Pyongyang before North Korea comes to the table. Gregg believes Kerry made “the most positive comment any senior American government official has made about talking with North Korea since the end of the Clinton Administration in 2000.” According to professor Moon Chung-in of Yonsei University, President Clinton’s visit to Pyongyang in 2000 might have led to the North’s denuclearization and a peace treaty involving the two Koreas and the United States.

Kerry’s efforts seem to be working. North Korea has not launched a missile since his visit to Seoul and has not closed the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, a joint inter-Korean industrial complex just north of the Demilitarized Zone.

In March, 2012 Kerry also met a North Korean delegation, led by Ri Yong-ho and Choe Son-hui during which the parties talked about Kerry visiting Pyongyang. However, his visit was cancelled when North Korea launched a missile on April 13 last year, two days ahead of the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung’s birth.

Nevertheless, the North should remain open for a dialogue because doing so would benefit its people. Korea Times columnist Chang Se-moon believes the North would receive massive aid once Pyongyang commits to denuclearize. For example, South Korea could build joint industrial complexes in every North Korean province, hiring at least one million North Korean workers. It also could set up a food bank in every county in North Korea.

South Korea could assist the North in other aspects of development, such as education; for example, Seoul could provide laptops to schools. Chang believes peaceful negotiations would benefit the average North Korean. He points out that the cost of negotiating with and providing aid to the North would be small compared to the casualties of war.

North Korea should realize that negotiations would benefit everyone there. In contrast, refusing to negotiate will make its people dissatisfied and place its leaders in a bind.

It is premature to say whether the two Koreas, with support from the U.S. and China, will restart engagement. Neoconservatives in Seoul and Washington say the allies should avoid falling again for North Korea’s tactics to extort massive aid. However, Kerry must persuade these neoconservatives otherwise.

Kerry’s visit has stopped the perfect storm that could have led to another Korean war. A summit between Presidents Park and Obama in Washington May 7 is likely to be a major turning point in inter-Korean relations.

Lee Chang-sup is the executive managing director of The Korea Times. Contact him at editorial@koreatimes.co.kr.