Will China block unification?

By Jason Lim

Will China block an eventual Korean unification? That was the question explored by the U.S. Senate Republican staff members recently in a report primarily drafted by Keith Luse, a long-time senior aide to the recently retired Senator Richard Lugar and an East Asian expert. And the answer is, ``Yes.”

The report points out two major reasons for China’s opposition to Korean unification.

One, China has historical claims to parts of North and South Korean territory. The Northeast Project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is a prime case in point, as many in Korea see this supposed academic research project as a thinly veiled attempt by the Chinese to justify a potential history grab from Goguryeo and Balhae and any attendant land claims.

In other words, if the Northeast Project can academically ``prove” that Goguryeo and Balhae were really offshoots of the larger Chinese nation, then it stands to reason that the historical, cultural, and territorial legacy of these two ancient nations belong to modern China, not Korea.

Two, China values the current status quo so much ― with North Korea serving as a friendly and economically dependent buffer state between China and the U.S. ― that it would oppose any unification formula that would have a unified, pro-American Korean nation on its doorstep.

This means that it’s very possible that China ― if and when faced with a situation that might lead to an implosion of the current North Korean system ― might take steps that would prevent South Korea from claiming sovereignty over North Korean territory and people. And with the North currently so dependent on China for its survival, China would already have the capacity and leverage to enforce any scenario that it might see fit to safeguard her own national interest.

And once China has effective control over the North Korean territory, that’s when the Northeast Project will bear its intended fruit by providing the academic justification for incorporating the North into the larger Chinese nation.

At this point, there would be nothing that South Korea could do to stop China. Sure, it could hem and haw and protest to the United Nations, but we all know that possession is nine-tenths of the law. South Korea surely won’t have the political will or military might to invade China to take back North Korean territory.

And here is a radical thought. Chinese usurpation of North Korea is probably the best option for South Korea in political and economic terms. I mean South Korea would save the trillions of dollars that it would cost for unification, get rid of the existential threat from North Korean nukes and missiles, and have access to an expanded Chinese market. All without getting their hands dirty. What’s not to like? And all South Korea needs to do is accept that North Korea would now be Chinese Manchuria.

Some might say that such a scenario would be impossible, that a Korean nation and people would never lose their historical identity and allow themselves to be absorbed into China.

But national identity is not carved in stone. It’s a matter of indoctrination to a certain set of ethnic and cultural narratives that everyone else in a group shares. As such, it can be flexible and inclusive as situation demands. In other words, there is no objective history per se. And narratives can be rewritten.

Further, if you are a North Korean starving to death and someone offers you a bowl of rice, then you will swear fealty to whatever nation, culture, or history and speak whatever language that your benefactor wants you to. And you would rightfully thank him for it. And if your children are taught about the Northeast Project’s version of history ever since they are old enough to understand, then they will be Chinese in no time. Assimilation won’t even take several generations; two would do fine.

What I am trying to point out is that the report paints a very real scenario. Korean leadership is so wedded to the belief that the two Koreas will somehow be magically unified somewhere down the road that they don’t feel threatened when other possibilities creep up.

Well, it’s time to wake up. This report now entertains a very different narrative on what may happen, a narrative that’s becoming more and more in tune with what’s happening on the ground. If South Korean leadership wants to safeguard their vision of a Unified Korea, then they have to fight to keep that as the primary narrative that drives any geopolitical discussion on Northeast Asia, both domestically and internationally.

This means doing everything to outmaneuver other competing narratives and nurturing an environment where the Korean version of the unification narrative provides the only viable framework for peace and prosperity in the region. Otherwise, start getting used to the idea that South Korea will be the extent of an eventual unified Korea.

Jason Lim is a Washington, D.C., based expert on innovation, engagement and organizational culture. He has been writing for The Korea Times since 2006. He can be reached at jasonlim@msn.com, facebook/jasonlim2000 and @jasonlim2012.