North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s dispatch of a top military official to China on Wednesday raised hopes that significant changes could take place on the Korean Peninsula. Choe Ryong-hae, director of the General Political Bureau of the (North) Korean People’s Army, is the first special envoy sent to China by Pyongyang since the young leader took power after the sudden death of his father, Kim Jong-il, in December 2011.
Choe’s trip is attracting keen attention at a time when North Korea-China relations are strained following a series of provocative actions by Pyongyang, including the launch of long-range rockets and the detonation of a third nuclear device.
The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) didn’t elaborate on details of Choe’s visit or his itinerary other than saying he was sent by Kim. Hopefully, the envoy’s trip will serve as an occasion to normalize the extremely tense situation on the Korean Peninsula that arose due to bellicose rhetoric from the North in recent months. Furthermore, we hope that the two Koreas will find a breakthrough in their deadlocked relations.
Given that Choe, a close confidant of the North Korean leader, is Kim’s most senior envoy, Pyongyang is expected to try to mend its strained ties with Beijing and convey some sort of ``message’’ to China’s new leader Xi Jinping. More than anything, the impoverished nation is expected to explain its belligerent acts and ask for Beijing’s understanding.
Simultaneously, Choe is expected to look for China’s help in Pyongyang’s push for nuclear armament and economic development. What is drawing our attention is whether Choe will express willingness to improve relations with the South where a more moderate new administration has been launched.
Upon hearing Pyongyang’s unusually quick announcement about Choe’s trip, analysts in Seoul said it might be a North Korean attempt to emerge from international isolation. It’s encouraging to hear that China might have accepted North Korea’s offer to send a special envoy after being guaranteed there would be no more provocations on the part of the Stalinist regime.
This may be premature, but our hope is that the peninsula will see a virtuous circle of positive development, the resumption of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and Seoul’s aid in accordance with President Park Geun-hye’s trust-building process. The environment for this is ripe, given the U.S.-China summit in early June and the Seoul-Beijing summit in late June.
Of course, it’s too rash to expect the dispatch to pave the way for inter-Korean dialogue right away. Nonetheless, Choe’s visit can create momentum for the two Koreas to change the situation on the peninsula. There is no doubt that the North’s nuclear arsenal is the most serious stumbling block, but haste makes waste. Park and her administration need to be patient and flexible in dealing with the North’s nuclear weapons.