The Gaeseong Industrial Complex, the biggest and last remaining symbol of inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation, is in danger of collapse. As have been the cases with most incidents between the two Koreas, the North picked on the South for few good reasons, and the latter’s reaction fell somewhat short of appearing composed and cool-headed, either.
Both sides should have a cooling-off period and think how to salvage their relationship, which went from bad to worse over the past five years. If the Koreas fail to restart the joint factory park in the next couple of months, the divided peninsula will enter into another long, dark phase.
Game theorists regard the ongoing impasse as a result of the war-of-nerves between the two new leaders of both halves of the peninsula to take the upper hand in their relationship over the next five years. Such an analysis may have some points, but the 10-year-old industrial park is too important to be reduced to the target of a reconnoitering skirmish between leaders and their governments.
North Korea made a grave mistake in 2009 by brushing away the olive branch offered by newly-elected U.S. President Barack Obama. The communist regime is repeating the same blunder by refusing to give a chance to President Park Geun-hye’s “trustpolitik” even without trying to know what it means.
Pyongyang might have its own reasons to feel annoyed with Washington and Seoul for the allies’ “strategic patience” marked by willful ignoring and an economic blockade. But the time has long passed for the recalcitrant regime to realize the rest of the world, even including its main ally China, has been tired of its bad temper and diplomatic brinkmanship.
South Korea’s dilemma stems from its limitation to neither completely ignore the wayward regime nor appease its each and every whim.
President Park may be right to draw a red line and deal with Pyongyang’s provocations case by case. Park appears set not to appeal for the reopening of the factory park unless the North changes its attitude. That is the stance of a strong, determined leader, which will win the approval of many people, especially her conservative supporters. The only problem with such disciplined approach is it would solidify, not solve, the deadlock further, as shown by former President Lee Myung-bak throughout his tenure.
Recent history shows both Koreas need more flexible, understanding leaders than rigid, principled ones.
President Park has vowed she would never “ladle out” economic aid to North Korea to buy peace, as her liberal predecessors did. When it comes to the Gaeseong complex, however, North Korea can hardly be said to be a unilateral beneficiary, as the two sides evenly shared its gains. On a broader scale, too, South Korea’s economic aid to the North over the past two years stood at about 123 billion won ($110 million) a year, one fifth of the annual aid of $600 million provided by former West Germany to East Germany, and only 6.5 percent of the 1.9 trillion won in Seoul’s official development aid to developing countries in 2012.
The road to peaceful unification is long and turbulent. Koreas have not even begun the journey yet.