By Tong Kim
Of the two major news developments last week ― Jimmy Carter’s visit to the North and the outcome of the by-elections in the South ― I choose the latter to write about, as significant implications arise for the 2012 presidential elections that will influence the fate of the Korean Peninsula.
Before discussing South Korean politics, I would make a simple comment on the former American President’s persistent effort to contribute to the resolution of the problems involving North Korea. While his well-intended conveyance of Kim Jong-il’s message was unwelcomed and downplayed as nothing new or not good enough, Carter did add to the current atmosphere of talking the talk with the North.
Speaking of Korean politics, the opposition candidates’ victories in three of the four major by-elections have reinforced the proposition that the opposition political forces, if united and compete on a one-on-one basis, can defeat the governing Grand National Party (GNP) in the general elections for the National Assembly and the presidential election in 2012.
The outcome of the by-elections also served as an urgent wake-up call to the GNP, which now faces an ominous prospect of defeat in 2012. The resignation of the GNP chairman and the dissolution of the party’s decision-making Supreme Committees are to be followed by a Cabinet reshuffle and replacing some of the presidential secretaries at the Blue House. The GNP knows it cannot keep its ruling status unless the government and the party do things differently from now.
In particular, Democratic Party (DP) Chairman Sohn Hak-kyu’s hard-won victory in a suburban middle class district instantly made him a leading presidential contender for the opposition camp. The support rate for his presidential candidacy jumped 5-7 points to 13-14.9 percent, only trailing former GNP chairperson Park Geun-hye, who still leads in the polls with 29-34 percent.
Sohn was the biggest winner of the by-elections. He successfully risked the fate of his political life. He deserves credit for making the bold decision to plunge into a tough battle and winning it in ``enemy territory.” However, his success arises greatly from voters’ dissatisfaction with the government. Major elections are often about the incumbent president, and the beauty of democracy is that people can change their leader if they do not like him.
According to a recent poll, 44.8 percent of the respondents said they would vote for an opposition presidential candidate in 2012 and only 33.6 percent for a governing party candidate. Alarmed GNP members are voicing their complaints against President Lee Myung-bak: ``President Lee’s lame-duck syndrome has begun with the defeat in the April 27 by-elections, his hard work is not enough,” (Kim Hyeong-o). ``We should not follow the whistle of the Blue House,” (Kim Sung-shik). ``Presidential approval rates between 40 – 50 percent were proven to be fiction as a result of the by-election,” (Kwon Young-jin). ``The GNP is on the verge of collapse, its life cycle of effectiveness has run out, and we should build a new conservative party under a new name to solidify all conservatives,” (Jon Yeo-ok).
The GNP’s potential presidential contenders such as former party chairman Chung Mong-joon, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, and Gyeonggi Governor Kim Moon-soo are chasing Park Geun-hye from too far behind to seriously compete with her in the party’s nomination contest next year. There will be no breathtaking primary competition such as the one between Park and Lee Myung-bak in 2007.
In the meantime, arch-conservative Liberty Forward Party Chairman Lee Hoi-chang calls for a united coalition of all conservative forces to compete with the emerging progressive coalition. President Lee has been accused by ultra-rightists of being too soft on North Korea and betraying conservatism by his rhetoric of ``pragmatic centrism.”
In the opposition camp, the result of the by-elections have revitalized the discussion of consolidating all democratic/progressive parties into a single entity that should be able to nominate and support single candidates for the 2012 elections. The DP is scheduled to hold its party convention in December and ideally, could complete the process of integration by September, two months ahead of electing the next chairman.
The defeat of a unified opposition candidate in Gimhae, and the bitter negotiation to settle over a unified candidate between the DP and the People’s Participatory Party, have revealed the limits of efficacy of single candidacy. Now with the image of a party-crasher, it would be almost impossible for Yoo Shi-min, head of the PPP, to come back as a serious presidential contender, albeit his support rate stands between 7–11 percent.
Yoo is known to have stubbornly insisted on having a member of his own party run in the Gimhae electorate, but his candidate lost. Yoo also failed in the last gubernatorial election for Gyeonggi Province as a unified opposition candidate after the DP withdrew its own nomination, former vice minister of economic planning Kim Jin-pyo, who seemed to have had a better change.
Ordinary politicians are normally more interested in obtaining party nominations for elections to the national legislature than in supporting a presidential candidate. Since the major parities do not allow the same person to be party chairmen and presidential candidates at the same time, the National Assembly members would be more interested in the election of their next party chairman, who would decide the candidates for the next general elections.
Now some GNP members are talking about changing the party rules in their July convention in order to allow Park Geun-hye to run for both the chairmanship and the presidential candidacy. If this happens, Park would have firm control of the GNP, but many of the pro-Lee Myung-bak faction would feel uncomfortable about their future and they would not support such a change of the rules.
As for opposition integration, Sohn Hak-kyu prefers a gradual approach: first to reunite with the PPP, and then merge with the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) and other progressive parties. If this does not work, he would look to produce a unified opposition candidate as a minimum. Sohn has a long way to go to capture the candidacy of the DP or a newly consolidated party, or the single candidacy of all opposition parties in coalition.
Sohn has to refine his platform beyond the rhetoric of ``regime change and national integration.” He will have to start spelling out how he can resolve the economic and social discontent of the people. There is no assurance that public discontent with the incumbent government would reach a level where the people would vote against a GNP candidate regardless of an opposition candidate’s own merit in 2012.
One opposition presidential aspirant who seems to have a clear agenda with respect to how to change public policy is former opposition party chairman Chung Dong-young. He has been a champion of a ``universal welfare state and a peace regime in the Korean Peninsula.” He is an advocate for the total integration of all opposition parties to fight one-on-one with a GNP candidate in 2012. However, it would not be easy to find a formula of sharing interests and an ideological balance among all the progressive parties. The challenge is how to divide the potential seats of the National Assembly among different factions that will exist under an integrated party system.
If the opposition camp really wants to win the next presidency, it would be necessary to launch a transparent process of screening potential candidates and eventually narrowing down to select the two most competitive contenders to determine who has a better chance for the big election in 2012. Such a contest will be about leadership, creativity, philosophical ideology and vision.
In the governing camp, no potential candidate seems to be stronger than Park Geun-hye at this time. Park’s task is to unite the GNP between the pro-Lee faction and hers as well as demonstrate leadership to rebuild the party’s support bases, while minimizing the negative perception of the Lee government. What’s your take?
Tong Kim is a research professor with the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He can be reached at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.