By Tong Kim
Ten days from today on April 27, South Korea will hold by-elections to choose three new members for the national legislature, one provincial governor and several lesser administrative officials including chiefs for six gun (county) and gu (municipal district).
Results from these elections may suggest how the two big elections for 2012 ― for the National Assembly in April and the presidency in December ― will be contested between the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) on the one side and the opposition parties on the other side, including the Democratic Party (DP), the Democratic Labor Party (DLP), the New Progressive Party (NPP) and the People’s Participatory Party (PPP).
Of the several by-elections, competitions in Bundang, Gimhae, and Gangwon Province are being watched with particular interest, as they are fought on a one-on-one basis between GNP candidates and ``unified candidates” representing all the opposition parties. In Bundang known as a GNP support base, the race between DP leader Sohn Hak-kyu, a former governor of Gyeonggi Province and a presidential aspirant, and former GNP leader Kang Jae-sup, appears to be too close to call. But by last week, Sohn was leading Kang in polls.
Although most voters in local by-elections focus on who would bring the most benefits to their districts, the issue for Bundang this time is big politics, which Kang called ``the final battle” for 2012. In a sense, it will resemble a vote of confidence for the Lee Myung-bak administration. If the GNP loses, it would signal a red flag for the GNP preparing for the next big elections, and a warning that it would be risky to run on the administration’s performance. If Sohn fails, it would diminish, possibly fatally, his chance to become a unified, single opposition candidate in the presidential election.
Gimhae is former President Roh Moo-hyon’s hometown and a part of the region that traditionally supports the GNP, whose candidate is now trailing behind the PPP candidate. GNP candidate Kim Tae-ho, a former governor of Gyeongsang South Province and an unsuccessful nominee for Prime Minister, is running against PPP candidate Lee Bong-su, a former special assistant to the late president Roh. The PPP was formed last year by its leader Yu Shi-min, one of Roh’s closest associates. Beyond the issues of local interests to the constituents, the Gimhae race is expected to reflect the residual influence of Roh Moo-hyun.
In Gangwon Province, the opposition parties’ unified candidate Choi Moon-soon of the DP is chasing GNP candidate Ohm Ki-young from behind. Both candidates are natives of Gangwon Province and both were the presidents of the MBC news organization. They are competing for the gubernatorial position vacated by a DP governor Lee Gwang-jae, another former associate of Roh Moo-hyon. The DP is rendering all its support for its candidate Choi.
DP leader Sohn has opted for campaigning alone in Bundang, and so has the GNP’s Kim Tae-ho in Gimhae. Sohn and Kim are relying on the voters’ recognition of their names and their background. The GNP is pouring all its support for its candidates for Bundang and Gangwon Province.
On local issues, President Lee’s abandonment of his 2007 campaign pledge to build a large international airport for the Southeastern region and the negative impact of the Fukushima meltdown on the GNP’s support for building a new atomic power plant in Gangwon Province are working against the GNP candidates, who yet persuasively insist that they can bring more financial and development support from the central government.
In a third National Assembly by-election in Suncheon, which is part of the traditional DP power base, the DLP’s candidate is competing with several maverick challengers. The DP chose not to have its own candidate on the condition that DLP would not compete with the DP in the other districts. The GNP, with no chance of winning, did not present a candidate of its own.
As in countries like China, the United States and Russia, 2012 will be a year of power transition in South Korea. Even in North Korea, Kim Jong-un may assume a more defining leadership role, as it marks the 100th anniversary of its founder Kim Il-sung’s birthday, the year when Pyongyang has pronounced to enter the threshold of a ``great strong and prosperous nation.”
For the big picture of 2012 for South Korea, it is likely that a presidential election will he held under the current constitution for a new five-year term. A constitutional revision to curb presidential power and to change the current power structure, as pursued by President Lee and the GNP, is too problematic, too controversial and too late to pass during the remainder of Lee’s term in office.
From the GNP, Park Geun-hay is clearly the front-runner and the best hope for 2012. Her challengers from within the GNP have yet to show enough political strength to compete with her. Opposition to her candidacy based on unpleasant experiences or factional struggles won’t stop her. Nor is likely that the pro-Lee Myung-bak faction will be able to expel her from the GNP. President Lee and his advisors know their political maneuverings to undermine Park’s status have failed. One of Park’s merits, recognized by the public, is her obstinate adherence to principles of keeping promises and observing the existing rules even at the pragmatic cost of resources.
However, there are enough challengers, actual and potential from pro-GNP circles, to her presidential candidacy, including Chung Mong-joon, another former GNP leader; Chung Un-chan, a former Prime Minister; and even Lee Jae-oh, President Lee’s confidant and a cabinet minister for special affairs. Kim Tae-ho has been ruled out as a potential presidential hopeful since he botched his confirmation hearing for Prime Minister. A clear advantage for the GNP lies in the fact that it is easier to defend and retain the reins of power than for the opposition to take it from the defender.
For the opposition camp, Sohn Hak-kyu’s chance for DP nomination is very much dependant on whether he succeeds in Bundang. Among his intra-party challengers, Chung Dong-young, the DP’s 2007 presidential candidate and a former unification minister, would be the most menacing threat to Sohn. Chung is the DP’s leading policy advocate for enhanced welfare programs and improved inter-Korean relations. Chung has a comparative advantage in ability to articulate and politicize issues over Sohn, who stands for replacing the GNP but without a clear platform.
It is common sense that the DP or any other opposition party would stand no chance to defeat the GNP, unless they all are united behind a single, unified candidate with the support of reform-minded civil organizations. Aggregation of support for all the ``democratic and progressive” parties numerically would be comparable to, if not surpassing the support for the GNP. But, this would not automatically guarantee the opposition’s capturing of the presidency in 2012.
Talk of integrating all the opposition parties into one party before the big elections next year is unrealistic and unachievable, given discernable discords in terms of each party’s interest and ideology. Yet, it is possible to realign the opposition parties into two main groups: DP as the largest opposition party and an integration of DLP, NPP, and PPP, which share similar platforms. Under such a revised political map, it would be easier to select a single candidate through negotiation and by an agreed rule of open competition, which commonly includes public polls.
The April 27 by-elections are a prelude to the 2012 elections that will determine whether to continue the current government policy for economic growth, increased global roles, and a hard line posture against the North or to shift toward providing shared economic opportunities and benefits to the low- and mid-income people and proactively engaging the North for peaceful coexistence. The opposition’s best chance comes when the incumbent government totally fails to the anger of the voters. There are few indications that this will be the case in 2012, although there have been several major stumbles on the part of the Lee government. What’s your take?
Tong Kim is a research professor with the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He can be reached at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.