Rocket or missile

By Tong Kim

North Korea says it will launch another three-stage rocket between December 10 and 17 to put a “practical satellite” into orbit. The United States and its allies condemn such a launch as “provocative,” as it uses the same ballistic missile technology that is prohibited for use by the North under U.N. Security Council resolution 1874.

The problem is that the North is not fazed by international law or international pressure, and it is most likely to go ahead and launch its satellite as planned. North Korea very well understands why the international community is concerned about their rocket launches: the same rocket could be developed as a delivery system for nuclear warheads.

For the North, missile and nuclear development has been a part of its survival strategy to protect itself from the ever-enhancing South Korean economic and military power, backed by the robust alliance with the United States. It is hard for Pyongyang to believe that it would be better off without missiles or nuclear weapons, as it is told by Washington.

No country that may have influence over the North, including China, has been successful in stopping the North from conducting a rocket launch after Pyongyang made an announcement. The North does it, knowing it would be further condemned and there would be more sanctions. There is no effective political or economic sanction that can work without China’s full cooperation. China will not cooperate fully this time either.

North Korea’s last launch of a similar rocket was on April 16, 2012 in celebration of the centennial birthday of its founder Kim Il-sung but it disintegrated 90 seconds after liftoff. That was a third unsuccessful satellite launch since August 1998, which Pyongyang exceptionally admitted was a failure.

Following the failed April attempt, analysts had predicted that the North would conduct a third nuclear test or another rocket launch to make up for the embarrassing loss of face. However, North Korea betrayed such predictions probably in consideration of the U.S. presidential election, for Pyongyang might not have wanted to cause trouble for Barack Obama, seen as a lesser evil than Mitt Romney.

Pyongyang may launch a missile on Dec. 17, marking the first anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s death, to promote the North as “a strong and prosperous country” which the deceased leader had promised by 2012 with nuclear weapons and missiles. There are a few other thoughts with respect to why the North Koreans are launching another rocket in this time frame.

Internally, Kim Jong-un is still consolidating his power base by realigning the top tier of leaders with younger and newer faces loyal to him. A successful satellite launch would be a unifying morale booster for his leadership, a demonstration of fulfilling his father’s deathbed wish for the continuation of a “military-first policy.”

In the South, it is not sure which presidential candidate ― Park Geun-hye of the ruling Saenuri Party or Moon Jae-in of the Democratic United Party ― would be hurt by the scheduled rocket launch. The aftermath of the North Korean attack on the South Korean warship the Cheonan helped the opposition party in the subsequent local elections. The opposition candidates had then alleged that the government’s hard-line policy triggered the provocation.

The timing of a rocket launch comes just before South Korea’s presidential election. In 1987, North Korea’s bombing of a Korean airplane helped the election of the governing conservative party’s candidate. This year both major candidates are making campaign pledges to work more positively with the North. Another rocket launch would certainly complicate the process of dealing with the North, no matter who wins the election in the South.

The North Koreans definitely prefer Moon over Park, because the former would be more tolerant and cooperative than Park, although Park also says she will provide assistance to the North, as “trust is built between the North and the South.” And, she would basically honor the prior agreements that were reached during the previous liberal administrations ― including the 1991 Basic North-South Agreement and the 2000 inter-Korean summit declaration.

Recently, Pyongyang demanded clarification of Park’s North Korea policy regarding the “May 24 bans” on economic cooperation imposed by the Lee administration after the Cheonan attack as well as the resumption of the Mt. Geumgang tours. Both Moon and Park said they would meet with the young North Korean leader to improve inter-Korean relations.

The North Koreans probably understand its rocket launch would hurt Moon more than Park in the election. But, that would not stop their plans. For North Korean rocket specialists, it is an opportunity to recover their pride for “self-developed technology” and to show their loyalty to their leadership. South Korea, which utilizes Russian technology, had to delay a third rocket launch of its own for a second time last month.

Washington is going through a familiar path of being led by events ― by North Korea-triggered action ― instead of exercising leadership to create a positive environment. Seoul and Washington are issuing hollow warnings; talking harsher sanctions against another North Korean rocket launch, which could be developed into an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States.

It is important to know that North Koreans are more conscious of survival than obtaining negotiating leverage that they may get from their development of weapons. Without understanding why North Korea does the things it does, it will not be possible to peacefully resolve the North Korean missile and nuclear issues. What’s your take?

The writer is a research professor at the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and a visiting professor at the University of North Korean Studies. He is also an ICAS fellow. Reach him at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.