'Trust process' put to test

By Shim Jae-yun

Not surprising at all! North Korea’s young leader dared to do it ― okaying a third nuclear test. Kim Jong-un’s decision has long been anticipated given the dire need to protect his regime, which he inherited from his deceased father Jong-il.

A sensible person might have forecast that the North would press on with the plan, in light of the “teachings” left by the senior Kim. He prioritizes the need to develop and possess nuclear weapons, long-range missiles and bio chemical weapons.

What draws attention is the second point, calling on the North’s regime to win over the United States in any psychological warfare, as if they are engaged in fierce gambling, where the psychological factor largely determines the winner. Most importantly, one should maintain braveness without a speck of any fear about possible loss.

The ultimate winner never cares about what card he has in his hand. Though with only little chance to win, he just bets and bets again, until the opponent eventually gives up, as he sees a look of anxiety in his partner’s eyes. Once one seems fearful, it means a loss.

This may be the reason why the North, which has been employing a tactic of brinkmanship in dealing with the nuclear negotiations, seems to have emerged as the winner of this kind of “chicken game.” Robert Galluci, former U.S. President William Clinton’s special envoy on North Korean nuclear program, admitted a total failure in efforts to deter the North from developing nuclear weapons over the past 20 years.

He even described the two decades quest as a virtual failure. He reasoned the North, which had only mid-range missiles 20 years ago, has come to possess 40kg of plutonium. He said the policy, either engagement or containment, has failed to ease the threat posed by North Korea in East Asia.

The North Korean regime has been adopting similar psychological tactics in relations with China as with the United States. Kim Jong-il barely attempted a nuclear bid during the era of former leaders Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin who maintained a hard-line policy toward the North. Against this backdrop, what is noteworthy in Kim’s teachings is that he pointed to China, on the contrary to general belief, as the very nation which had annoyed the North most historically. But he resumed the nuclear program under former Chinese President Hu Jintao, who maintained a lukewarm and mild approach toward the North, testing nuclear devices in 2006 and 2009.

The collapse of the regime of former Libyan President Moammar Gadhafi, who gave up his nuclear ambitions and to a lesser extent Sadam Hussain might have taught the Kim dynasty a lesson that they should never relinquish their nuclear program under any circumstances.

North Korea’s nuclear gambling seems to have sent President-elect Park Geun-hye reeling in her pursuit of the so-called “trust process on the Korean Peninsula.” It features denuclearization and implementation of the agreements in the past including those reached between the senior Kim and former Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun.

What is amusing is that Park is relatively popular in China with a friendly relationship with Chinese leaders including its incoming President Xi Jinping. This means Park will be able to have more powerful leverage upon the North on the back of China, which has maintained a somewhat uneasy relationship with the current Lee Myung-bak administration. The incumbent government has prioritized ties with the Washington while distancing Beijing. China was the first nation Park sent her special envoy to following her victory in the presidential election in December last year.

For South Korea, especially in its bid to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, it is essential to maintain a balanced relationship both with the U.S. and China. Park is facing a daunting task of handling the maverick North ahead of her inauguration on Feb. 25.