Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management

By Kim Da-ye

Korea will be among the world’s top 10 countries in terms of increase in the size of gross domestic product (GDP) between 2010 and 2019.

This is the good news which Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, jokingly told journalists Wednesday to take to the Korean government.

Korea also has the highest Growth Environment Score (GES) among emerging countries, said O’Neill. The GES is the investment bank’s objective summary measure of conditions that help economic growth.

But his presentation showed that over the next three decades through 2050, Korea won’t enjoy that lofty status as it will lag behind Indonesia, the Philippines and even Nigeria, which has the 33rd largest purchasing-power-parity adjusted GDP at $339 billion.

The 2050 GDP ranking has been compiled by Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research and includes 22 countries from the Group of 7, BRICs and the N-11.

O’Neill is the very person behind the creation of the word BRICs ― Brazil, Russia, India and China ― and the N-11 or next 11, which Korea belongs to along with Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indonesia.

The list is based on two factors ― productivity and the size of the working population ― O’Neill said. Nigeria, for instance, has a population that accounts for 20 percent of Africa. The 152 million figure is the world’s eighth largest, according to the World Factbook published by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency.

This might come as a tough pill to swallow for Koreans who have endeavored to lift up their global status and hope to become among the world’s top 10 largest economies.

Back in 2006, Goldman Sachs forecast that Korea will become the ninth largest economy among the 22 nations and her GDP per capita or personal income will soar to $51,923 _ the world’s third highest.

By 2050, the ranking will fall to the 13th while China will surpass the U.S. with its GDP reaching $48.6 trillion. Indonesia will climb up to the 11th place and Nigeria to the 12th.

The latest data, which O’Neill says hasn’t been modified in the last two years, however, downgraded Korea’s economic status.

The Korean economy will fall behind Turkey and the Philippines while Indonesia becomes the 6th largest behind Russia. The GDP per capita will also drop to the fifth largest after the U.K. Canada and France.

Korea’s decreasing population is largely responsible for the fall. The rest of the developing world will catch up with productivity with a larger work force while Korea’s population is projected to decrease by 6.41 million, according to Korea Statistics.

Fanning the fire of jealousy, O’Neill was very positive about the future of BRICs.

O’Neill said China, which Koreans consider their competitor, would see the GDP rising by $7.25 trillion won in the next 10 years, meaning that we will see one and half of the current China newly created.

He also excitedly recalled his four-day trip to India which he said might grow as much as China does in the next decades.

On Russia, O’Neill says he still gets at least one email a day asking when R will be taken out from the word BRICs. He said that it is a reverse indicator telling Russia is the most undervalued and cheapest market for now.

For Brazil, he praised the country’s cities with beautiful beaches.