Election victory giving big boost to Park Geun-hye but tough challenges lie ahead

Last week’s National Assembly elections paved the way for Park Geun-hye, head of the Saenuri Party’s interim leadership committee to take the initiative in the run-up to the Dec. 19 presidential election. Park, often called the `` election queen,’’ helped the ruling party retain a majority in the 300-seat legislature, and the victory came as a surprise to most political pundits who had forecast an easy win on the part of the opposition alliance.

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether the win will be a boon to Park, hoping to win the presidential poll. Rather, some analysts say, it might ultimately prove to be a bane for her.

One thing for sure after the elections is that Ahn Cheol-soo, the medical doctor-turned-IT mogul, will throw his hat into the ring in December. That’s because most presidential hopefuls from the opposition camp seem incapable of defeating Park, the governing party’s strongest presidential contender. Even Moon Jae-in of the main opposition Democratic United Party (DUP), who won an Assembly seat but failed to engineer a strong wind in Busan, is judged to be no match for Park, the daughter of military strongman-turned-dictator Park Chung-hee..

As things stand now, Ahn appears to be the only opposition figure who could compete with Park. Ahn had been leading Park in almost all hypothetical opinion polls asking which of the two would win the presidential poll since December, when the former surged ahead for the first time.

What’s troubling her most is lukewarm responses from voters in their 20s through 40s in Seoul and the surrounding metropolitan area. The ruling party dominated Park’s hometown of Yeongnam and eastern Gangwon Province, and grabbed nearly half of the country’s middle provinces of Chungcheong. In Seoul, however, the Saenuri Party managed to win in 16 districts out of the 48 that were up for grabs. In the whole metropolitan area with 112 electoral districts, the governing party secured seats in only 43. The election results indicate that Park has to fight the chilling anti-ruling party sentiment now rampant in the metropolitan area in the presidential election.

Park also must grapple with the possible specter of a higher voter turnout by youngsters in Seoul who are critical of the Saenuri Party and President Lee Myung-bak. Young Seoulites went to the polls en masse in last week’s elections _ 45 percent for those in their 20s and 41.8 percent for people in their 30s, compared with 28.1 and 35.5 percent in the 2008 parliamentary elections, respectively.

The fact that support for conservatives and liberals was almost equal in the elections provides more fodder for Park not to be complacent. Saenuri and other conservative parties accounted for 48.2 percent of votes divided among them according to the number they received, compared with 48.5 percent to the liberal parties, including the DUP. Further, the opposition alliance obtained 120,000 more votes than the Saenuri Party in the number of votes cast to elect lawmakers in districts directly.

Given that the voter turnout will reach nearly 70 percent with more young voters casting ballots in the presidential election, Park will have to distance herself from the Lee Myung-bak administration.

In the post-election press conference Thursday, Park pledged her determination not to retreat to outdated malpractices, saying, ``The people gave us a last chance.’’ She said her party would focus on improving people’s livelihood and making Korea a truly integrated country.

Her humble attitude might be a tactic to win the hearts and minds of those who didn’t support her in the parliamentary elections. But taking into account that her biggest asset is trust, whether she will become president will lie in how she can live up to people’s expectations in the next eight months.