By Henry Seggerman
My argument is that the Northern Limit Line (NLL) on the West Sea is fundamentally unfair to North Korea, and that South Korea should at long last address this problem.
I still believe North Korea is a full-fledged member of the “Axis of Evil.” The regime leaders are guilty of crimes against humanity, for which they should be tried and punished. I also still believe that the only morally acceptable reunification would be full absorption of North Korea into a capitalist democratic unified Korea.
But, South Korea is paralyzed in a North Korea policy loaded with inconsistencies. In two blatant acts of war, North Korea killed 46 Cheonan sailors and four people, including two civilians, on Yeonpyeong Island. Proportionate retaliations would arguably have killed 50 North Koreans.
But this could never happen. Why not? Because North Korea has 11,000 cannons pointing at Seoul and really could turn it into a “sea of fire.” So, South Korea has spent nearly two years limiting its “retaliation” to rather feeble verbal demands for an apology from North Korea, which obviously is never coming.
Meanwhile, the Gaeseong Industrial Park continues providing North Korea about $1 billion in annual revenue. Closing the complex would be a perfectly reasonable response to the North’s killing of 50 South Koreans, but somehow this does not occur to the South.
Since Seoul is neither going to retaliate militarily against the killing, nor stop giving Pyongyang nearly $1 billion in revenue at Gaeseong, then it’s perfectly reasonable for me to discuss revisiting the NLL. Economically speaking, doing so would not be the kind of free handout South Korea gives the North at Gaeseong.
No peace agreement was ever signed ending the Korean War, only an armistice. Separate from even the armistice, the U.N. unilaterally drew the NLL without any consent sought from, or given by, North Korea.
The NLL runs for 100 kilometers, hugging North Korea’s coastline sometimes by less than 5 kilometers. It forces North Korean trade ships to make an awkward 100-kilometer northbound detour before they are able to head out into open sea. This is particularly galling given that Haeju, at the southern end of the NLL, is the only port in North Korea which does not freeze over in the winter. Hardly a month goes by without another angry complaint about the NLL coming from North Korea.
Of course we stopped taking those purplish, bellicose North Korea’s press releases seriously years ago. However, when they say the South Korea-U.S. military drills near the NLL are a provocation, they really do have a point. Imagine your pet dog was bitten by a rat and is rabid. Then you take his leash and pull it as tight as you can around his neck. What kind of response do you expect? The drills hugging the very edge of the NLL are a constant reminder of the punitive, arbitrary NLL, never agreed to by North Korea.
Loosening up the NLL is not my crazy new idea. Actually, I borrowed it from late President Roh Moo-hyun. Less than five years ago, Roh diverted enough attention from the endless nuclear shell-game to negotiate a “special peace and cooperation zone in the West Sea encompassing Haeju and vicinity” with North Korea. It was near the end of his rule, the deal did not close, and it was certainly not revived by the new conservative administration that marched into Cheong Wa Dae.
Why not revive President Roh’s idea? Given Park Won-soon’s victory in the Seoul mayoralty race last October, the Democratic United Party (DUP) may “occupy” Cheong Wa Dae this year. If that is the outcome, pursuing President Roh’s West Sea deal may be a possibility.
In fact, both Saenuri Party’s Park Geun-hye and DUP’s Han Myeong-sook are already offering to engage with the North’s new leadership. Eliminating the NLL dispute would remove a dangerously lethal and completely unnecessary flashpoint in South-North relations.
After the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong killings, making any West Sea concessions to North Korea will obviously inflame sensitivities in the South. On top of that, North Korea will surely trumpet that it has “dealt a merciless revolutionary blow to the imperialist stooges of South Korea.”
But why not think up a more creative deal? For example, why not offer some of President Roh’s NLL concessions if the North agrees to move the 11,000 cannons far away from Seoul? Or come up with some other deal which relieves tension and can be seen as advantageous to both sides?
Given the untimely ends met by Saddam Hussein and Moammar Gadhafi, who abandoned their nuclear programs and were later executed, moving the 11,000 cannons will be a much easier sell to the North’s regime than giving up its nuclear weapons.
Over the years, there have been numerous West Sea skirmishes between the two Koreas. It is not unreasonable for us to expect more. And there is a lot more danger of the North’s terrible cannon barrage on Seoul than its starting World War III with its pop-gun nuclear arsenal.
Henry Seggerman is the manager of Korea International Investment Fund, the oldest hedge fund in Korea. The views expressed in the above article are the author’s own and do not reflect the editorial policy of The Korea Times. Contact him at henry.seggerman@iia-funds.com.
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