It is naive to think that North Korea will soon adopt economic reform. But South Korea and its allies can provide carrots so that the communist country can open its economy to the outside world. Economic reform is the only way of nudging the starving North out of hunger.
Yang Hyong-sop, the 86-year-old vice chairman of the Supreme People’s Assembly, has reportedly told the Associated Press (AP) that Kim Jung-un was reviewing the possibility of economic reform. He purportedly said Kim is focusing on creating a knowledge-based economy and is studying cases of economic reform in other countries, including China.
The alleged statement is worth praising. It is premature to conclude that Pyongyang has decided to go down the path of economic reform. North Korea's state media did not carry the AP interview. It is still unclear whether the foreign-educated Jung-un is different from his father on economic reform. A full reading of the AP report indicates no change in the North’s stance.
Reform is the word the late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il dreaded most. He ruled out any possibility of economic reform during his life.
His abhorrence of reform has made the North one of the world’s poorest countries, with people subsisting on a minimum amount of rationed food.
Regardless of Yang’s statement, all countries, excluding North Korea, have not an iota of doubt that economic reform is the only way for the prosperity of the people.
Pyongyang has used the term economic improvement, not economic reform. Economic improvement means a limited opening of the economy in special economic zones while strengthening its totalitarian political system.
The North can be successful in neither economic reform nor improvement unless it scraps its nuclear weapons, a precondition for normalization of ties with the outside world. It will never see its economic turnaround as long as it insists on isolation, confrontation and brinkmanship.
Without international support, Pyongyang will never be successful economically. Little foreign investment will flow into the impoverished country.
South Korea, and its allies, including the United States, could propose the replacement of the armistice by a peace treaty. Seoul should back the swapping of diplomatic missions between Washington and Pyongyang. It means the removal of the North’s fear of the imagined U.S. attack. The United States and China should also openly back any economic reform by the North. This implies an implicit guarantee of its political status quo.
Before signing a peace treaty, it is fantasy to imagine that the North will carry out full-scale economic reform. The foreign-educated Jung-un needs a new way of thinking and new initiatives.
North Korea can adopt the Chinese development model featuring economic opening up without political reform. The outside world needs to create an environment so that it will ultimately appreciate the fruits of economic reform. Its state slogan should shift to the promotion of economic prosperity from pursuing a military-first strategy.