Iran’s primary challenge

By John J. Metzler

UNITED NATIONS ― Amid the swirl of the presidential primary season in the United States and thus the blurring of the international news focus, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been on a political campaign swing of his own through Latin America.

But while the Islamic republic relentlessly pursues the nuclear genie, and the West has met the challenge through incremental sanctions, now it appears Tehran may be willing to up the geopolitical stakes.

Ahmadinejad’s friendship tour to Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba to visit Chavez, Ortega and the Castro Brothers hardly builds a powerful diplomatic coalition. Still, having the Iranian leader on America’s southern doorstep sends a political warning that Tehran is capable of meddling in hemispheric affairs.

Clearly Iran is on the cusp of becoming a nuclear weapons state. Given the apocalyptic pronouncements that the Islamic Republic would willfully use atomic weapons to obliterate Israel, observers are warned that the mullah regime will use a nuclear first strike not only as an option but as a messianic duty. The ramifications are chillingly obvious and the counter-response must be calculated.

Thus far the West’s debate over Iran has been focused on stopping nuclear proliferation through tightening sanctions. In response to widening concerns over the nuclear program, European Union countries will impose an embargo on Iranian oil. And in a show solidarity with Washington, Japan has stated that it will reduce its crude oil imports from Iran.

Thus the mullahs may wish to change the template. Now facing the threat of tighter economic sanctions, the Tehran regime’s characteristic bluster has gone ballistic by threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, the petroleum jugular vein for the United States, Western Europe and Japan, not to mention the Arab oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates who rely on the maritime route for their own oil exports.

In other words even if there are fewer buyers for Iranian oil, the demand for Arab oil will increase. That petroleum must still be shipped via the Strait of Hormuz.

By recklessly threatening to block international waters and thus close vital oil shipping lanes Iran is giving the West, especially the United States and Europe, a classic causus belli, for military action. Such a move by Tehran may actually score its own goal in a number of ways, least of all inviting a strong counter punch by the U.S. Navy.

Nonetheless Iran must also export its own oil through the strait. Why would Tehran shut off its own lucrative exports?

Moreover while it’s easy to threaten the European and Japanese petroleum lifeline, closing this maritime artery will also block petroleum shipments to key customer and diplomatic ally, the People’s Republic of China. Somehow I doubt if Beijing will take such rhetoric or action as a joke.

As mentioned earlier, Iran’s action would also block vital petroleum exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and a host of other producers who would then look to the U.S. Navy as the protector of their commerce.

Tehran’s mullahs are playing a high stakes game of geopolitical chess. During the American presidential election year, and despite the military draw-downs from Iraq and Afghanistan, it would appear that Washington is politically immobilized from any decisive action.

Yet, the Obama administration’s indecisive policies toward Islamic Iran thus far would be reprieved and given the near-golden political opportunity to confront this military challenge and score major domestic political points as well.

Iran probably would be wiser to pursue the diplomatic path in the United Nations where desultory diplomacy in the Security Council will pose a threat but hardly a crippling counter move to Iran’s ambitions. In the diplomatic arena, Tehran can still count on Moscow and probably Beijing to use their veto to stop any serious draft resolutions.

Still in this game of geopolitical chess, Iran may be willing to lose some valuable pieces on the board as to ensure the time necessary to create a nuclear weapon as to checkmate its regional foes and intimidate the world.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of “Transatlantic Divide; USA/Euroland Rift” (University Press, 2010). Contact him at jjmcolumn@earthlink.net.

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