Kim Jong-il in Russia

Pyongyang seeks more aid from Moscow

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is visiting Siberia and the Far Eastern region of Russia. His journey to the neighboring country is the first of its kind since 2002. He is expected to hold a summit with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev during his week-long stay there. He may also meet with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Kim’s trip, although unofficial, has drawn much attention, especially from South Korea. Officials and pundits are busy trying to figure out what’s the purpose of his visit. It is not hard to guess that Kim is seeking more aid from Russia to get his country out of its economic trouble and famine.

In May, Kim traveled to China and met with President Hu Jintao. He managed to attract a considerable sum of Chinese aid and investment. However, some speculated that the impoverished North still needs additional aid and investment from outside. So Kim is now turning to Russia to get what he wants.

Kim may ask the Russian side to invest in the North’s special economic zone in Rason in the Tumen River estuary bordering both Russia and China. Beijing has already committed to actively participate in development projects in Rason and other North Korean locations along the Yalu River.

It is true that Pyongyang has no other allies other than China and Russia that can help the world’s last Stalinist state. Inter-Korean ties have worsened since the North’s military sank the South’s warship Cheonan in March last year and shelled Yeonpyeong Island near the West Sea border in November. Seoul has suspended the provision of economic aid to the North, while international sanctions have been imposed on Pyongyang.

It can be also inferred that the North is in deeper trouble due to its isolation following the provocations against the South. For this reason, Pyongyang seems to be more desperate to get help from Moscow through enhanced economic cooperation. North Korean officials apparently feel the need to move toward Russia as part of efforts to reduce the North’s ever-rising dependence on China for its survival.

If that is the case, the North’s move could be reminiscent of its past equidistance diplomacy involving China and the Soviet Union. Russia has to a certain degree distanced itself from the North since the collapse of the USSR, making China look like the sole ally of the struggling country. Now, Moscow can seize the opportunity to lure Pyongyang to its side by taking advantage of Kim’s visit.

Of course, Russia has much to gain from closer ties with the North. It has an ambitious plan to transform the Far East into a new economic and trade foothold. Therefore, Russia needs to strengthen cooperation not only with the North but also the South, not to mention China and Japan. Closer economic collaboration between Moscow and Pyongyang could also bring benefits to Seoul.

One of the benefits is likely to be a pipeline project to supply natural gas from the Russian Far East to South Korea via North Korea. Russian gas monopoly Gazprom signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on the project with the South’s state-run Korea Gas Corp. in 2008. They also agreed to conduct a joint study for the project in 2009. But the pipeline plan has been on hold due to obstacles, including the standoff in inter-Korean ties.

It is still premature to see a breakthrough in the project that could be a win-win strategy for the three nations, Russia and the two Koreas. It remains to be seen if Kim’s Russian visit might help get rid of the obstacles. Most of all, it is imperative for Seoul and Pyongyang to mend their ties and move toward reconciliation before pushing for such a joint project. Let’s pool wisdom to put inter-Korean ties back on the right track.

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