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The security situation on the Korean Peninsula has reached an extraordinary level of instability. Though the improvement of inter-Korean relations seemed plausible after the U.S.-China summit last January, several failed attempts at rapprochement have dampened such hopes.
North Korea proposed high-level military talks, but the two Koreas failed to meet as they clashed over the agenda. The situation worsened when North Korea made the unprecedented move of disclosing the names of the delegation taking part in secret talks to explore the possibility of holding an inter-Korean summit. As a result, the resumption of the six-party talks stalled at the initial step, and the outlook remains gloomy.
This, of course, has had a negative effect on the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, causing concern in other nations and a need to hasten to find a solution. China apparently called in North Korean leader Kim Jong-il last month to reaffirm the importance of denuclearization and requested the resumption of the six-party talks. The United States, while remaining committed to joint efforts vis-à-vis North Korea, dispatched Robert King, Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights Issues, for a field inspection in preparation for the provision of humanitarian food assistance to North Korea. Notwithstanding these efforts, there has been no apparent breakthrough.
At this juncture, the mistrust of the South Korean public toward North Korea has reached its peak. Some conservatives believe that North Korea will never give up its nuclear weapons. They have pressed South Korea to develop its own nuclear weapons or to bring back the American tactical nuclear weapons that were removed in 1992 upon the signing of the Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (the Joint Declaration). This is in line with the nuclear sovereignty theory that some South Korean scholars have insisted upon, but this claim is a dangerous and unrealistic one.
First, South Korea is bound by its undertaking neither to develop nuclear weapons nor to possess any as a party to the U.N. Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Joint Declaration. At present, the only legal nuclear countries recognized by the NPT are the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and Russia, along with two additional nuclear states, India and Pakistan, which did not join the NPT from the beginning in consideration of their special security situation.
On the other hand, North Korea clandestinely pursued nuclear weapons development and later unilaterally declared its withdrawal from the NPT in 1993. Since then, North Korea has been subject to U.N. sanctions. Currently, there is shocking news that Iran, still party to the NPT, is suspected of developing nuclear weapons as well. Given this context, if South Korea pursues nuclear development, it would have to withdraw from the NPT and breach the terms of the Joint Declaration. In other words, South Korea would become another rogue state following North Korea and Iran in posing a threat to international peace and security, and would also become subject to U.N. sanctions.
In addition, South Korea is in fact well protected by the deterrence effect of the extended nuclear umbrella provided by the strong ROK-U.S. alliance. If the U.S. adopts nuclear nonproliferation as a core tenet of its security policy, the defection of an ally like South Korea would endanger the alliance itself and cause South Korea to eventually face more serious security problems.
Finally, South Korean nuclear development would produce a nuclear domino effect by inviting Japan and other regional players to pursue their own nuclear weapons, and this would further jeopardize regional security. This would also disrupt South Korea’s peaceful use of nuclear materials and cause immeasurable political and social confusion.
In conclusion, the North Korean nuclear problem should be resolved by peaceful means instead of military ones. For this, China’s active role is critical with its rise in the international community, yet its recent attitude supporting North Korea’s stance is quite disappointing. Nevertheless, China has reaffirmed many times its commitment to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and thus it is especially important for South Korea to reinforce its security discussions with China at this juncture.
The six-party talks are already in progress. The parties have succeeded in drawing foundational frameworks like the Joint Statement of September 19 and that of October 3. The key is to spur the current efforts and find desirable implementation methods, which requires more creative initiatives to drive North Korea to the talks.
Neither South Korea’s own nuclear weapons nor redeployment of U.S. tactical nukes would resolve this prolonged North Korean nuclear quagmire.
The writer is a distinguished professor at the Graduate School of International Area Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. A career diplomat, Yim is also senior advisor for Lee International IP & Law Group. He can be reached at yimsungjoon@gmail.com.
