By Peter Copeland
Trying to predict what will happen in North Korea is unwise and unlikely to prepare us for what does come next.
For decades, the line between North Korea and South Korea has been a place that could draw the United States into a major war. Getting Korea wrong could have disastrous consequences for the entire world.
The problem dates back to the long Japanese occupation of Korea and then the division of the country after World War II, when South Korea went with the United States and North Korea went with the Soviet Union.
North Korea invaded the South in 1950, and American soldiers helped drive them back to the 38th Parallel, splitting the country in two at today's heavily armed, 160-mile border.
Since the war, South Korea has grown into a prosperous and increasingly democratic state. North Korea has been ruled poorly by a single family, which has clamped down on an impoverished and repressed population.
In the middle sits the United States, with troops on the border and a long commitment to defend South Korea from North Korea. This is why what happens in North Korea is so important to the United States.
What happens in North Korea is a mystery, however, and always has been. We know that Kim Il-sung ran the country until his death in 1994, when son Kim Jong-il took command. Experts now believe the ailing leader is grooming a son ― the third generation ― to take power.
We also know that North Korea has a massive conventional military and a nuclear weapons program. Beyond that, don't believe anything you hear about North Korea. As this week's release of purloined diplomatic cables shows, even the best experts from China, South Korea and the United States have been consistently wrong and in the dark about the north.
The biggest mistake we could make is assuming that the rulers of North Korea are rational and will therefore respond predictably to our carrots or our sticks. We simply do not know what makes them tick, or even less, what they will do next.
The U.S. position has been clear and consistent. Unfortunately, the next move belongs to North Korea.
Peter Copeland is a columnist for Scripps Howard News Service (www.scrippsnews.com).