By Lee Chang-sup
2012 will be a critical year for the two Koreas and the surrounding powers. Korea, the United States, and Russia will hold presidential elections. Xi Zinping will take over China’s leadership, while in North Korea, it is the year marking the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung.
It is quite a coincidence for the countries in and around the Korean Peninsula to see simultaneous power transitions. South Korea will hold its presidential election in December 2012 to choose a successor to President Lee Myung-bak. The question is whether a conservative leader will run the country again or whether the liberal opposition party will retake the presidency.
Once the nation revises the Constitution, Korea will see a two-term, four-year presidency, or a parliamentary form of government. Barring a last-minute change of mind from Park Geun-hye and Sohn Hak-kyu, there is the remote possibility of a constitutional amendment.
Ahead of the presidential election, the country will hold general elections in April. Past elections have a trend that a victorious party in the general elections will win again in the presidential election.
In the United States, Democrat Barack Obama will attempt a second term; while Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin may run for the presidency for a third term.
The year is quite a critical period for North Korea. Kim Jong-il had repeatedly told his people that, by the centennial of Kim Il-sung’s birth, North Korea will have become an economically prosperous and militarily powerful country. At this stage, the commitment will likely to end in a pipe dream.
Kim Jong-il may turn over his day-to-day operations to his son Jong-un and lead a semi-reclusive life as he turns 70.
The elder Kim said that nothing would change from his father’s legacy, a remark he made following the death of Kim Il-sung in 1994. He has repeated that possessing nuclear weapons is against the will of his father. This is the reason why he is seeking to normalize ties with the United States in return for scrapping his nuclear ambitions.
If past behavior is any indication, however, this would be a case of just lip service. Few question the assumption that he will scrap nuclear weapons. In the worst case scenario, he may possess more than 30 nuclear bombs by 2012.
South Korea has won the competition against North Korea in the social, economic, educational and diplomatic games. The centenary should be the beginning of the end of the Kim dynasty.
News on the Korean Peninsula seems to come unexpectedly: No one foresaw the Korean War; and no one predicted the rise of South Korea to become a global economic powerhouse from the devastation of the Korean War. No one would guess that Korea could have remained divided for so long. Few had predicted that North Korea would possess nuclear devices although its people have suffered and starved and its industry collapsed.
In the run-up to the 2012 presidential election in the South, the North may adopt bizarre tactics to foil the re-election of a conservative regime, which has been hostile to Pyongyang.
The world may be in for additional good or terrible surprises on the peninsula. A change in leadership in the U.S. may have some impact but not all that much on its Korean policy. Sometimes many Koreans wonder if Washington is paying lip service to the alliance, or whether it is ready to engage the North for denuclearization.
It may be a daydream to think that the North and the South will reunite peacefully, with normal commerce, unplanned family visits, telephone, email and mail communications. When China and Taiwan are doing such things now, why cannot the two Koreas do so?
There are some pleasant surprises too, however. Look at life in the South. For all the problems, no one would have imagined the South could become so advanced, so prosperous and so capable of competing economically and culturally.
If South Koreans do not expect too much, they may be pleasantly surprised if the course of Korean and world history turns out better than expected. South Koreans are so accustomed to the status quo in inter-Korean relations that they are unprepared for sudden seismic changes.
The changes of power will have a complex influence on the peninsula. In election years, each country becomes inward-looking and has little time to take care of others. Policy changes are inevitable.
Seoul and Washington may change their North Korea policy, depending on who are the owners of the White House and the Blue House. Pyongyang will continue to test the patience of the neighboring countries through its nuclear card.
China appears to want the status quo on the peninsula. This is unlikely to change even if China’s new leadership emerges in 2012. As long as the Communist Party monopolizes power, it may take time for Beijing to regard Pyongyang as a liability. When the current teens and 20s become next leaders, the South may expect moderate change. This may not happen probably till the end of 2020.
South Korea needs a new national strategy to cope with a strong China, tough economic competition, and North Korea’s instability. The South has tremendous opportunities but the elite and top social leaders have not done a good job so far. Stay tuned-in to the Korean drama!
Lee Chang-sup is the chief editorial writer of The Korea Times. He can be reached at editorial@koreatimes.co.kr.