By Tong Kim
The anointment of Kim Jong-un as the next leader of North Korea has finally come true after a long period of speculation. It was not a surprise. I had predicted in an interview with a South Korean weekly magazine five years ago that Kim Jong-il would be succeed by one of his sons, while most observers were inclined to believe that a collective military leadership structure would more likely rule the North. The basis for my prediction was simple: North Korea is a ``Confucian nationalist autocratic dynasty.”
Recently many observers again speculated that Jang Song-thaek, the husband of Kim Kyong-hui, Kim Jong-il’s sister, who was also appointed along with Kim Jong-un as a four-star general last week, would become a regent or a de facto or even a de jure ruler of North Korea, even if Jong-un becomes a nominal leader. There were reports that Kim Kyong-hui might be the next in line for the leadership. They were all wrong. Many speculators are now saying that a second father-to-son succession process has just begun and its success is not certain. They are wrong: Kim Jong-un will be the next leader of North Korea.
Appointed as a vice chairman of the party’s central military commission and a member of the Central Committee of the party, Kim Jong-un is supported by Vice Marshal Ri Yong-ho, who has emerged as the most powerful military man, and by vice chairman of the National Defense Commission (NDC) Jang Song-thaek, who is concurrently the party’s administration department chairman, and who knows how the country is run from inside out. Last week Ri was also named as one of the Politburo’s five members, who include Kim Jong-il as the chairman, president of the presidium Kim Young-nam, NDC’s first vice chairman Jo Myung-rok, and Premier Choi Young-rim.
The NDC is the highest constitutional decision-making body, which is also headed by Kim Jong-il. The NDC started as a tool to implement the ``Sungun Jongchi” (military-first policy) in place of or in complement to Juche (the ideology of self-reliance). When Jang was made a NDC vice chairman, many observers took it as a signal for his potential rise to a virtual ruler. They were wrong.
Even today, observers suspect that Chang is controlled through his wife or conversely that she is being taken advantage of by him. There is no evidence for either case. The evidence we have is that Kim Jong-il, who is under the strong influence of traditional Confucianism, appears to rely on his relatives and his most trusted elites for the succession and sustainment of the North Korean system that he inherited from his father.
It is reasonable to think that the designated heir will start making visible decisions, eventually taking higher titles of responsibility down the road, while a more aggressive cult for him will be established. True, unlike his father, Jong-un has not 20 years to prepare himself for taking over the rein of power. But there is no rational ground to argue it should take a similarly lengthy period for a successful transition. Kim Jong-un is already in power.
We did not even know what he looked like until last week when Pyongyang released his photograph, from which analysts rushed to draw excessive inferences. Soon we will start learning about for how long and in what way the young designee has been trained. Don’t hold your breath: there will be no coup or a sudden collapse because of the ``young, inexperienced kid’s” rise to power.
In the history of Korean dynasties, the kings designated and groomed their successors from their children, and many of them were enthroned in their teens or 20s. Yes, the young kings were often susceptible to good or ill advice or manipulation by their self-interest seeking relatives or ministers. If Kim Jong-un is 27 of 28, he should be mature enough to rule a kingdom by the historic standard. A ruler does not have to be a genius, as North Korean propaganda claims both Kim Jong-il and his third son are. Apparently, the elder Kim had determined Jong-un was the most fitting among his three sons.
What I read out of the closing chapter of the succession issue is: First, Kim Jong-il is fully in control of North Korea’s political agenda. He picked his heir and he came up with what appears to be a system of checks and balances between the NDC and the party, placing his relatives and younger, able confidents in the right positions to support his son’s succession and to assist his son’s performance in leadership when the Dear Leader leaves the scene.
Second, there will be no major policy change toward the United States or South Korea, unless Washington or Seoul shifts its policy first. Pyongyang will continue to play its own version of a two-track approach: provocation and dialogue. We don’t know whether the North Korean leadership engages in ``provocation” for the domestic audience or for a signal to Washington or Seoul, or to meet both purposes. What we know is that the North Koreans are acting in what they believe to be the best interest of their regime.
Third, the new leadership will likely focus on building the economy and especially solving the problem of feeding the people. Pyongyang claims that since their security is assured by their ``nuclear deterrent,” they can now concentrate on economic improvement.
Fourth, there would probably be a division of labor between the father and the son in the meantime. Kim Jong-il will continue to deal with foreign policy issues, including the nuclear issues, while Jong-un will be more in charge of domestic policy _ internal political and military control as well as economic programs. North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons under the current circumstances. What’s your take?
Tong Kim is a research professor with the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He can be reached at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.