By U Win Tin

In the 20 years since its last free and fair election, Myanmar (Burma) has become Southeast Asia's poorest country, has continued the world's longest civil war, produces the highest number of refugees per capita in the world, and is home to one of the highest numbers of child soldiers.

Yet, major powers, regional governments and international bodies seem prepared to allow the imminent elections scheduled for this year ― a hollow poll driven by the strategic needs of the military ― to go ahead and for the military to be self-legitimized as rulers of some 55 million Myanmarese (Burmese).

Without a firm plan of action, this is exactly what will occur.

July's summit of foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Hanoi, confirms this laxity. Despite much public cajoling and strong words behind closed doors, the ASEAN organization has once again failed to offer a firm approach or a regionally approved and facilitated roadmap.

While demands first formalized by ASEAN in 2003 for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy, remain in place, suggestions from some that she should be released and allowed to participate in the elections have been quashed by the military. Also, the possibility of a special ASEAN envoy to Myanmar was not pursued.

As such, these demands remain little more than paper tigers, as they are not backed institutionally by ASEAN, nor is there any formalized process to move in any specified direction.

In the words of one senior ASEAN diplomat in Hanoi, reported in local media, “in the end, we (ASEAN) will probably end up being a big rubber stamp.”

Meanwhile, the U.S., dithers on the sidelines, unable or unwilling to embolden its position. After taking months to review its Myanmar policy, it then sought to maintain a policy status quo; a combination of engagement and sanctions.

U.S. engagement has faltered without a special Myanmar envoy and sanctions have limited effect as Myanmar's close ties with China have tended to surmount economic barriers to trade and investment.

As such, the U.S. position on the elections has fallen in with that of ASEAN ― one characterized by stern words and lofty hopes, but lacking the foundation of a solid plan of action.

For the United Nations, it has been over a year since the special envoy for Myanmar has visited and one year since the U.N.'s secretary general spoke with us in person. Neither has been to Myanmar since Aung San Suu Kyi was detained yet again, following a sham trial last year.

The U.N. Security Council has not weighed into the Myanmar issue for almost three years.

The Myanmarese regime has been able to completely ignore and repudiate international and regional actors. The proposed 2010 elections will not lead to the reconciliation between various forces in Myanmar ― so effectively wedged apart by the military ― the international community so hopes for, and that the region so needs.

With the elections the regime is playing a zero-sum game. The goal is to completely crush all opposition parties and to completely exclude all relevant stakeholders in Myanmar's supposed journey to democracy.

The exclusion of major political participants, from ethnic groups such as major Kachin parties, to leading political figures denied access to the elections by virtue of being imprisoned (including Aung San Suu Kyi herself), is in actuality, the ultimate in wedge politics, keeping the country on the edge of failed state status and denying any semblance of true reconciliation.

In effect, the 2010 elections will lead to more chaos in Myanmar. Tensions will rise as a result of thwarted ambitions and, the implications of poverty and the continued violations of basic human rights will possibly boil over.

Increased instability in Myanmar ― an outcome surely no-one wants, even the country's faithful patrons in Beijing ― will be the most likely outcome.

The National League for Democracy called for a regional dialogue on Myanmar some years ago. We feel this should be driven by ASEAN, largely via the extended ASEAN Regional Forum, and that it should be conducted in Asia.

The goal of such a forum is to find ways the international community and the Myanmarese military can work together to initiate a sincere transition to democracy in Myanmar.

The bottom line is, of course, to devise a plan of action. Without such a strategy, Myanmar's elections will lead nowhere. They do, however, present an opportunity, one which the international community has so far failed to take.

U Win Tin is co-founder of the National League for Democracy and was imprisoned by the military for 19 years.