Opposition’s chance for 2012

By Tong Kim

The next one month will be a crucial period for South Korean politics. The opposition Democratic Party (DP) will hold a national party convention on Sept. 18 to elect a new leader, on whom the success or failure of DP’s bids for the presidential election of 2012 may depend.

President Lee Myung-bak, who changed his presidential staff in the wake of the Grand National Party’s (GNP) defeat in the June 2 local elections, has announced several new cabinet nominees, all subject to confirmation by the National Assembly.

The GNP’s decisive victory in the July 28 by-elections virtually handed the President a vote of confidence to run the government without worrying about an early lame duck phenomenon for the second half of his term. This was an ironic result of the DP’s inept campaign strategy, by which its leadership had expected the voters to rally against the Lee government for the second time, without offering competitive policy options that would make a difference.

The people who had voted to punish the GNP in the local elections turned around to disapprove the DP in the parliamentary by-elections.

Some pundits argued that more conservatives went to the polls because they felt a sense of crisis for the conservative GNP, while many young voters were less enthusiastic about the by-elections during the summer vacation season.

It seemed more likely that the people voted largely based on the merits of the candidates’ personal qualities and their campaign platforms. They demonstrated their mature judgment to elect their national representatives irrespective of their party preferences.

In Korea when a party loses major elections, its leader resigns. Chung Sey-kyun resigned as the DP leader after the July 28 by-elections. After the local elections, GNP chairman Chung Mong-joon resigned, The GNP chose Ahn Sang-soo as its next chairman through a national convention. Soon the GNP will absorb a pro-Park Geun-hye faction to secure 180 seats of the total 299 seats of the National Assembly.

However, if President Lee fails again to work with former GNP chairperson Park Geun-hye, who controls about one-third of the GNP seats, he would not be able to accomplish very much. Lee failed in his Sejong City plan largely because of Park’s opposition. Lee will soon meet with Park, and many GNP supporters are hoping their meeting will not end as just another meeting without showing any improvement of Lee’s political leadership.

Following the elections, Lee and his party are focusing more on the needs to improve communication and the image of his government as ``compassionate” to the economically underprivileged. The Lee government is still struggling with the classic question of finding a balance between growth and distribution.

Some conservatives are already complaining the GNP government is leaning toward populism of the left. Support for big businesses makes sense for growth but trickle-down effects of such policy usually take too long to produce a positive impact on the majority of voters.

On the DP front, several issues must be resolved before the holding of the party convention. They include the questions of (1) whether to keep the single leader system or to adopt a collective leadership; (2) whether to separate party leadership from presidential candidacy, meaning one person should not become the party’s leader and its presidential candidate; and (3) whether to give voting rights to elect the next party leader to all registered DP members.

The next DP leader will oversee the selection process of party nominees for general elections and the presidential election in 2012. In Korea it is normally party leadership that determines candidates for elections, with the possible exception of a presidential candidate.

For this reason, followers support their factional leaders in their self-interests of obtaining nominations for running for public offices rather than for the collective party interest or national cause. This is why the DP convention for Sept. 18 is so complicated.

There are ``three big” potentials for DP leadership: Chung Sey-kyun who ran the DP quite well for the past two years until its humiliating defeat on July 28; Chung Dong-young who is considered as a dynamic ``comeback-kid” from his failed presidential bid of 2007, and Sohn Hak-kyu, a popular deserter from the GNP, who pays close attention to the wishes of the voters.

In popularity polls, Sohn is leading, slightly ahead of Chung Dong-young and Chung Sey-kyun, although Sohn is weaker in terms of support basis within the DP than the other two. If Chung Dong-young decides not to run, his supporters are more likely to support Sohn than Chung Sey-kyun.

All three know that none of them can win the next presidential election if they fail to co-produce fair and interesting democratic competitions this time and at the time of an eventual presidential primary. They also know that subsequently they must show an image of unity and cooperation within the party and even with all other minor opposition parties.

It is interesting to note a shifting ideological trend in Korean politics. Chung Sey-kyun pursued a middle-of-the-road reform policy, which did not seem to have produced much benefit for the poor, while appearing not to fight hard enough with the government, especially at a time when the government says it is trying to carry out policies to help the middle and low classes as much as the DP.

Chung Dong-young seems to think if the support bases overlap between the GNP and the DP, it would be more helpful to the GNP, as it would not help coalesce progressives and left-leaning centrists. Chung argues that the DP should move a few clicks more to the left to the point of ``bold progressivism.” He will offer a clear choice. In terms of character, ability, leadership and vision, Chung would be a formidable opponent for any GNP candidate to beat in 2012.

Sohn Hak-kyu, a former governor of Gyeonggi Province and the opposition leader in 2007, would also be a strong contender. His ideological thinking is not well known. But he is a shrewd, prudent and popular politician.

Tong Kim is a research professor with the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He can be reached at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.