Tit-for-tat retaliation should be ruled out
Seoul officially pinpointed Pyongyang as the attacker of a South Korean warship, Thursday, leading North Korea to deny culpability and threaten a "holy war." The provocation has led the two Koreas to one of the most dangerous points since the Korean War.
The international investigation team concluded that the warship was bisected by the detonation of a non-contact torpedo fired by a North Korean submarine. The team found a serial number and Korean characters on a torpedo propeller fragment. It also discovered traces of explosives in the wreckage similar to a North Korean torpedo South Korea seven years ago.
The technical explanations will be convincing enough for the international community. The military needs to analyze North Korea's intention whether the attack was to get revenge for the last naval clash, however.
As expected, North Korea angrily repudiated it, saying it was a complete fabrication, and proposed dispatching its own inspection team to the South for verification. It threatened to take extreme measures, including starting a "holy war," if damage is done on the ``innocent.''
President Lee Myung-bak will convene a National Security Council (NSC) meeting next week to review a variety of diplomatic, economic and military options. Seoul will seek additional UN and EU sanctions, and bolster its defense posture on the Korean Peninsula with the U.S. The South wants Washington to blacklist the North as a terrorist country again, and plans to suspend all inter-Korean economic cooperation and exchanges, excluding the Gaeseong industrial project. North Korean ships will no longer be able to pass through South Korean waters, and the military is to resume propaganda broadcasting along the DMZ.
The provocative sinking indicates that Kim Jong-il has either lost his tight grip on the military or has lost his judgment due to aging and illness. No one in the North, except for Kim, can order such a clandestine act.
The convincing technical explanation will result in calls on China to reduce support to North Korea.
Anti-China sentiment has reached a peak here over Beijing's fence-sitting and the country's global image will be tarnished if it continues to waver over the tragedy which killed 46 seamen. China's illogical embrace of the North will push South Korea closer to the United States.
U.S. President Barack Obama reaffirmed U.S. commitment to the defense of Korea, and backed Seoul's investigation result. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is to discuss the issue during her visit to Beijing and Seoul next week. A failure to form a consensus on punishment between the U.S. and China might strain their ties. The tension will change the current status quo not only on the Korean Peninsula but also in East Asia.
The North has little to lose from additional UN punishment because previous sanctions are already in effect.
Any new sanctions will put the six-party talks for denuclearizing North Korea on the back burner.
The announcement was made just two weeks before local elections on June 2 despite an opposition call for delaying the announcement until after the election. The liberal opposition Democratic Party demanded that President Lee make a public apology for security loopholes, conduct a Cabinet reshuffle and prosecute delinquent military leaders. It said it was shocked to hear that the North was behind the attack, and called for the formation of a special National Assembly panel to look into the case to "clear away lingering public skepticism."
Seoul should expect additional provocative acts from Pyoungyang, including nuclear or missile tests and armed conflicts at the sea border off the West Coast. South Korean airplanes will no longer enter the airspace of the North, which will put its people into crisis mode to prepare for what it calls a "holy war."
In retaliation, the government will be wise enough to exclude a tit-for-tat military action, which will definitely trigger counterattacks. A military clash will jeopardize the lives of 20 million people in Seoul and the surrounding areas. President Lee should not be remembered as a warmonger, however, doing nothing will trigger a strong backlash from the people.
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