By Henry Seggerman

Among the mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers and wives of the 46 South Korean sailors killed by a North Korean torpedo, some may wish that Kim Jong-il be tried and executed for this crime. That is a most natural feeling.

North Koreans who have suffered forced abortions and seen their own children tortured to death in North Korean gulags may have similar feelings. There would be nothing abnormal in that.

Like it or not, retribution is normal in our world. When Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands, England retaliated, killing 649 Argentine soldiers and sailors, and retaking the islands. When al-Qaida blew up two U.S. embassies in Africa, the U.S. retaliated against al-Qaida camps in Afghanistan and one of its factories in the Sudan.

However, South Korea will not retaliate against the North Korea for its murder of the 46 sailors. There will be no trial, there will be no execution of Kim, for this or any of his many crimes. NATO will not free an enslaved people, as it did in Afghanistan. Instead, it will be the other NATO (``No Action, Talk Only"). Here is the latest Talk Only from Thursday's headline: ``South Korea demands a 'stern' global response."

And what kind of ``stern response" can those bereaved mothers and fathers expect? Kim Yong-hyun, professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University, said, ``Any more U.N. sanctions will be symbolic at best, given North Korea is already under sanctions."

Symbolic sanctions? Why? It is because North Korea has enjoyed complete leverage over South Korea for 50 years. North Korea has 11,000 heavy artillery pieces, plus hundreds of missiles, pointed at Seoul. North Korea could kill one million Seoul residents in three or four hours.

This is why South Korea will not ever be able to retaliate against the torpedo attack. This is why South Korea also did not retaliate after North Korea shot down Korean Air flight 858, killing 115 civilians. Incidentally, that attack was ordered by Kim personally to impress his dad.

My best guess is that the torpedo attack was like the murder of Park Wang-ja (Remember her?) at Mt. Geumgang, the act of a single soldier not thinking clearly. But this hardly lets Kim off the hook.

What country does have leverage over North Korea?

China is the largest investor and trading partner for the North. This year, China tripled its free or subsidized grain shipments to North Korea. And, the New York Times reported, ``North Korea depends on China for up to 90 percent of its oil supplies, much of which is sold on credit or for bartered goods, according to Chinese energy experts. Any sustained reduction could cripple its isolated and struggling economy."

For its entire history, North Korea has been completely reliant on other countries, first, the Soviet Union, and now China. So, the U.N. should waste no more time with ``symbolic sanctions." A China oil cutoff is much easier and it's already proven to work fast.

In fact, why don't they just boil the six-party talks down to one-party talks, as in China just telling North Korea what to do, or they'll cut off the 90 percent oil giveaway? This would save the other five a lot of time and pointless travel expenses.

The Chinese leadership must be sick and tired of Kim Jong-il. As a nation, China seeks to gain the world's respect through explosive economic growth and dramatic improvements in the lives of its people.

But the Chinese are repeatedly embarrassed by their demented, Hennessy-swilling, mass murdering next-door neighbor ― who happens to be latched onto their oil teat for 90 percent of his country's desperate fuel needs. For China, North Korea's torpedo murders are much more embarrassing than its laughable nuclear program, because they are so ugly, so despicable.

Aware of their ``one-party talks" leverage over North Korea, the Chinese certainly must be considering various endgames for the Kim dynasty right now. I'll take the liberty of suggesting one here. Why doesn't China organize a Velvet Reunification between North and South Korea?

Tell the North the oil, grain, power, fertilizer shipments are over as of right now. Give Kim and his various spawns 30 days to get out of Dodge. Offer them amnesty in some far-off location. This got Idi Amin out of Uganda, perhaps it can work for Kim Jong-il.

Bloodthirsty mass murderers like Idi Amin and Pol Pot got off scot-free when their regimes were changed, because halting mass murder was more pressing to the world community than seeing one man hang. Kim Jong-il has a lot more leverage than Idi Amin and Pol Pot, so we have to accept the fact that he may end up evading the gallows.

China can save money and avoid instability in its Northeast if it pursues reunification rather than absorbing a North Korean region as it did with Hong Kong, Tibet, etc. If you dangle in front of North Koreans near the Chinese border the joys of reunification, fewer will flee into China. Besides, aren't many North Korean women being kidnapped into sex slavery by local Chinese vultures?

In a post-Kim North Korea, the smartest thing would be to disable its military threat, but use its extensive upper ranks to help in the transition. They are better-educated and better-fed than the average North Korean and will be essential in the vast infrastructure rebuilding to come.

There's this endless and quite nonsensical military chess game going on between China and the U.S. which is not based in any reality. For example, we all know there will be Red Chinese boots on the ground in Taiwan soon and that U.S. troops in South Korea aren't going to stop them.

So, to sweeten the deal with China and keep remaining North Korean army brass from getting jumpy, South Korea could ask its American friends to shift their troops over to Japan for 5-10 years, as a purely cosmetic gesture, to dispel any concern reunified Korea is a U.S. puppet regime. (It's not.) After reunification, the U.S. troops will have little purpose, anyway. I don't even know what real purpose they serve there now, given a one-million-strong North Korean army.

So, those are my suggestions to the Chinese leadership. China has witnessed monumental changes throughout the communist world over the last 25 years. Many of these changes in Europe and Central Asia happened suddenly, unpredictably. North Korea is a failed state on every level imaginable, perhaps teetering at the edge of its own unpredictable cliff.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, China has propped up and sustained this fictional fantasy of a nation. Isn't it time for China to step in and stop the madness?

If China brought peace and stability to the Korean Peninsula, surely it would earn the respect of the entire world. China will be the No. 1 economy in the world two decades from now. In that context, shouldn't it want to solve this relatively small problem, rather than perpetuate it?

Henry Seggerman is the portfolio manager of Korea International Investment Holdings. He is also a regular contributor to The Korea Times. The views expressed in the above article are the author's own and do not reflect the editorial policy of The Korea Times.