Symbolism prevailed in President Lee Myung-bak's speech at the War Museum in Seoul Monday. His message is a warning against military provocation and a message for peace for the prosperity of the divided peninsula. The President unveiled many sticks to retaliate against the North but no carrots for changing it.
From today, Seoul has suspended all inter-Korean contacts, exchanges, trade, investment and aid as well as banning North Korean commercial ships from sailing through southern seas. The military will resume anti-Kim Jong-il broadcasting along the DMZ, and Korea and the United States plan a joint anti-submarine exercise off the West Sea, the flash point where the Navy ship was attacked.
Lee categorized North Korea's torpedoing of the South Korean warship as a provocation against the Republic of Korea. He was smart enough to preclude tit-for-tat retaliation for the attack. He said the country will invoke her self-defense rights whenever the North infringes upon the South's territory, namely land, sea and air.
Lee did not pinpoint Kim as the mastermind of the attack. Despite the regime's hostilities, he showed sympathy to the North Korean people, including the malnourished children, to whom assistance will continue. The President, as the country's commander in chief, stopped short of apologizing to the nation for the defense loophole. Instead, he acknowledged the slackened discipline in the military, hinting at the sacking of military leaders who were unprepared for the attack. He advised North Korea to change its anachronistic and recurring military adventurism, which risks its international isolation and also spoils South Korea's global image. He said it was shameful for Pyongyang to deny culpability and threaten retaliation.
Lee said the Koreas should take the initiative to ensure peace, security, prosperity and the ultimate unification of the Korean peninsula. He was unspecific on this. The South will lose more than the North commercially when nonmilitary ships are not allowed to use its seas. The safety of South Korean workers in the Gaeseong conclave is also worrisome, while China and Russia need to be convinced to sanction North Korea through the U.N.
The military are on high vigilance against further provocation, with the government monitoring unusual volatility in currency and stock markets. North Korea might again surprise the South through unimaginable and heinous schemes.
The Kim regime might have provoked tensions apparently to strengthen its grip on the loosening North Korean society following a currency reform fiasco and a planned dynastic succession. The North Korean media is full of propaganda for war preparations.
Talking about ways of scrapping Pyongyang's nuclear weapons is now a luxury. Worrisome is the complete shutdown of the inter-Korean hotline. A third inter-Korean summit now looks infeasible as it must be conditional on Kim's vow not to repeat this kind of provocation after apologizing for the recent naval tragedy.
As the President says, the peninsula is at a critical turning point, either for better or for worse. The two Koreas should seek ways of making sure hostilities are housed only in the War Museum for mutual prosperity. It takes two to tango.