The already tense inter-Korean relationns are sure to deteriorate further as Seoul announces the results of its investigation into the sinking of a warship Thursday. Investigators concluded Wednesday that the 1,200-ton frigate Cheonan was attacked by a North Korean torpedo in the Yellow Sea on March 26 before splitting in half and sinking.
President Lee Myung-bak already spoke with his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama over the phone Tuesday to discuss a joint response to the foregone conclusion. And officials briefed the investigation outcome to the Seoul-based diplomats from three neighboring countries ― China, Russia and Japan ― that are participants of the six-party talks for denuclearizing North Korea. The next day, they also explained the cause of the naval disaster to diplomats of 30 other countries.
These latest developments show that the Lee administration has started diplomatic efforts to garner international support in an apparent move to take the case to the U.N. Security Council to punish those responsible for the attack. Needless to say, it will not be easy to persuade the international community to agree to sanctions against Pyongyang.
The Lee government is also reportedly seeking separate measures to suspend all inter-Korean economic cooperation except the operation of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex. If such punitive steps are put in place, the South cannot but face further escalation of the tensions with the North.
What's worrisome is that Pyongyang might resort to more hostility and brinkmanship in retaliation for Seoul's action against the Cheonan incident. That's why the Lee administration should be alert over unpredictable consequences to be exacted by the recalcitrant North. In order to prevent unintended consequences, the South must take more carefully calculated steps to tighten the noose around the Kim Jong-il regime.
At the instruction of the government, 75 South Korean businessmen and workers staying in the North returned home from May 14 to 18. And 11 archaeologists also came back Tuesday after ending a joint excavation of an ancient palace in North Korea three weeks earlier than scheduled. Seoul has also asked local firms to refrain from starting new ventures in the world's last Stalinist country.
However, skeptics ask a question: are those moves enough to ensure the personal safety of South Koreans remaining in the North? At present, a total of 1,015 South Koreans are staying in the communist state. They break down to 1,000 in the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, 14 in the Mt. Geumgang resort, and one in Pyongyang.
What if the South Koreans are taken hostage, especially in the joint industrial park! No one can be sure if the North will shut down the complex and stage a hostage drama, running the risk of losing the cash-cow project, a symbol of inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation. The Seoul government should work out measures to protect its citizens in the North before it seeks to punish the North. Only then it can make good on its vows to take ``decisive" and ``stern" action against those who are culpable for the naval incident.