By Hamish Stewart and Marco Picardi
Led by increasing investment in natural resources and optimistic predictions for overall economic growth, it appears that 2010 will be the year of Africa's ascendance in international affairs.
As Africa's share of global foreign direct investment continues to grow, domestic and regional politics will become increasingly sensitive to investment decisions by foreign firms. The recent dispute between Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana over ownership rights to a new offshore oil discovery in the Gulf of Guinea highlights the growing propensity of private companies to affect African geopolitics.
The find, a result of joint venture prospecting by Russian-owned Lukoil and U.S. firm Vanco, is situated over 1-km deep on the Tano basin in waters off Ghana's Cape Three Points, in close enough proximity to neighbouring Cote d'Ivoire for there to be a challenge over Ghana's maritime jurisdiction over the area. Thus, by unearthing these new reserves, the actions of two multinational firms could place hitherto peaceful relations between these two West African states in jeopardy.
Ghana's recent oil-related conflict with its neighbour illustrates a new challenge for the continent's leaders. The interstate peace that has largely prevailed in post-colonial Africa is under increasing threat from competition between African states to secure foreign investment.
Already, this competition has caused some of the region's biggest diplomatic spats. Nigeria's 20-year struggle with Cameroon over control of the Bakassi peninsula has resulted in fractious ties between the two nations since the discovery of oil in the territory, and ongoing tensions in Angola's oil-producing Cabinda province threaten to impact neighbouring countries (attacks on the Togolese football team in early January of 2010 being the most recent example).
The potential for similar future conflict remains foreseeable. Situated in between the reserves of Angola and Ghana, an estimated 34 billion barrels of untouched oil reserves in waters claimed by both Equatorial Guinea and Sao Tome and Principe are also ripe for litigation. Even more likely to lead to conflict are Japanese firm Toyota's plans to build a pipeline from Southern Sudan to the Indian Ocean through Kenya. Even the proposal of this pipeline is likely to raise regional tensions as the planned referendum on Southern Sudanese independence next year means there is much at stake. All of these examples illustrate the increasing role of commercial actors in African political arenas.
This means that the ability of African governments to negotiate with private investors will determine whether Africa's economic renaissance will be peaceful and productive for everyone involved. What is clear is that African governments and business leaders must work together if the continent is to achieve its deserved position in the global economy.
The writers are research associates with Africa Practice, a London-based communications consultancy, and can be reached at hamish.m.stewart@gmail.com.