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By Seema Sengupta
KOLKATA ― The harmful effect of climate change is looming large over India, a predominantly agriculturally driven country.
As the nation reels under the vagary of extreme temperature and a heat wave, the surface air temperature is rising alarmingly at a rate of 0.4 degrees Celsius per century.
The most worrying part of the prediction is the estimated increase in winter and summer temperatures by 3.2 degree and 2.2 degrees Celsius, respectively, by 2050.
Such abnormal rises will surely have an adverse impact on agricultural production in the form of a reduction in total crop cycle duration.
A curtailed crop cycle amounts to a lower yield per unit area that an overpopulated country like India can't afford. Moreover, a constantly rising temperature can induce faster glacial melting in the Himalayan and Hindu Kush mountain ranges resulting in a 40-centimeter rise in the sea level.
This will inundate low-lying areas, swallow coastal marshes and wetlands, erode beaches, exacerbate flooding and increase the salinity of rivers, bays and aquifers. Deltas like the unique Sunderban will be threatened by flooding, erosion and salt intrusion.
Loss of coastal mangroves will not only endanger fisheries but also expose the inland areas to the onslaught of cyclones and tsunamis. Thus, a huge population reliant on riparian resources will be affected by the alteration of water regimes, saltwater intrusions and land erosion.
In a developing and densely populated country like India, climate change puts additional burden on an already overstressed ecological and socioeconomic system due to rapid economic activities.
With an enormous and ever-growing population linked to a diverse natural resources base, India is indeed vulnerable to climate changes and needs to chart out a comprehensive roadmap to tackle this menace.
However, the problem lies in the reimbursement of the additional costs required to contain greenhouse gas emissions directly related to maintaining a sustained economic growth of 8 to 10 percent over the next half century.
Though the Indian constitution mandates protection of the environment and ecology, an enhanced growth rate and primary energy production essential for fulfilling the human development objectives will inevitably involve increased carbon emissions.
In spite of being listed in the top 10 emitters of carbon dioxide, India has been arguing that her per capita emissions is still one sixth of the global average and therefore deserves concessions.
After all, managing an 8-percent growth by limiting the simultaneous increase in energy consumption to only 3.7 percent is no mean achievement. New Delhi is accordingly seeking the transfer of clean technology with intellectual property rights from the developing nations.
It is indeed a matter of grave concern that there exists a wide difference in perception within the international community regarding the threat of climate change. The lack of consensus is creating an inordinate delay in finalizing an agreement to counter the threat unanimously.
In all fairness, the major powers should respect the sentiment of the developing countries, nurturing a strong feeling of being castigated for every environmental malady. The rich and highly industrialized nations with unsustainable consumption patterns must own up to their share of responsibility for climate change.
It is an in controvertible fact that these countries, home to only 25 percent of the total world population, are responsible for emitting 70 percent of carbon dioxide while consuming 75 percent of the total available resources.
At a micro level, a citizen of a developing nation emits approximately 5.5 tons of carbon per year, against the rate of 0.25 tons by that of an Indian.
In view of such disparities, the emphasis should be on achieving equitable emission quotas through equal allocation of global environmental space to everyone breathing the good old air on earth.
We cannot override the fact that India and the developing countries are indeed making significant progress in limiting greenhouse gas emissions through policy adjustments. India for example has taken positive steps in improving the efficiency of energy and industrial production capacity apart from removing subsidies and rationalizing prices.
To improve environmental quality and limit human health hazards from air pollution, New Delhi has a well defined goal of conventional and renewable energy and economic development.
However, the flight of polluting industries from Europe and America to the developing world must be arrested at all cost. It is nothing short of a tragedy that a potentially polluting petrochemical hub will shortly come up on an estuarine island adjacent to the protected Sundarban biosphere reserve.
Unfortunately, an otherwise vocal international community never protested this move despite the fact that the project is based on a manipulated environmental impact assessment report.
Similarly, there seems to be no effort on the part of the administration to check the growing number of polluting sponge iron factories being set up with political connivance.
An equitable climate change regime must focus on these aspects to pin down the errant parties for promoting a clean earth and safeguard future generations from extinction.
Seema Sengupta is a journalist based in Kolkata, India. Her articles have been published by The Tribune, The Telegraph, The Pioneer, The Asian Age and other newspapers. She can be reached at seemasengupta@vsnl.net.
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